NC State vs. Virginia odds, prediction: 2026 ACC Tournament quarterfinal picks from proven model
SportsLine's model simulated NC State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers and revealed its college basketball picks for this 2026 ACC Tournament quarterfinal matchup
The seventh-seeded NC State Wolfpack will now face the second-seeded Virginia Cavaliers for the third time this season after beating Pitt 98-88 on Wednesday. Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC) has swept the regular-season series 76-61 and 90-61 over NC State (20-12, 10-8 ACC). The Cavaliers ended the season winning 11 of their last 12 games while the Wolfpacks broke a four-game slide with the win over Pitt. The Wolfpacks appear to be in the tournament, but a win over the Cavaliers would solidify this and possibly a better seed. The Cavaliers are having a great season with their only losses coming to UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, and Butler.
Tip-off from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., is set for noon ET. NC State leads the all-time series 87-72, but Virginia has won both games this season handily. The Cavs are 6.5-point favorites in the latest NC State vs. Virginia odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 148.5. Before making any Virginia vs. NC State picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has simulated Virginia vs. NC State 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for NC State vs. Virginia:
NC State vs. Virginia spread: | Virginia -6.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook |
NC State vs. Virginia over/under: | 148.5 points |
NC State vs. Virginia money line: | NC State +213, Virginia -264 |
NC State vs. Virginia picks: | |
NC State vs. Virginia streaming: | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top NC State vs. Virginia predictions
SportsLine's model has simulated UVA vs. NC State 10,000 times and is going Over on the total (148.5 points). The Over has hit in four of the Wolfpack's last five games. NC State is also 11-4 to the Over on neutral site games.
The model projects the Cavaliers to have three players score 11.9 points or more, including Thijs Ds Ridder, who is projected to score 15.2 points. The Wolfpacks are projected to have four players score 12 points or more, led by Darrion Williams, who is projected to score 14.1 points. The model is projecting 153 combined points.
How to make Virginia vs. NC State picks
The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins NC State vs. UVA and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Virginia vs. NC State spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.
