Penn State hit a clear ceiling under coach James Franklin over the past couple of years. Always good -- really good, even -- but never good enough to step out of the gargantuan shadows cast by a pair of Big Ten giants in Ohio State and Michigan. Through the 10-win seasons and the trips to New Year's Six bowls, fans started to get a little restless.
But a lifeline arrived with the Big Ten's elimination of divisions, coupled with the 12-team College Football Playoff format. Now, despite still flying under the radar in both conference and national conversations, the No. 4 Nittany Lions have a real chance to break through Saturday when they travel to USC on the same day that No. 2 Ohio State heads to No. 3 Oregon in a game stealing all of the headlines.
Conceivably, the loser between the Buckeyes and the Ducks would fall a couple of spots in the AP Top 25. That would open the door for Penn State, provided it can win a tough road game, to climb into the top three for the first time since Week 7 of the 2017 season.
Saturday's dominoes, depending how they fall, could also open the door for Penn State to take a lead in the Big Ten race itself. An Ohio State victory would favor the Nittany Lions. Oregon still has to play No. 23 Illinois and No. 24 Michigan -- on the road -- after it gets past the Buckeyes.
That's far more difficult than what Penn State faces in its post-Week 7 slate. Looking ahead: the Nittany Lions do have a huge home game against Ohio State looming on Nov. 2, but otherwise, the remaining conference games are against opponents who are currently a combined 4-8 in Big Ten play. Washington is Penn State's only remaining opponent (other than the Buckeyes) that currently sits in the top half of the conference standings -- the same Washington team that lost to Washington State and Rutgers.
With a schedule like that, Penn State could set its eyes on a whole lot more than the Big Ten Championship Game. The Nittany Lions would be heavily favored to win at least 11 regular-season games -- something that Franklin has never done, even when Penn State won its only Big Ten title of his tenure in 2016 -- and that Nov. 2 showdown against Ohio State could be for the top spot in the nation.
All of this, of course, is assuming that Penn State can take care of business at USC. And if the 2024 season has taught us anything, it's that making assumptions is foolish.
Conference realignment means that Penn State has to travel more than 2,500 miles to play in Los Angeles. Big Ten teams crossing at least two time zones are 1-8 in conference play this year.
USC already beat then-No. 13 LSU in its season opener, and it had some bright spots in a narrow 27-24 loss on the road against Michigan -- the Trojans' first-ever Big Ten game. Those positive early season vibes have dissipated a bit, though. The Trojans are reeling after a shocking 24-17 loss to Minnesota. The defense, which showed tremendous signs of progress under new coordinator D'Anton Lynn, is banged up and getting beaten up at the point of attack as Big Ten play wears on.
That's tremendous news for a Penn State offense that looks to win at the point of attack first. The Nittany Lions rank third in the Big Ten with 217.8 yards rushing per game, behind the legs of running back duo Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Without Singleton, Penn State still broke the 100-yard rushing mark against a solid UCLA defense in its 27-11 win against the Bruins last week.
Under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, quarterback Drew Allar is also playing the best football of his career. He's extremely efficient, completing just under 71% of his passes on the year, and he makes good decisions with nine touchdowns to just one interception.
That's not to mention Penn State's defense, which ranks at or near the top of the Big Ten in most major statistical categories. The Nittany Lions have allowed just one opponent to score more than 20 points, and they've surrendered a combined 18 points in their last three games.
Penn State should get a statement win Saturday against one of college football's most prolific brands. A result like that would serve as an effective announcement that the Nittany Lions are a Big Ten threat, primed for even more.
