Bracketology: UConn still has challengers for fourth No. 1 seed, can Purdue or Iowa State make a charge?
Here is how the NCAA Tournament picture is shaping up entering Wednesday night's action
With just two and a half weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, it's a near-certainty that Duke, Michigan and Arizona will be No. 1 seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The CBS Sports Bracketology model puts the chances for each of them at 99.8% or better to land on the top line, which adds up since each are 26-2 and have just three regular season games left.
What about the fourth No. 1 seed? Right now, it belongs to UConn as the Huskies prepare for a Wednesday night battle against St. John's. But there are a handful of teams that still have some hope of ending up as the fourth No. 1 seed if UConn falters down the stretch.
The five with a 0.3% chance or better, according to the model, are Purdue (4.7%), Iowa State (3.3%), Houston (2.8%), Florida (0.9%) and Illinois (0.3%). So while UConn is the overwhelming favorite at 88.2% to earn the fourth No. 1 seed, it's not a foregone conclusion.
Getting swept by the Red Storm would truly open up the race for the fourth No. 1 seed again and make things interesting down the stretch. Before we dive in further, here's a look a the top of the Bracketology picture as of Wednesday.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Race for the fourth No. 1 seed
Here is the rundown of the teams in the mix for the final No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.
UConn
WAB rank: 4
KenPom rank: 12
Record: 25-3 (15-2 Big East)
Chance at No. 1 seed: 88.2%
Entering Wednesday night's action, UConn is well ahead of the chase pack in WAB score but well behind the trio of Michigan, Duke and Arizona. In all likelihood, the fourth No. 1 seed is the best UConn can hope for, which means it would likely be stuck playing in the South Region over a more preferable spot such as the Midwest or East. While the Huskies are outside the top-10 at KenPom, that's a "predictive" metric. The selection committee is expected to more heavily weigh results-based metrics when making decisions for who to put on the No. 1 seed line. That's where UConn's solid WAB score -- bolstered by early-season victories over Illinois, Kansas and Florida -- comes into play.
Purdue
WAB rank: 5
KenPom rank: 7
Record: 22-5 (12-4 Big Ten)
Chance at No. 1 seed: 4.7%
Purdue's case is better than you might think considering the Boilermakers have mostly existed outside the No. 1 seed conversation since a three-game losing streak in late January. But when you take the average of the Boilermakers' resume metrics (KPI, Strength of Record, WAB) they are clearly running fifth overall. With solid opportunities against Michigan State, Ohio State (road) and Wisconsin still ahead, a strong finish will have Purdue knocking on the door and ready to pounce if UConn stumbles down the stretch.
Iowa State
WAB rank: 8
KenPom rank: 8
Record: 24-4 (11-4 Big 12)
Chance at No. 1 seed: 3.3%
Iowa State's chance of catching UConn might all come down to Monday night's game at Arizona. If the Cyclones handle Texas Tech on Saturday and then topple the Wildcats on the road, they would start closing the gap on UConn in WAB. Remember, the selection committee placed Iowa State as the fourth No. 1 seed during the bracket preview this past Saturday ahead of UConn and Houston. ISU relinquished its hold with a loss at BYU. But things get interesting if you add wins over Texas Tech and Arizona to a resume that already includes victories over St. John's, Purdue, Kansas and Houston.
Houston
WAB rank: 6
KenPom rank: 6
Record: 23-5 (11-4 Big 12)
Chance at No. 1 seed: 2.8%
Houston's three straight losses to top-flight Big 12 opponents Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas have zapped some life from the Cougars' hopes of earning a No. 1 seed. Because the Cougars have three lower-tier Big 12 opponents left on their schedule, making up significant ground will be tough. Running the table through the Big 12 Tournament and getting some help from UConn and others is the only realistic path here. Even still, there is reason for Houston to fight for positioning within the No. 2 seed line. The further up the seeding hierarchy Houston lands, the better its chances are of playing in the South Region, which culminates in Houston.
Florida
WAB rank: 13
KenPom rank: 5
Record: 21-6 (12-2 SEC)
Chance at No. 1 seed: 0.9%
The Florida team written off by most after a 5-4 start should now be feared. The Gators have operated at an elite level throughout SEC play and still have three more Quad 1 opportunities before the beginning of the SEC Tournament. While reaching the No. 1 seed line would take a wild confluence of events, this time of year is called March Madness for a reason. If nothing else, Florida is well-positioned to rise onto the No. 2 seed line.
Illinois
WAB rank: 9
KenPom rank: 4
Record: 22-6 (13-4 Big Ten)
Chance at No. 1 seed: 0.3%
Three overtime losses by a combined six points in February against projected NCAA Tournament teams probably tanked Illinois' chances at a No. 1 seed. If even one of those outcomes flipped the other direction, the Illini might have a WAB ranking more palatable for the No. 1 seed line. Their predictive metrics certainly suggest they are a No. 1 seed caliber team. Alas, it's (mostly) still about wins and losses and who they came against. That's where this team has come up just a bit short too many times. But with a Friday win over Michigan and a Big Ten Tournament title, you never know.
