By the end of September, there was consistent enthusiasm among NFL personnel staffers regarding certain college quarterbacks and their future as NFL draft prospects.
It was enthusiasm -- based on the standout play of a few specific quarterbacks -- that was shared unprompted by a combination of NFL player personnel directors, college scouting directors and scouts during conversations with CBS Sports.
Except it hasn't been about the quarterbacks that those NFL personnel staffers originally expected to be talking about at this point. As was the case in the media space, there was a feeling around the NFL personnel world heading into the season that there were a number of quarterbacks with a chance to be early-round picks in next year's draft, including several that at that point they believed had first-round (and possibly early first-round) potential. The consistent belief going into the season was that it was a good year if you were an NFL team that needed a quarterback and that it could end up being one of the stronger QB draft classes in recent years.
That's no longer the case. Instead, the universal belief in the NFL space is that most of these quarterbacks once viewed as intriguing 2027 prospects are probably better off returning to college for another season instead of leaving for the NFL. Frankly, and justifiably so, the two quarterbacks that NFL staffers have been talking about most with that aforementioned enthusiasm aren't even eligible to turn pro for another year -- Alabama's Keelon Russell and Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor.
"It's kind of like the top guys are kind of falling off, and then it's really like the young guys that you're more excited about right now," an NFL college scouting director told CBS Sports.
Among NFL personnel staffers that CBS Sports has spoken with in the last week, there are only two quarterbacks at this point who consistently came up as essentially first-round locks: Oregon's Dante Moore and Miami's Darian Mensah, whose play (17 total touchdowns and no interceptions through five games) has led to him going from a perceived first-round possibility entering the year to one college scouting director now seeing him as being a top-15-pick-type player.
Aside from Mensah, however, most of the other QBs once viewed as possibilities to go in the early rounds of next year's draft have either been inconsistent, outright struggled or -- in some cases -- simply have NFL staffers believing they'd benefit from additional growth at the college level before turning pro.
Even Moore, who is still generally regarded as QB1 among NFL staffers, is slightly stock down at the moment. That comes after an NFL player personnel director told CBS Sports during the summer that he was even more impressed with Moore's 2025 tape than he was expecting to be, to the point that he said Moore may have even pushed Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft had he turned pro coming out of last season. However, Moore was up and down to start this year, including a 14-of-29 performance during a loss to Oklahoma State. He's also now out after suffering a concussion against USC Sept. 26, although -- on a positive note -- he's back practicing and is expected to return to game action at some point.
There are still others that at least some NFL personnel staffers think could end up being first-round picks too, for example, Texas' Arch Manning, Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, but the reviews on them are mixed at the moment. Also, while Chambliss is out of eligibility, all of the other top quarterback prospects have remaining college eligibility and for the most part the belief in the NFL space is that those other players would be better off staying in school.
That includes Manning, who one NFL national scout compared to college Bo Nix.
"Class is average," an NFL college scouting director said. "Lot of names. Not a lot of (high-level) players to be honest. … Take the money when you can. If you're getting paid $6 million to play in college, why leave?"
Among the other draft-eligible players with remaining eligibility who've intrigued NFL personnel staffers: Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker and Missouri's Austin Simmons, who has become a hot name of late, especially after throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns during the Tigers' 45-17 win over Florida last week.
However, Mestemaker -- who didn't start in high school -- is in his first season as a Power Four starter after beginning his college career at North Texas. Simmons, meanwhile, is in his first true season as a college starter considering he only made two starts at Ole Miss last year before suffering an injury and being replaced as the Rebels' starter by Chambliss.
In the last 14 NFL drafts, the only one-year college starters selected in the first round have been Ty Simpson this year, Anthony Richardson in 2023, Mac Jones in 2021, Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins in 2019 and Mitchell Trubisky in 2017.
While it's too early to judge Simpson, the results have obviously been collectively underwhelming with the rest of that group.
It factors into why NFL teams are reluctant to take QBs with limited college starting experience in the first round and also, even beyond Mestemaker and Simmons, why NFL personnel staffers believe that quarterbacks as a whole would be smart to continue to grow in the college space unless they're a slam-dunk top prospect, especially considering the money that these players are now making at the college level.
Also, simply put, the feedback gathered by CBS Sports on the rest of the draft-eligible quarterbacks hasn't been in the first-round range. QBs like LSU's Sam Leavitt and USC's Jayden Maiava seem to generally be regarded as Day 2-type prospects. NFL staffers aren't as high on Ohio State's Julian Sayin as some in the media space. Meanwhile, others such as South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers and Minnesota's Drake Lindsey have been referred to by NFL personnel staffers as being stock down at this point.
One veteran who's come up as an interesting figure is Nico Iamaleava, who's started at UCLA the last two seasons following his ugly divorce with Tennessee, but he's probably more in the Day 2 or early Day 3 range as well. While he "has intriguing tools," according to one college scouting director, that same college scouting director also noted instinctual questions with Iamaleava.
"Kind of a Kaepernick vibe (as a passer)," he said.
It all contributes to this 2027 quarterback not being the elite collection of prospects it was once projected to be, although -- funny enough -- it's shaping up to where there will now likely be similar preseason feelings all over again next year about the 2028 quarterback group based on the play of Russell and Taylor along with the possibility of Manning, Carr and/or others such as Mestemaker and Simmons continuing to progress and returning to college.
"A few months ago, everyone was like 'This is a class. This is a class,'" an NFL national scout said. "You know how it goes. We do this every year. And we'll probably do it again next year now with all of these guys probably going back to school and then you've got guys like Kamario and Russell coming, so we'll just be doing it all over again."
