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This weekend's college basketball slate is highlighted by big-time games between huge brands. Look no further than Saturday's highly anticipated top-15 showdown between No. 4 Duke and No. 14 North Carolina, which is the headline attraction.

But once you get past the marquee matchups, the stakes arguably get even higher. Though we're still over a month away from Selection Sunday, the 2026 NCAA Tournament bubble is shaping up quite competitively.

To set up the weekend action, we are diving in to what's in store for the 12 teams comprising the Last Four in, First Four Out and Next Four Out in CBS Sports Bracketology. 

Here's the breakdown of where things stand for those squads.

Bracketology Bubble Watch

Virginia Tech

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Next Four Out
Matchup: 12 p.m. Saturday at NC State (Quad 1)

Breakdown: Virginia Tech faces a tough finishing stretch of schedule paved with five games against teams that are projected as at-large teams in the NCAA Tournament. But that's actually good news for the Hokies, who will have plenty of Quad 1 opportunities and only a couple of Quad 3 nothing-burgers that bring little benefit.

Case for: Virginia Tech is 8-6 across Quads 1 and 2 with just one loss outside Quad 1.
Case against: The Hokies rate poorly in predictive metrics, which suggests they may struggle during a tough closing stretch.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 at N.C. State (Q1), 2/11 at Clemson (Q1), 2/14 vs. Florida St. (Q3), 2/17 at Miami FL (Q1), 2/21 vs. Wake Forest (Q2), 2/28 at North Carolina (Q1), 3/3 vs. Boston College (Q3), 3/7 at Virginia (Q1)

Indiana

CBS Sports Bracketology status: First Four Out
Matchup: 12 p.m. Saturday vs. Wisconsin (Quad 2)

Breakdown: Indiana closed January with a home win over Purdue and a road victory over UCLA to give itself two sorely needed Quad 1 victories and greatly bolster its case for an at-large bid. Now it needs two wins during a home stand that starts Saturday with Wisconsin and ends Monday against Oregon. Tuesday's loss at USC was a minor hiccup, but IU has done well to resurrect itself from a four-game mid-January losing streak.

Case for: Indiana has a win over Purdue. IU rates well in predictive metrics
Case against: The Hoosiers are just 1-0 in Quad 2, which means their resume is lacking some depth.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 vs. Wisconsin (Q2), 2/9 vs. Oregon (Q3), 2/15 at Illinois (Q1), 2/20 at Purdue (Q1), 2/24 vs. Northwestern (Q3), 3/1 vs. Michigan State (Q1), 3/4 vs. Minnesota (Q2), 3/7 at Ohio State (Q1)

Missouri

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Last Four in
Matchup: 1 p.m. Saturday at South Carolina (Quad 2)

Breakdown: Missouri's home win over Florida and road win over Kentucky are propping up the Tigers' resume. If it comes down to a decision between Mizzou and someone else for one of the final at-large spots, the committee could rightly point to those wins as evidence of the Tigers' potency to advance in the dance. Another saving grace is that Missouri has no losses outside the top two quadrants. Mizzou would have a bit more breathing room and some stronger analytics-based scaffolding to stand on if it had played something better than the nation's No. 271 nonconference schedule.

Case for: Missouri owns impressive wins over Florida and Kentucky.
Case against: The Tigers are just 4-7 over Quads 1 and 2.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 at South Carolina (Q2), 2/11 at Texas A&M (Q1), 2/14 vs. Texas (Q2), 2/18 vs. Vanderbilt (Q1), 2/21 at Arkansas (Q1), 2/24 vs. Tennessee (Q1), 2/28 at Mississippi St. (Q2), 3/3 at Oklahoma (Q2), 3/7 vs. Arkansas (Q1)

TCU

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Next Four out
Matchup: 2 p.m. Saturday vs. Kansas State (Quad 3)

Breakdown: TCU has dropped six of its last eight games, including an ugly 26-point road loss against middling Colorado last time out. Saturday's game against Kansas State won't bring much resume value, but it offers the Horned Frogs a chance to stabilize before a potential must-win home game against Iowa State on Tuesday.

Case for: TCU neutral-site wins over Florida and Wisconsin from November are aging well.
Case against: A season-opening Quad 4 home loss against New Orleans is a resume drag that will be tough to overcome.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 vs. Kansas St. (Q3), 2/10 vs. Iowa St. (Q1), 2/14 at Oklahoma St. (Q1), 2/17 at UCF (Q1), 2/21 vs. West Virginia (Q2), 2/24 vs. Arizona St. (Q2), 2/28 at Kansas St. (Q2), 3/3 at Texas Tech (Q1), 3/7 vs. Cincinnati (Q3)

Baylor

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Next Four Out
Matchup: 2 p.m. Saturday at No. 7 Iowa State (Quad 1)

Breakdown: Baylor emerged from a stretch of seven losses in eight games to revive its at-large chances by winning must-have games against West Virginia and Colorado. Now the Bears are looking at three straight Quad 1 opportunities, beginning on Saturday with the gargantuan task of playing Iowa State on the road.

Case for: Baylor has three Quad 1 wins and zero losses outside the first two quadrants.
Case against: The Bears don't have a marquee victory and haven't been particularly competitive against top-flight opposition.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 at Iowa St. (Q1), 2/10 vs. BYU (Q1), 2/14 vs. Louisville (Q1), 2/17 at Kansas St. (Q2), 2/21 vs. Arizona St. (Q2), 2/24 vs. Arizona (Q1), 2/28 at UCF (Q1), 3/4 at Houston (Q1), 3/7 vs. Utah (Q3)

Oklahoma State

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Last Four in
Matchup: 4 p.m. Saturday at No. 1 Arizona (Quad 1)

Breakdown: Oklahoma State technically picked up its first Quad 1 win of the season with a marquee victory over BYU this week, but the Cowboys also own strong Quad 2 wins over projected NCAA Tournament teams Texas A&M and UCF. Even though they are lagging a bit in the NET (61), our model likes Oklahoma State as a team that rates in the top 40 across all teamsheet resume metrics. With no losses outside the first two quadrants, the Cowboys are firmly in the hunt to reach the dance for the first time since 2021. Even a competitive loss at Arizona might help the Cowboys rise a bit in performance-based metrics.

Case for: Oklahoma State owns three wins over projected at-large teams.
Case against: the Cowboys are still lagging in predictive metrics.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 at Arizona (Q1), 2/10 at Arizona St. (Q1), 2/14 vs. TCU (Q2), 2/18 vs. Kansas (Q1), 2/21 at Colorado (Q2), 2/24 vs. West Virginia (Q2), 2/28 at Cincinnati (Q2), 3/3 at UCF (Q1), 3/7 vs. Houston (Q1)

Seton Hall

CBS Sports Bracketology status: First Four Out
Matchup: 6 p.m. Saturday at Creighton (Quad 2)

Breakdown: Seton Hall has dropped five of its last seven games, leaving the Big East in the uncomfortable position of having just three teams in the current projected field. A road win over Creighton would be a Quad 2 victory for now. But it's hovering on the brink of Quad 1 territory and would bring a solid boost to Seton Hall's WAB.

Case for: Seton Hall is 5-7 in Quads 1 and 2 and perfect in Quads 3 and 4.
Case against: The Pirates' best win is a neutral-site victory over NC State from Nov. 24.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 at Creighton (Q2), 2/11 vs. Providence (Q3), 2/15 at Butler (Q1), 2/18 vs. DePaul (Q3), 2/21 vs. Georgetown (Q3), 2/28 at Connecticut (Q1), 3/3 at Xavier (Q2), 3/6 vs. St. John's (Q1)

California

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Last Four in
Matchup: 8 p.m. Saturday vs. No. 20 Clemson (Quad 2)

Breakdown: After a 1-4 start to ACC play, Cal has won four of its past five games, a stretch that includes victories over projected NCAA Tournament teams North Carolina and Miami. Still, its spot in the First Four remains tenuous, considering that 13 of its 17 wins are of the Quad 3, Quad 4 or non-Division 1 variety. 

Case for: Three victories against projected tournament teams is a pretty solid haul.
Case against: With a 1-2 Quad 2 record, there isn't much support behind Cal's three Quad 1 wins.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 vs. Clemson (Q2), 2/11 at Syracuse (Q1), 2/14 at Boston College (Q3), 2/21 vs. Stanford (Q3), 2/25 vs. SMU (Q2), 2/28 vs. Pittsburgh (Q3), 3/4 at Georgia Tech (Q3), 3/7 at Wake Forest (Q1)

San Diego State

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Next Four Out
Matchup:  8 p.m. Saturday at Air Force (Quad 4)

Breakdown: Once San Diego State gets through a Quad 4 game against Air Force on Saturday, its next six contests are projected as Quad 1 or Quad 2 games, which will give the Aztecs a shot at bolstering their at-large chances.

Case for: The Aztecs have just one loss outside Quad 1.
Case against: San Diego State's best win came against a Nevada team currently projected to be outside the field of 68.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 at Air Force (Q4), 2/14 vs. Nevada (Q2), 2/17 vs. Grand Canyon (Q2), 2/21 at Colorado St. (Q2), 2/25 vs. Utah St. (Q1), 2/28 at New Mexico (Q1), 3/3 at Boise St. (Q1), 3/6 vs. UNLV (Q3)

New Mexico

CBS Sports Bracketology status: First Four Out
Matchup: 10 p.m. Saturday vs. Boise State (Quad 2)

Breakdown: Wednesday's loss to Utah State in a high-profile Mountain West showdown took some wind out of New Mexico's sails. But with three projected Quad 1 games still ahead, the Lobos have an opportunity to regain their at-large traction. It starts with holding serve at home against Boise State.

Case for: A 6-4 record across Quads 1-2 is solid.
Case against: The Lobos sit outside the top 40 in both resume-based and predictive metrics.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 vs. Boise St. (Q2), 2/11 at Grand Canyon (Q1), 2/17 vs. Air Force (Q4), 2/21 at Fresno St. (Q3), 2/24 at Nevada (Q1), 2/28 vs. San Diego St. (Q2), 3/4 vs. Colorado St. (Q3), 3/7 at Utah St. (Q1)

Saint Mary's

CBS Sports Bracketology status: Last Four in
Matchup: 11:30 p.m. Saturday vs. San Francisco (Quad 3)

Breakdown: Saint Mary's is basically just on landmine-avoidance duty until it closes the regular season with resume-building opportunities against Santa Clara and Gonzaga. With an 0-3 Quad 1 record and zero victories over projected at-large teams, the Gaels are on shaky ground. They remain a top-40 team in resume metrics thanks to the absence of any bad losses.

Case for: Saint Mary's has no bad losses.
Case against: Saint Mary's has no wins over projected at-large teams.

Remaining schedule: 2/7 vs. San Francisco (Q3), 2/11 vs. Pepperdine (Q4), 2/14 at Pacific (Q2), 2/18 at Seattle (Q2), 2/21 at Washington St. (Q2), 2/25 vs. Santa Clara (Q2), 2/28 vs. Gonzaga (Q1)

Ohio State

CBS Sports Bracketology status: First Four Out
Matchup: 1 p.m. Sunday vs. Michigan (Quad 1)

Breakdown: Ohio State is winless in Quad 1 and desperately needs a marquee victory to pair with its top-40 rating in predictive metrics. Beating rival Michigan on Sunday would absolutely fit the bill. If not, four more projected Quad 1 games are still on the Buckeyes' regular season slate. It would be smart for them to win a couple of those as they seek to reach the dance for the first time since 2022.

Case for: Ohio State has only one loss outside of Quad 1, and that was against a UCLA team that is currently expected to make the tournament.
Case against: Ohio State has zero Quad 1 wins.

Remaining schedule: 2/8 vs. Michigan (Q1), 2/11 vs. USC (Q2), 2/14 vs. Virginia (Q1), 2/17 vs. Wisconsin (Q2), 2/22 at Michigan St. (Q1), 2/25 at Iowa (Q1), 3/1 vs. Purdue (Q1), 3/4 at Penn St. (Q2), 3/7 vs. Indiana (Q2)