Computer model reveals conference championship college football picks, best bets for Dec. 5

SportsLine's model reveals its Week 15 college football picks and best bets for 2025 Conference Championship Games on Friday, December 5

By Owen OBrien

Dec 4, 2025 at 4:17 pm ET • 4 min read

Imagn Images

Conference Championship week begins on Friday with four Group of Five contests, with at least one of these four conference champions guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff. The current College Football Playoff rankings would indicate that team is most likely the winner of the American Athletic Championship between No. 24 North Texas and No. 20 Tulane, as the two highest-ranked teams playing on Friday from the CFP polls. North Texas is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest college football odds despite being the lower-ranked team in the CFP polls. The other Friday conference championship games feature Kennesaw State (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship on CBS Sports Network at 7 p.m. ET, Troy vs. No. 25 James Madison (-23.5) in the Sun Belt, and UNLV vs. Boise State (-3.5) in the Mountain West.

The SportLine Projection Model has found values in all four of these conference championship games. Rather than backing a side for the AAC Championship showdown between Tulane and North Texas, the model finds the best value in playing Over 66.5 total points scored. The model is also backing Over 58.5 points in Boise State vs. UNLV, while projecting value a pair of underdogs in Jacksonville State (+2.5) and Troy (+23.5) for Friday's conference championship best bets. Before locking in your college football picks, be sure to check out the top college football betting picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

New users can also utilize the latest BetMGM bonus code, which gives new users up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line and over/under picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

New users can also target the FanDuel promo code, which offers $150 in free bets if your first $5 bet wins:

Friday conference championship best bets for Friday, Dec. 5 (odds subject to change):

Jacksonville State (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State
Troy (+23.5) vs. James Madison
North Texas vs. Tulane: Over 66.5 points
UNLV vs. Boise State: Over 58.5 points

Combining the model's three picks into a Friday conference championship parlay would result in a payout of +1202 (risk $100 to win $1202). Bet it now at Caesars Sportsbook:

Jacksonville State (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State (-110)

Jacksonville State, the defending Conference USA champions, won this regular-season matchup, 35-26, on its home turf, which is where the Conference USA Championship Game will be played. The Gamecocks went 5-0 at home this season, and they'll have homefield advantage for the biggest game of the season. Kennesaw State went 9-3 overall and 7-1 in the conference, with its only loss coming to Jacksonville State, which also went 7-1 in Conference USA. Jacksonville State has the nation's leading rusher in Cam Cook, who has 1,588 rushing yards on 45.7 yards per carry this season. Cook rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown, and dual-threat quarterback Caden Creel threw for 137 yards and rushed for 127 yards and two touchdowns in their regular-season matchup. The model projects Jacksonville State to cover in 70% of simulations on Friday.

Troy (+23.5) vs. James Madison (-105)

Troy, the West Division champions, meets James Madison, the top team on the East side, in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Troy has won two of the last three Sun Belt championships, but James Madison joining the conference brings a strong, growing program into the Sun Belt Championship picture. These two teams didn't meet during the regular season, where Troy went 8-4 (6-2), and James Madison went 11-1 (8-0). Troy has only lost one game by more than 23 points this season, and it played Clemson tough in a 27-16 non-conference matchup, so it has been tested against stronger programs as well. The model projects Troy to cover in 61% of simulations.

North Texas vs. Tulane: Over 66.5 points (-110)

North Texas has the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 46.4 points per game. The Mean Green are second in the nation in passing yards per game (324.5) behind freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker. He has 3,835 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and four interceptions this season as the Mean Green have scored more than 50 points in three straight games and five of their last six contests. Meanwhile, Tulane can score as well, posting at least 26 points in five straight games. The model projects the Over to hit in 55% of simulations.

UNLV vs. Boise State: Over 58.5 points (-108)

These two teams went significantly Over this total during their regular-season meeting, which resulted in a 56-31 win for Boise State. They combined for 1,034 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the model expects the offenses to outshine the defenses again in the Mountain West Championship Game. Maddux Madsen threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns for Boise State, and he'll return after missing the last month with a leg injury. Dylan Riley rushed for 201 yards on 13.4 yards per rush for the Broncos in that contest. Anthony Colandrea, who has thrown for more than 3,000 yards this season, passed for 215 yards, rushed for 87 yards, and had three total touchdowns for UNLV against Boise State. The model projects the Over to hit in 63% of simulations.