Michigan reached the mountaintop of college football for the first time since 1997 last season. If the preseason AP Top 25 is any indication, the Wolverines will have a difficult ride making it back in 2024. The Wolverines became the lowest-ranked preseason reigning national champion in the AP Top 25 since 2011 after beginning the year at No. 9 in Monday's preseason poll. The mark ranks as the worst since 2011 Auburn, which went into its title defense at No. 23 without Heisman-winning quarterback Cam Newton.
Of course, Michigan is the first national championship team to lose its coach since 1997, when co-champion Nebraska coach Tom Osborne retired. The next year, the Cornhuskers started No. 4 but ended at No. 19 with a 9-4 overall record. Michigan similarly handed the reins to an assistant coach, Sherrone Moore, but the Wolverines have a unique challenge ahead.
Michigan is far from the only team to earn some history. No. 4 Texas earned its top preseason ranking since 2009 after earning a trip to the 2023 CFP, while No. 3 Oregon matched its top preseason ranking in program history. Conversely, Alabama at No. 5 is the lowest preseason ranking since 2009 in the post-Nick Saban era, while No. 14 Clemson picked up its lowest preseason ranking since 2014.
Here are other key notes and facts to watch from the 2024 preseason AP Top 25.
Who will fall from the top 10?
In 20 of the past 21 seasons, a team that started the year in the top 10 ended up falling all the way out of the field. That may become less common in an era when the SEC and Big Ten have so many advantages over the field. However, the case for Michigan is straightforward after the Wolverines lost nearly their entire offense and most of their leadership. Similarly, Florida State cleared the deck and still earned a preseason No. 10 ranking. The Seminoles have a manageable road in the ACC, but replicating a top-five season from a year ago will be difficult.
Outside of the obvious candidates, though, the rest of the field is fascinating. It's nearly impossible to imagine Georgia, Ohio State or Oregon failing to finish as College Football Playoff teams with the firepower each bring back. Penn State has also set a consistent bar for itself and has a hilariously easy schedule with only one opponent (No. 2 Ohio State) ranked higher than No. 23 in the preseason poll.
Notre Dame has finished outside of the top 15 in each of Marcus Freeman's two years and lost projected left tackle Charles Jagusah to injury during camp. No. 5 Alabama and No. 6 Ole Miss have unprecedented levels of pressure on staffs that have not yet reached the mountaintop.
However, Texas might be the most interesting case. The Longhorns are clearly building a powerhouse, but the heart of their playoff team was their run-stuffing defensive line and dynamic skill players. Especially after a season-ending injury to RB CJ Baxter, Texas is starting from scratch in both aspects. Will it cost them? An early-season matchup with Michigan and back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Georgia will put Steve Sarkisian's program to the test.
Buy-low candidates
Most of the preseason poll went chalk. In fact, only one team that started in the top 15 finished unranked last season -- Utah, which played without starting quarterback Cameron Rising. Leaning so hard into conventional logic leaves the door open for spoilers to make their case. Here are three teams who could crash the party.
- Iowa State: The Cyclones quietly finished 2023 as a serious Big 12 contender after overcoming a 1-2 start to the season. Now, Iowa State ranks No. 1 nationally in returning production and boasts a serious wide receiver duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel that can complement a stacked defense.
- Miami (FL): It's reasonable for voters to play it safe with the Hurricanes after two inconsistent seasons under coach Mario Cristobal, but this is the year it pays off. "The U" put together one of the most stacked transfer classes in the country with quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez. The offense alone should be one of the nation's best, and the defense has plenty of experience.
- Boise State: The entire Group of Five was left out of the preseason poll, but expect that to change in the coming weeks. While Boise State will likely get its doors blown off against Oregon in Week 2, running back Ashton Jeanty and a stacked defense makes for a serious top-25 contender. Don't be surprised to see the Broncos deep into the College Football Playoff race.
Who will win it all? Look to the top
Since the College Football Playoff began in 2014, the top of the sport has dominated the field. In fact, all 10 teams to win a national championship in the four-team playoff era started the year in the top six of the preseason AP poll. If history is a guide, that would mean that one of Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Alabama or Ole Miss will capture the elusive trophy at the end of the year.
At the same time, only one preseason No. 1 team ultimately went on to win a national championship: 2017 Alabama. Ironically, the Tide that season failed to win the SEC, but earned a trip to the field with an 11-1 record as a non-champion. That could spell trouble for Georgia, which opens the year at No. 1.
New faces rise in polls
Kansas football has gone through hell over the past 15 years, but coach Lance Leipold has the program thriving. Fittingly, the Jayhawks earned their first preseason AP Top 25 ranking since 2009 after clocking in at No. 22. KU's historic rival, No. 11 Missouri, did even better after reaching its highest preseason rank since 2008. Ole Miss also flew up the list and earned its top preseason ranking (No. 6) since 1970.
