Bracketology Bubble Watch: Which teams near the NCAA Tournament cut line need a victory the most?
The bubble picture is congested and tense entering the last weekend of February
The last day of February is packed to the brim with NCAA Tournament bubble intrigue as college basketball's regular season nears its end. Conference tournament action is set to begin in the coming days for a handful of mid-major conferences, and the high-major schools are running short on resume-padding opportunities.
Against that backdrop, Saturday is pivotal. It starts with Seton Hall trying to salvage its at-large hopes at UConn and end with Saint Mary's aiming for a final bit of at-large insurance in the late-night window against Gonzaga. In between, there are myriad consequential games that will shape the picture heading into March.
Among them are a couple of "double bubble" battles, including a showdown between New Mexico and San Diego State on CBS. The Mountain West's bid tally is up in the air, and the results of that one will influence the conference's overall outlook as we creep closer to Selection Sunday.
Later on, Texas and Texas A&M square off in a rivalry showdown that carries even greater stakes than usual. With both programs on the bubble under first-year coaches, intensity will be high as the Longhorns look to even the season series with a road win.
Here is the full rundown of the bubble picture entering Saturday's action.
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next Four Out
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model's latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action Saturday
Seton Hall
at UConn | 12 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Seton Hall has a lot of ground to make up, but beating UConn on the road would cover a nice chunk of it. This would be one of the 10 best victories posted by anyone in college basketball this season, and it would prove to the selection committee that the Pirates are worthy of a hard look. But if Seton Hall can't pull a mammoth upset, this will likely be the end of the road for the Pirates' at-large aspirations.
VCU
vs. Fordham | 12:30 p.m. (USA)
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 4
The Rams are an interesting case study because the average of their resume metrics is hovering in the mid-40s. Generally speaking, that's fringe at-large territory. But there isn't a single victory a projected at-large team, and VCU is just 4-7 across the top two quadrants. Playing Fordham is a nothing-burger, but it gives VCU a chance to reset the vibes after more than a week off since a disappointing loss to Saint Louis.
Missouri
at Mississippi State | 1 p.m. (SEC Network)
Entering the weekend: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 2
Missouri is the perfect example of why you should like at WAB instead of NET. If all you saw was Missouri's No. 58 NET ranking, you might think the Tigers have no business in the at-large conversation. But with a highly respectable No. 35 WAB ranking, Mizzou is actually in decent shape. Coming off a win over Tennessee -- its fifth Quad 1 win -- Missouri would have to fall hard down the stretch to miss the dance.
Clemson
vs. Louisville | 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the weekend: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Four straight losses have dropped Clemson from the ACC title race into the bubble conversation. At 10-7 across Quads 1 and 2, the Tigers are still OK for now. But facing Louisville and North Carolina (Tuesday on the road) isn't the easiest way to get back on track. Clemson likely needs to win two of its final three games to feel good entering the ACC Tournament.
New Mexico
vs. San Diego State | 2 p.m. (CBS)
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 2
New Mexico dropped onto the wrong side of the bubble following a 67-60 Quad 1 loss at Nevada on Tuesday. The Lobos are hovering around 50th in results-based metrics. They will likely need to be in the mid-40s come Selection Sunday to have a realistic chance at inclusion. Any way you slice it, closing the regular season with a win at Utah State would be huge. But evening the season series with San Diego State would keep the Lobos in position along the cut line.
San Diego State
at New Mexico | 2 p.m. (CBS)
Entering the weekend: No. 11 seed (auto-bid)
Game status: Quad 1
The Mountain West could get anywhere from 1 to 3 bids, depending on how things play out for San Diego State and New Mexico. The Aztecs are currently "in" the CBS Sports Bracketology field as the league's automatic bid recipient. But, from an at-large perspective, they are just 53rd in WAB and have work to do. This game is critical because it's the best game the Aztecs have left in the regular season.
UCLA
at Minnesota | 2 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the weekend: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Coming off a blowout loss at Michigan State on Feb. 17, the Bruins had dropped three of five games and two straight by a combined margin of 53 points. Things appeared to be going south in a hurry. But consecutive victories over Illinois and USC have restored UCLA's tournament trajectory. If the Bruins win two of three down the stretch, they will likely head to the Big Ten Tournament in a strong position.
Georgia
vs. South Carolina | 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Entering the weekend: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 3
Georgia is in good shape, but a loss here would change that. Falling at home to a bad South Carolina team would bring an estimated WAB hit of roughly 0.80, which would translate to a 5-7 spot drop in WAB ranking. That would put Georgia in the low-to-mid 40s, which is close to the likely cut line. But if the Bulldogs take care of business against a team they should beat, they'll head into the final week of the regular season on solid footing.
USC
vs. Nebraska | 4 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Entering the weekend: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
It might feel like USC is a lost cause amid a four-game losing streak. But the Trojans have consecutive Quad 1 opportunities ahead, starting Saturday against Nebraska. If they close on a three-game winning streak -- or win 2 of 3 and get some favorable results from other bubble teams -- they could still head to the Big Ten Tournament with some at-large pulse. Pulling that off is going to require some rapid improvement, though, because this team is flunking the eye test.
California
vs. Pitt | 4 p.m. (ACC Network)
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 3
Playing lowly Pitt at home is nothing but a landmine for Cal. It's a no-reward, high-risk proposition, and the Bears better be ready. With wins over four projected tournament teams (UCLA, North Carolina, Miami and SMU), Cal is looking good from a resume perspective. That would change quickly if the Bears slip up against the Panthers.
Texas
at Texas A&M | 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the weekend: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Texas had Florida on the ropes until the final seven minutes on Wednesday. That's when the Gators mashed the gas pedal, showing their elite gear and leaving the Longhorns in the dust. Missing out on a potential resume-defining win was a bummer. Still, Texas should have no problem flushing that and getting up for Texas A&M. After losing its first meeting with the Aggies at home back on Jan. 17, Texas will be out for revenge in a high-intensity "double bubble" battle.
Texas A&M
vs. Texas | 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 2
Seeing Bucky McMillan's high-octane system back in the NCAA Tournament would be entertaining. Remember, his Samford team took Kansas down to the wire during a 2024 first-round game. Now in his first season with the Aggies, McMillan has more talent. But he still needs a couple more wins to feel safe after A&M struggled through a four-game losing skid to open February.
TCU
at Kansas State | 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 2
TCU has won five of its past six games to reach 18-10 (8-7 Big 12) heading into the weekend. The Horned Frogs own a resume that is all over the map. It includes wins over Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa State but losses to Notre Dame, Utah and Colorado. The demonstrated ability to beat high-caliber opposition bodes well for Jamie Dixon's club in the selection discussion, but the Horned Frogs need to win two of three down the stretch.
Santa Clara
vs. Oregon State | 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the weekend: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 4
Santa Clara lost at home to Gonzaga on Feb. 14 and fell at Saint Mary's on Wednesday. The Gaels needed to win one of those two games to feel safe-ish. Now they have to take care of business against Oregon State and then gear up for a potentially tense WCC Tournament. Beating the Zags or Gaels on a neutral floor would be significant for a Santa Clara team that is 1-5 in Quad 1.
Auburn
vs. Ole Miss | 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Entering the weekend: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 3
Generally speaking, a Quad 3 game this time of year is nothing but a needless risk for a team on the bubble. But in Auburn's case, hosting Ole Miss could be viewed as a welcome reprieve. After a stretch of six losses in seven games, Auburn just needs wins. Ole Miss is limping in on a 10-game losing streak, which should allow the Tigers to regain their footing.
Virginia Tech
at North Carolina | 8:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the weekend: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Virginia Tech fans who have seen their team drop four of its past six games might wonder why the Hokies are still showing up in a bubble watch. But beating North Carolina on the road would send Virginia Tech surging back toward the cut line, as it would bring a projected 5-8 spot rise in WAB ranking for the Hokies. A season-ending road game at Virginia is also a big opportunity. It'll take a big upset or two, but the Hokies aren't dead yet.
Saint Mary's
vs. Gonzaga | 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Entering the weekend: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Saint Mary's averages out as a top-30 team across both results-based and predictive metrics looked at by the selection committee. But while the Gaels are 8-1 in Quad 2, they remain winless in Quad 1. Wednesday night's 86-67 home win over Santa Clara was the best win of the season for the Gaels, which is a little concerning. Toppling Gonzaga one last time before the Bulldogs leave for the Pac-12 would make for some great insurance.
Bubble teams in action Sunday
Ohio State
vs. No. 8 Purdue | 1:30 p.m. (CBS)
Entering the weekend: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Ohio State got second-leading scorer John Mobley Jr. back from a three-game injury absence, but the Buckeyes looked flat anyway during a 74-57 loss at Iowa on Wednesday. That was the Buckeyes' last chance to beat an at-large team in a true road environment, and they flunked it. Hosting Purdue marks Ohio State's last guaranteed opportunity to make any sort of statement.
Indiana
vs. No. 13 Michigan State | 3:45 p.m. (ESPN)
Entering the weekend: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Indiana's combined total of four victories across Quad 1 and Quad 2 is the fewest of any high-major team in the top 60 of the NET. That's the bad news. The good news is that IU has wins over projected tournament teams Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin. There are several different ways to interpret this resume, but the Hoosiers desperately need to stop the bleeding after dropping three straight.
