The bracket has been updated and there is a change at the top. Virginia is the new overall No. 1 seed, surpassing Villanova after the Cavaliers won at Duke on Saturday. You can hardly find two more similar profiles, but the fact that Virginia's best win came on the road, while the Wildcats' best (Xavier) came at home ended being the difference. For now – the difference between these two is as thin as a Gene Steratore note card.
After the loss, Duke's position on the top line is precarious at best. The comparison with the top No. 2, Xavier, is also very close. The Blue Devils have worse losses, most notably at Boston College, but their wins are better than the Musketeers, especially the one against Michigan State. And, as in the comparison for the overall No. 1, Duke's best wins have all come away from home.
The SEC won the annual challenge with the Big 12 by a 6-4 margin, but it did not help much in terms of the bracket. Kentucky picked up a huge win at West Virginia, the Wildcats' first of any significance away from home this season. Alabama also scored a big victory over Oklahoma at home. However, the other teams near the bottom of the bracket did not fare as well.
Texas A&M got drilled at Kansas, which you might expect, but it was enough to push the Aggies off the bracket. South Carolina is also out after a loss at home to Texas Tech. Missouri dropped off as well, although the Tigers loss came in league action at Mississippi State. All three of those teams now reside among the first four out. They are joined by Boise State from the Mountain West.
Another team that fell out of the bracket is Notre Dame. Few teams have suffered more because of injuries than the Irish, who have been without preseason all-American candidate Bonzie Colson for a month and figure to be without him for another month. Matt Farrell, their top guard, has also been in and out of the lineup while dealing with injuries. Notre Dame was missing three starters in the loss at home to Virginia Tech on Saturday.
The selection committee does take injuries into consideration when it comes to seeding, but teams still have to put together good enough resumes to get selected regardless of their roster issues. That is because the committee does not treat losses by shorthanded teams as anything other than losses. They do not assume a team would have won at full strength. They do not ignore the games. If Notre Dame finishes something like 16-16, but ends the season with Colson and Farrell back and healthy, they will not make the tournament. If the Irish can put together a good enough resume to qualify for selection, then they may get a slight bump in seed – emphasis on slight.
Finally, NC State may be a fun team for the committee to figure out when March rolls around. Few teams have a better collection of wins than the Wolfpack's over Duke, Clemson, North Carolina and Arizona, but the rest of their resume is pretty sketchy. Despite those great wins, NC State is in the 60s in the RPI. A very poor non-conference schedule, which includes losses to Northern Iowa and at home to UNC Greensboro, does not help. The Wolfpack has plenty of chances to solidify their spot in the tournament, but proclamations of that already being a done deal are very premature.