Bracketology Bubble Watch: Risers and fallers following a day of epic carnage for NCAA Tournament hopefuls
With just a week until Selection Sunday, here's a breakdown of the convoluted bubble picture
Saturday was a day of epic carnage on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a great day for the anti-expansionist crowd. If it's this hard to find 68 deserving teams for the Big Dance, how challenging will it be to find 72 or 76?
With just a week to go until Selection Sunday, the unappealing options for the final at-large spot beg the question: Does anyone want to claim the final at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament?
Among teams in action Saturday, SMU, California, Auburn and New Mexico were the four most closely sandwiching the cutline in CBS Sports Bracketology entering the day. All four lost. So did Indiana, so did Virginia Tech. So did several others on or near the bubble.
Some teams, like SMU, NC State and Missouri, that lost early in the day had their falls padded to a certain extent by the ineptitude of others on the bubble who lost later in the day. If everyone loses, does anyone lose?
A week from Sunday, the field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA Tournament will be revealed. Saturday's struggles from the bubble teams set the stage for what could be an epic conference tournament week. At-large spots are there for the taking. Is anyone willing to step up and grab them?
Here is the bubble picture and a breakdown of the risers and fallers from the weekend:
Last Four In
- Missouri
- VCU
- SMU
- Stanford
First Four Out
- Oklahoma
- Cal
- Auburn
- New Mexico
Others in the race
- Indiana
- West Virginia
- Seton Hall
- Oklahoma State
- Virginia Tech
- Boise State*
*While Boise State's standing in official NCAA team sheet metrics has the Broncos on the outer fringes of the bubble, the Broncos suffered a non-Division 1 against Hawaii Pacific to begin the season that would likely make any legitimate discussion around the Broncos a non-starter. In all likelihood, Boise State's only path to the Big Dance is to win the Mountain West Tournament
📈Bubble risers📈
VCU
CBS Sports Bracketology: Last Four In
VCU's Friday night win at Dayton got overshadowed by Miami (Ohio) completing an unbeaten regular season and the hype surrounding a huge Saturday slate. But the Rams picked up a quality road win on the same weekend that many bubble teams went the opposite direction. Coach Phil Martelli Jr's club has won 14 of its past 15 games. Having zero victories against projected at-large teams is a problem, but the Rams are winning when others around the cut line aren't. That's all they can do.
Texas A&M
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
New coach, same roller-coaster. No high-major program goes through more volatile ups and downs than Texas A&M, which has been streaky since the Billy Kennedy days. First-year coach Bucky McMillan started 7-1 in SEC play, then dropped four straight. But the Aggies will head to the SEC Tournament with four wins in their past six games after outlasting LSU in three overtimes on Saturday. It would be a surprise if A&M isn't dancing.
Miami (Ohio)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 12 seed (autobid)
After completing the regular season 31-0 and seeing a ton of other bubble teams struggle, Miami should feel fantastic about its at-large chances if it doesn't win the MAC Tournament. The RedHawks would almost certainly be a top-40 WAB team, regardless of when a potential MAC Tournament loss occurred. The bigger question is how the selection committee will seed a team whose metrics are all over the map. If predictive metrics are heavily considered, Miami will be a double-digit seed, despite its gaudy record.
TCU
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
TCU was probably safe going into Saturday. After beating Cincinnati 73-63, the Horned Frogs can exhale, knowing they have added some insurance. With eight wins in their past nine games and a resume that includes wins over Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa State and Texas Tech, this is a club no one will want to see on the first weekend of the Big Dance.
Stanford
CBS Sports Bracketology: Last Four In
The Cardinal took an important step by upsetting NC State on the road Saturday. At 5-6 in Quad 1 and 9-8 across the top two quadrants, the Cardinal have some nice wins. But they also have a trio of Quad 3 losses and some work to do in the ACC Tournament. That work will begin with a first round game between the No. 10 seed Cardinal and No. 15 seed Pitt.
Ohio State
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
Ohio State entered March on the wrong side of the bubble but has used a 3-0 start to the month to reach a point where it's almost inconceivable that the Buckeyes could be left out of the field. Saturday's 91-78 win over Indiana will be some nice insurance if the Buckeyes bow out of the Big Ten Tournament early. This team is getting healthy and playing well at the right time.
📉NCAA Tournament bubble fallers📉
Auburn
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
Losing on the road against a quality foe like Alabama wouldn't normally be a huge impediment. But at this point, any loss cuts deep for the Tigers (16-15, 7-11 SEC). While Auburn has a great collection of quality victories, including a road win over projected No. 1 seed Florida, its sheer number of losses is an unavoidable problem. Suppose the Tigers beat Mississippi State in the first round of the SEC Tournament and then upset Tennessee in the second round, who knows? But even two consecutive victories for this team feel like an insurmountable challenge.
Missouri
CBS Sports Bracketology: Last Four In
Missouri had a golden chance to lock itself into the field of 68 on Saturday as it hosted an Arkansas team playing without leading scorer Darius Acuff Jr. The Tigers might be safe anyway, but they missed out on a nice insurance policy by falling 88-84 in overtime against the Razorbacks. The Tigers own wins over Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Texas A&M. You won't find many bubble teams with a more impressive collection of wins. You also won't find many that played a weaker nonconference schedule. Mizzou will head to the SEC Tournament on a two-game losing streak.
Virginia Tech
The Hokies' at-large hopes took a hit with a 76-72 loss at No. 13 Virginia on Saturday. Beating the Cavaliers on the road would have brought an impressive regular-season sweep in the rivalry and added some real life to the Hokies' at-large aspirations. Virginia Tech kept it close the whole second half, but it couldn't get over the hump. Now it will head into the ACC Tournament needing a big run.
SMU
CBS Sports Bracketology: Last Four In
SMU is in a free fall after taking a 91-78 loss at Florida State on Saturday that further imperiled its at-large hopes. It was the fourth straight loss for a Mustangs team that will have work to do at the ACC Tournament if it wants to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2017. This team was once ranked in the AP poll and seemed to be cruising toward a winning season in ACC play as recently as two weeks ago. Now, the Mustangs are 19-12 (8-10 ACC) and will be fighting for their lives on Tuesday when they begin conference tournament play as the No. 11 seed facing No. 14 seed Syracuse.
NC State
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 9 seed
Following an 85-84 home loss to Stanford on Saturday, NC State's NCAA Tournament hopes are teetering on the brink in a way that would have been unthinkable a month ago. Thankfully for them, the rest of the bubble is struggling, too. The Wolfpack are just 19-12 (10-8 ACC) and have dropped six of their past seven games. Two of NC State's best wins -- at SMU and at Clemson -- are also depreciating in value as both those teams have struggled down the stretch. The Wolfpack will get a shot at revenge vs. Stanford on Wednesday if the Cardinal win their first-round game in the ACC Tournament.
Texas
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 9 seed
Texas rallied from a 10-point deficit in the final seven minutes to force overtime against visiting Oklahoma. But the Longhorns ran out of gas in overtime and missed out on a victory that might have nudged them to lock status. UT will have to play on the first day of the SEC Tournament as the No. 10 seed against the No. 15 seed Ole Miss. After losing four of their final five regular-season games, the Longhorns would be wise to avoid a bad loss against the Rebels.
Cal
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
Saturday's 80-73 loss at Wake Forest didn't quite kill Cal since just about everyone else in the Bears' neighborhood lost as well. But gaining the ground that will be needed to stay in the conversation is going to be tough. The Bears will begin the ACC Tournament in the second round against a hot Florida State team and would then have to play No. 1 seed Duke in the quarterfinals. That's a brutal draw.
New Mexico
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
New Mexico stayed within striking distance of Utah State all game as the Lobos tried for a potentially seismic Quad 1 road win. They ultimately fell 94-90 and have dropped three of their past four games entering the Mountain West Tournament. It's been a solid first season for coach Eric Olen, but New Mexico's at-large flame is nearly extinguished. The Lobos are still a top contender to win the league tournament, though.
Indiana
CBS Sports Bracketology: Next Four Out
The rest of the bubble was so bad on Saturday that Indiana, which lost 91-78 at Ohio State, could be interpreted as a riser if you squint hard enough. The Hoosiers have dropped five of their last six games and have no business sniffing the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team unless they make a solid run in the Big Ten Tournament. But they have to put 68 teams in the field. Unless some other squads start winning games, it's easy to imagine the selection committee surveying its horrible options and getting googly eyes for Indiana's pinstripe warmups and the historic success they symbolize.
