One of the biggest games of the season shakes down Saturday in the desert. No. 6 Kentucky plays No. 7 North Carolina in the CBS Sports Classic in Las Vegas. The game tips at 5:45 p.m. ET. It's probably going to be a very good game -- and it has the potential to be a great one. It's definitely the kind of game you build your evening around. A lot of talent will be on the floor, and John Calipari and Roy Williams are two of the game's best on the sideline.
Let's provide some context -- five things to watch/keep in mind, if you will -- for this game, because it's more than just a riveting tilt between top 10-ranked bluebloods in December. There is some consequence to this one, and a lot of players due for a big performance.
1. It's critical for both teams' No. 1 seed hopes
North Carolina has the No. 9 résumé in college basketball. Kentucky is very clearly outside the top 10. We think of both Kentucky and UNC as No. 1/No. 2 seed-type teams this season, and this game will be a significant data point in a sample size of 30 or so.
It's not do or die, but I can promise you the loser of this game will have a higher mountain to climb in the long run toward getting a No. 1 seed. And getting that seed is important. You're much more likely, statistically, to make a Final Four as a No. 1 seed than any other. Obviously some of this is tied to the fact that No. 1 seeds are really, really good. But they also face the path of least resistance, on average, so landing big wins like this goes a long way toward landing at the top of a quadrant on Selection Sunday. Kentucky lacks an elite win. UNC would have a lovely pair of really good Ws if it beat UK to go with its victory over Wisconsin in the Maui title game.
2. It should a fun, high-scoring affair in the 80s -- minimally
These teams don't mess around with the shot clock. According to KenPom, Kentucky's average time per possession is 13.5 seconds -- good for fourth fastest in America. UNC clocks in at 14.4 seconds, which ranks No. 12 in D-I. Carolina can run the secondary break while UK point guard De'Aaron Fox might be the fastest player in college hoops.
This game will almost certainly finish in the 80s, if not the 90s. Kentucky is averaging 94.4 points, which is third best in America. UNC is averaging 88 points. Plus the teams are fun and they like to share. Kentucky is averaging 20 assists; Carolina is at 18.3. A big part of why college hoops has been so fun this season is due to the offense and star power.
We anticipated the UCLA-UK game would be a lot of fun -- and it came through big-time. That was a 97-92 final. There's no reason why Carolina and Kentucky can't match that.
3. UNC has a frosh playing almost as well as anyone on UK
His name is Tony Bradley, and you've completely missed him. He is turning into a really good freshman. I rank out the top 10 freshmen in America every week, and while Bradley isn't close to sniffing that list, he's undeniably a top-20 newbie in college hoops this season. His per-40-minutes stats are tremendous: 21.5 points, 14.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists on 61 percent shooting.
Bradley's 22.6 offensive rebounding percentage (for the amount of time he is used/on the floor) is the most efficient in all of college basketball. Bradley doesn't get a ton of burn (17.3 minutes per game) but he has been very good when he is on the floor. It would not shock me if Williams put him on the floor for more than 20 minutes Saturday.
UNC will be a good/great team this season because of its vets. That's undeniable. But Bradley could prove to be the vital x-factor as the season goes along. He'll start to drift more into the conversation about UNC as we get to conference play -- or maybe by the end of the weekend. This game offers up a lot of chances for a lot of players to make their mark.
4. The 3-point shooting could be fascinatingly weird
So, this is the fun subplot to this game -- because the teams could just abandon the 3-pointer altogether by halftime. Who knows? But if that happens, it will run in contrast the greater trend of 3-point bombin' that's abundant at all levels of basketball.
Why would it happen? Why would two really good teams, two flagship programs of college hoops, just bail on the long ball? Well, first off, Carolina just doesn't like taking them. Just 23 percent of UNC's offense comes from 3s -- one of the lowest rates in college hoops. Nate Britt, Justin Jackson, Joel Berry and and Kenny Williams are the only players trusted/allowed to take 3s. Even then, UNC's percentage is a workmanlike 36.8 percent.
At this point, Kentucky would kill for 36.8 percent. The Wildcats are shooting 32.4 percent from 3-point range, which is troubling and on pace to match the 2008-09 Memphis squad as the worst-shooting 3-point team Calipari has coached since the turn of the century. Rest easy, UK fans. That Memphis team was a No. 2 seed and dominated its conference. I could easily see Kentucky taking the same path this season.
But yeah, either way, the fun of this game probably won't come from beyond the arc, unless Malik Monk shows up and goes 5 of 8 from deep, which is possible and very much fine by me.
5. Is this Bam's breakout game?
One guy I'm particularly eager to see: Bam Adebayo. I think Kentucky's big man could flirt with being a first-team All-American. To this point, he hasn't been one of Kentucky's three best players. He's doing well (12.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 55 percent from the field) but hasn't yet had a breakout game. He has been Mr. Reliable, putting up a lot of 14-point/eight-rebound type of games, but will we see this projected lottery pick start to dominate? He hasn't had a performance to announced his arrival on a national level -- yet. I think it's coming.
Can he get it against UNC's front court? I think it's on the table -- and that's not a slight against UNC. Adebayo is physical and doesn't back down from a challenge. He can move in the open floor. He'll get a push from Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks, but I think Adebayo is a better player than both of those guys in the post. He is a load to handle. What's more, Adebayo has dodged foul trouble most of the season. That could prove essential to Kentucky's chances Saturday.
The Wildcats have had big games from Monk and Fox, and Isaiah Briscoe is not to be overlooked. But Bam might hold the key. Watch how UNC bodies up on him, and be on the lookout for how Calipari uses him in the offense. I'm not convinced the guards are going to determine the outcome of this highly anticipated Vegas show.
