Something has to give in the 2025 Orange Bowl on Thursday as No. 6 Penn State faces No. 7 Notre Dame. Not only is a spot in the CFP National Championship Game on the line, but these programs are deadlocked in all-time matchups. The series is tied 9-9-1, and this will be their first-ever meeting with both teams in the AP Top 10. Penn State (13-2) notched CFP wins over SMU and Boise State to get on the cusp of playing for a championship, while Notre Dame (13-1) secured playoff victories over Indiana and Georgia.
Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The Irish are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Penn State vs. Notre Dame odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. Before making any Notre Dame vs. Penn State picks or Orange Bowl 2025 predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine college football expert Adam Silverstein has to say, given his mastery of picks in games involving Penn State.
CBS Sports' managing editor, Silverstein is also one of SportsLine's top football experts and he has been especially dialed on in on Penn State picks, going 16-2 (+1375) on his last 18 selections. Anyone following him at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, Silverstein has locked in on Penn State vs. Notre Dame and just revealed his coveted Orange Bowl picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Notre Dame vs. PSU:
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame spread: Penn State +2.5
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame over/under: 45.5 points
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame money line: Penn State +117, Notre Dame -140
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Penn State vs. Notre Dame streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Penn State can cover
Penn State enters in with a two-day rest advantage, which is crucial especially after Notre Dame just played a physical Georgia team. The Nittany Lions don't rely on finesse either, as Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton is the only RB duo to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in FBS this season. With them leading the way, Penn State ranks in the top five amongst all Power Four teams in rushing yards per game and yards per carry.
The strength of Penn State, however, lies on the other side of the ball. It possesses top-10 national rankings in scoring defense, total defense and yards per play allowed, and PSU leads all teams in the all-important redzone defense. Stifling Notre Dame in the red zone could be the difference in the game considering that the Irish struggle in the kicking game, ranking dead last out of 134 FBS teams in field goal percentage (54.2%). That's not an issue for Penn State as kicker Ryan Barker converts 82.4% of his field goal attempts, including being perfect on all FGAs under 40 yards. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why Notre Dame can cover
For as good as Notre Dame has been on the field, the Irish are just as impressive versus the spread, as they've gone 11-2-1 against the line. That's the second-best spread record in the nation, and that only tells part of the story of Notre Dame versus the line. They are undefeated ATS over their last 10 games, have covered in all seven of their games away from home, and they're facing a PSU squad which is winless ATS in two games as an underdog this season.
In between the lines, no team can match Marcus Freeman's unit when it comes to balance on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame ranks among the top three in FBS in both scoring offense and scoring defense, dominating in both the trenches and with the passing game. The Irish rank second, nationally, with 6.1 yards per rush and possess arguably the best secondary in college football, allowing the lowest completion percentage in the country. Also, Notre Dame ranks second in the nation in turnover margin per game, which may be the most important stat in football. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Penn State vs. Notre Dame picks
Silverstein has analyzed Notre Dame vs. Penn State from every possible angle. He's leaning Under for the total and has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. Find out what it is, and which team to back, at SportsLine.
So who wins Penn State vs. Notre Dame in Thursday's College Football Playoff in the Orange Bowl, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Notre Dame vs. Penn State spread to back, all from the expert who is an outstanding 16-2 on picks involving Penn State, and find out.
