The 125th edition of The Army vs. Navy Game takes center stage of the college football world this weekend, officially putting a cap on the 2024 regular season. While any college football fan worth their salt would watch the game regardless, there's certainly no harm in some recreational entertainment!
So, whether you're rooting for Army or Navy, you can also root for yourself to make money. Here are some of the best I'm looking at for Saturday's game.
The spread
By and large, the games between these two are close; when you consider that both are option teams, it's understandable. Both teams put together long drives that chew clock, which makes it difficult for one to pull away from another unless things go seriously wrong for one side. Over the last 13 meetings, only three finished with a margin of two scores or more.
So when this is the case, you almost always want to lean toward the underdog. Not this year. Both teams had excellent seasons, but Army has been the best of the two all season, and I think the Knights have a serious edge here. One of the determining factors in every game between option teams is turnovers.
Again, possessions are limited, and there are so many moving parts on each play mistakes are bound to happen. Yet, for Army, they haven't. Army has turned the ball over only five times this season, the lowest turnover rate in the nation, and making matters more difficult for opponents, teams have only scored seven points off those five turnovers. So even when Army has lost the ball, it hasn't been punished for the error.
The combination of Army's ball security and the ceaseless battering ram that is Bryson Daily and Kanye Udoh should prove too much for the Midshipmen. Pick: Army -6.5 (-115)
The total
There's only one path to take here, even if it's intimidating. Since 2005, the under has been an ATM in games between service academies. Seriously, it's 47-11-1. If you'd blindly bet the under in every single one of these games in that timespan, you'd have a lot of extra spending cash. You may have even put yourself or somebody else through college doing so.
The explanation is simple, and it goes in line with what I mentioned earlier about why the games are so close. Both teams run the ball nearly exclusively. The game clock doesn't stop after a run. So you see a lot of eight to 10-play drives between the teams that chew up half the quarter or more. That means there are fewer possessions in these games, and fewer possessions means fewer opportunities to score. Even three-and-outs tend to take three minutes off the game clock. Pick: Under 39.5
Props
Bryson Daily to score 2+ touchdowns (-110): Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is a Heisman Trophy finalist, but he does not lead the nation in rushing touchdowns. He's tied with Daily at 29, and odds are very strong Daily will finish the regular season with more rushing scores than Jeanty by the time this game ends. But what's the fun in betting Daily to score only once?
Daily has played in 11 games this season and scored at least two touchdowns in 10 of them. The only time he didn't was against FAU early in the season. Statistically, Daily is more likely to score at least three touchdowns than he is only one.
Blake Horvath Under 96.5 Passing Yards (-114): Horvath started the season airing it out a bit for the Midshipmen. While he didn't drop back to throw a lot, Horvath did so more than we typically expect, and he was rarely dinking and dunking. As a result, Horvath threw for at least 100 yards in seven of Navy's first eight games, but we don't know how healthy he is in this game. He threw for only 58 yards in a win against USF and was hurt the following week against Tulane. Horvath left the game after being tackled and landing on his throwing shoulder. He did not return to the game, nor did he play in Navy's last game against East Carolina.
If he does play in this game, he may be doing so at less than 100%, and that will impact his ability as a passer.
