Sometimes hot starts in non-league play can be foreshadowing of a great run in league play. Other times, however, scorching starts can be a mirage for myriad of reasons -- sometimes because of a weak schedule that can inflate an overall record, or even perhaps a team's lack of depth that isn't spotlighted against inferior opponents.
Whatever the case, there's typically evidence that points to the potential fall of these teams. So today, we'll run through seven that could be in line to regress in conference play after successful non-conference runs.
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Current record: 10-1 Projected regular-season record: 13-16 The Hoyas' 10-1 record is a bit of a mirage. Patrick Ewing's bunch has found much success, but its come against inferior competition and one of the weakest non-league schedules among, well, everyone. KenPom rated Georgetown's non-conference strength of schedule at 351 (out of 351). So while 10-1 is great, it's not likely to be a true indicator for a Georgetown team that will face some adversity in Big East play. It can only go downhill from here. | |
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Current record: 10-2 Projected regular-season record: 15-16 The Cowboys are off to a scorching 10-2 start, including a win over No. 19 Florida State a week ago. Not bad for a team picked in the preseason to finish last in the Big 12. However, new coach Mike Boynton inherited a depleted roster overall - and one that became even thinner recently when he parted ways with veteran wing Davon Dillard and talented former four-star guard Zack Dawson. Depth is now a major concern as the Pokes gear up for conference play in the best top-to-bottom league in America. | |
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Current record: 11-1 Projected regular-season record: 16-15 Even amid an FBI probe that seemingly had thrust coach Bruce Pearl onto the hot seat, the Tigers are off to an incredible 11-1 start. However, Auburn's non-conference strength of schedule which ranks 199 could prove to be fool's gold, too. The Tigers' biggest win to date is over a solid Middle Tennessee team on a neutral, but they also lost to Temple in their toughest test of the season thus far - a team that will be a borderline NCAA Tournament team. With no Austin Wiley or Danjel Purifoy now or for the foreseeable future, quality depth is also a concern and it could give the Tigers fits in the heart of their SEC slate. | |
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Current record: 11-1 Projected regular-season record: 17-13 The Seminoles are the surprise of the Sunshine State this season. With an 11-1 record that includes a beat down of cross-state foe Florida, Florida State's acting as if it didn't just lose Dwayne Bacon and Jonathan Isaac to the NBA, thanks to a gigantic junior jump from talented wing Terance Mann. The 'Noles, however, are devoid of experience. They are ninth out of 15 in the ACC in total experience according to KenPom, and continue to rely heavily on underclassmen contributions from M.J. Walker and Mfiondu Kabengele, which all but ensures that they will be somewhat inconsistent this season. Leonard Hamilton's unit has a defense, though, that will keep FSU in games it has no business competing in. | |
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Current record: 9-2 Projected regular-season record: 13-17 Iowa State's a shell of what it was last season after being ravaged by departures from a senior unit that included Naz Long, Monte Morris and Deonte Burton, and are still finding its identity in 2017 under Steve Prohm. The Cyclones opened the season 0-2 and have reeled off nine-straight, however, and they've been plenty fun riding the talent of freshman Lindell Wiggington. But against Big 12 foes, the dynamic backcourt duo of he and Donovan Jackson will only take them so far. | |
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Current record: 10-3 Projected regular-season record: 16-15 The Michael Porter-less Tigers have raced out to a 10-3 start. But this team was crafted around the projected one-and-done, and there's no promise that he'll make a return this season -- despite him leaving the door open for it. Missouri's got the goods and construction of a team with NCAA Tournament talent, but a bad neutral court loss to Illinois this week might be an indicator of bad things to come for the Tigers in a loaded SEC. | |
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Current record: 11-1 Projected regular-season record: 17-14 Mississippi State was among the ranks of the unbeatens through November before Cincinnati tripped-up the Bulldogs, and with an 11-1 record, they are likely to be 12-1 entering SEC play in the new year. That record however, much like Georgetown's, is a bit of an illusion. Mississippi State's only tilt against a ranked opponent was against the Bearcats, and Ben Howland's team won't catch much of a break on a nightly basis in league play facing the likes of Kentucky, Florida and Texas A&M. Perhaps the Bulldogs can maintain their pace and dance their way into the back end of the NCAAs, but they've got an uphill battle with no scholarship seniors and a talented, yet young core that will face growing pains in league play. | |