After the opening week of the college basketball season featured just one team (Arizona) inside the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25 poll losing, this week provided some serious drama. On Tuesday, No. 2 Duke lost to No. 5 Michigan State in the Champions Classic. Hours after that result went final, No. 16 Texas Tech knocked off No. 3 Illinois at home.
With Duke and Illinois going down, it marked the first time in the last 20 years that two top-three teams in the AP poll both lost in wire-to-wire fashion on the same day. Duke and Illinois should both drop a few spots in the rankings, while Michigan State should be the greatest beneficiary of those results.
In our latest projections, Michigan State moves all the way up to No. 2 in the poll. Also receiving a boost: Virginia. The Cavaliers won a hard-fought game against Maryland on the road after trailing by double digits in the opening half. In our projections, Virginia moves up two spots to No. 4 in the rankings.
A team that definitely won't be in this week's poll: Kentucky. The previous No. 24-ranked Wildcats lost to Kansas in the Champions Classic and needed a last-second 3-pointer from Alex Wilkins to avoid what would've been a historic loss against Northern Arizona at home.
While Kentucky will drop out, LSU is a team that will receive serious consideration to be ranked in this week's poll. Will Wade's Tigers recorded an upset win over No. 14 Gonzaga to improve to 4-0. LSU hasn't been ranked in the AP poll since 2022.
Here is how we project the rest of the poll to look on Monday, starting with Florida.
1. Florida
Florida went on the road and recorded an impressive 81-72 win over in-state foe Florida State, behind 21 points and 10 rebounds from preseason All-American Thomas Haugh. The Gators cruised to an 83-54 win over Merrimack at home to improve to 4-0. Florida should be close to unanimous No. 1 this week. Last week: 1
2. Michigan State
Michigan State recorded the most impressive result of the young season with its 79-73 victory over Duke in wire-to-wire fashion. MSU's physicality on both ends of the floor overwhelmed Duke. The Spartans will almost certainly move inside the top three this week. Last week: 5
3. UConn
I could see the voters favoring UConn at No. 2 because they were ranked ahead of MSU to start the week. However, UConn will likely remain at No. 3 despite recording an impressive 84-68 win of its own against Ohio State. UConn has a very intriguing matchup coming up against Arizona on the road. Last week: 3
4. Virginia
After trailing by 11 points at halftime against Maryland on the road, the Cavaliers used a huge second half to avoid the upset. Virginia guard Sam Lewis scored a game-high 28 points in the 87-83 win, marking this third game with at least 20 points this season. The last time Virginia was ranked inside the top five of the AP Top 25 poll was December 2022. Last week: 6
5. Texas
Texas improved to 4-0 with a 75-72 win over in-state foe Baylor on Sunday behind 26 points from Isaiah Johnson. The Longhorns are set to move up into the top-five after the win, which would mark the first time that has happened since the 2022-23 season. Last week: 7
6. Houston
Houston moved to 3-0 after picking up a 94-55 win over La Salle. The Cougars will play Rutgers in the opening game of the Players Era Festival next week. Last week: 8
7. UCLA
UCLA improved to 3-0 after a 106-37 win at home over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. UCLA freshman Nikola Kusturica finished with 17 points, three assists and two steals in just 23 minutes. Last week: 9
8. Duke
The result against Michigan State should be a wake-up call for Jon Scheyer's team ahead of a brutal stretch of games which includes matchups against Illinois, UConn and Florida during the next month. The Blue Devils will have to play better at home against a very good Illinois squad this week. Last week: 2
9. Texas Tech
From a pure talent perspective, Texas Tech is a top 10 team in the sport. In our power rankings, I had the Red Raiders No. 4. The voters, despite Texas Tech picking up a huge win at home over Illinois, likely won't vote them that high in the AP poll. Nonetheless, Texas Tech will likely jump into the top 10. Last week: 16
10. Illinois
After losing to Texas Tech earlier in the week, the Fighting Illini responded with a blowout 108-86 win over Sam Houston. Illinois is still playing without preseason All-American David Mirkovic. His timeline remains unclear. A big showdown against Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium looms. Last week: 3
11. Kansas
Kansas will receive a boost in the rankings this week after picking up an 89-69 win over Kentucky in the Champions Classic. It's unclear how good the Wildcats actually are (as shown by their performance against Northern Arizona). Still, Kansas looks great and should be rewarded for its effort. Last week: 15
12. Arizona
I'm very curious what the voters do with Arizona this week. The Wildcats deserve to stay where they were ranked (No. 12). However, after Texas Tech, Vanderbilt and Kansas all picked up big wins, I could see them both jumping Arizona. The Wildcats are coming off a big road win over Auburn, which should help their case. Last week: 12
13. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt should make one of the biggest jumps of any team outside the top 10 this week. Vandy cruised to a 105-82 win over Memphis at home. The Commodores are 4-0 and have a favorable nonconference schedule until SEC play begins. Last week: 22
14. St. John's
St. John's is in action on Sunday night against Syracuse. Last week: 13
15. Tennessee
As I wrote last week and in our power rankings, I still don't know what to make of Tennessee. The Vols are still trying to learn how to play together. A win is a win, but an 83-78 victory over Tennessee State won't cut it if the Vols want to be a legit threat in the SEC. Last week: 11
16. Miami
Since losing to No. 1 Florida in the season opener, the Hurricanes have won three consecutive games. Miami should hold firm at No. 17 this week. Last week: 17
17. Alabama
Alabama star Aden Holloway made his return to the lineup for the first time this season and finished with 12 points. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ahead of matchups against Kennesaw State and Baylor. Last week: 18
18. Louisville
Louisville led by as many as 18 points against Memphis before collapsing. The Cardinals suffered a 20-point loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Memphis mounted the fourth-largest comeback against an AP top-10 opponent in the last 15 years. Last week: 10
19. Arkansas
Arkansas freshman Davion Thompson put together two impressive performances off the bench last week during wins over Central Arkansas. Thompson recorded 15 total assists, while turning the ball over just once. The Razorbacks are 2-0 since a loss to Virginia last weekend. Last week: 19
20. Michigan
The reigning national champions picked up an impressive win at home over Marquette this week. It came days after Michigan suffered its first loss in a rematch of last season's national title game. Last week: 20
21. USC
USC improved to 3-0 after defeating former Pac-12 foe Cal on the road behind another standout performance from sophomore Alijah Arenas. The former five-star recruit from the 2025 recruiting cycle is averaging 23.3 points per game this season. Last week: 21
22. LSU
Maybe there was a method to Will Wade's madness. The Tigers made a statement on Saturday with a win over Gonzaga in Spokane after Donovan Dent knocked down a go-ahead 3-pointer in the final seconds. There was never a question about the talent LSU had. It was just going to come down to who was and wasn't eligible. The early returns are positive. Last week: NR
23. Gonzaga
After losing to LSU, Gonzaga is set to take a hit in the rankings this week. The Bulldogs looked good in their win against Purdue on opening night. However, the door is open for LSU to enter the rankings and jump Gonzaga after a dramatic win. Last week: 14
24. BYU
One of the most impressive freshmen in the country this season has been Bruce Branch III. The former five-star is averaging 14.8 points and 5.0 rebounds this season for the 4-0 Cougars. Last week: 23
25. Nebraska
Last week, I had Saint Louis in the projected rankings. However, the voters opted for Nebraska for the final spot. Saint Louis received the second-most votes in the "receiving votes" section. With Kentucky projected to drop out and Memphis losing to Vanderbilt, the door could be open for Saint Louis to enter the poll. However, the voters will likely stick with Nebraska at this spot. Last week: 25
