Bowl projections: Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech headline College Football Playoff bracket

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will not have it easy this weekend trying to decide the final at-large spots coming out of various conference championship game results. Ninth-ranked Alabama's one-sided loss to No. 3 Georgia is an intriguing -- and unexpected -- additional data point for the committee, who could critically dock the SEC's runner-up in favor of Miami for the 12-team bracket's final at-large spot.

However, the committee would have to devalue the SEC Championship Game for the first time in playoff history for the Crimson Tide to be left out entirely in favor of the No. 9 and 10 spots going to Notre Dame and the Hurricanes. No team in playoff history has reached the postseason as a three-loss, at-large nominee, nor has an at-large team lost multiple games by 10 or more points during the season. Alabama is trying to become the first on both accounts.

Now, there is precedent for a committee dropping a team that was idle for no reason. In 2014, TCU dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the final rankings after beating Iowa State 55-3 when the Big 12 did not hold a conference championship game that season. Florida State and Ohio State made the first four-team playoff that year instead as the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds after winning the ACC and Big Ten title games.

The ACC's doomsday scenario is in play following Duke's win over Virginia, which leaves the 12 seed up in the air between James Madison and the Blue Devils. Considering JMU was slotted 25th earlier this week and we don't know where the committee power-rated Duke, that's a bad situation unfolding for the ACC, which could be left out entirely. 

Indiana is college football's lone unbeaten entering the postseason after knocking off defending national champion Ohio State in the Big Ten showdown. And the Hoosiers have earned top billing by taking out the previously top-ranked Buckeyes on Saturday night in Indianapolis.

Here's a glance at how we see the final 12-team CFP bracket unfolding Sunday coming out of championship weekend:

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

First round

Don't see your team? Check out Brad Crawford's complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Indiana: What a finish from the Hoosiers. The committee will move Indiana to No. 1 in the rankings following its win over Ohio State. Indiana has there wins this season over ranked competition, but this was the best of the year against the unbeaten defending national champions.

2. Ohio State: After getting through the gauntlet of last season's playoff as a low-seed, the Buckeyes are going to be one of the teams to beat this time around after nearly getting through the regular season and the Big Ten Championship Game unscathed. Losing to Indiana hurts, but the Buckeyes have been here before and now start their trek toward another title. 

3. Georgia: The Bulldogs should move into the No. 3 slot as the SEC champions, especially after their beatdown of Alabama on the grand stage in Atlanta to avenge their only loss of the season against the Crimson Tide. It was a vintage performance defensively after Georgia limited the Crimson Tide to negative yardage on the ground with Alabama's lone score coming in the fourth quarter. No team in the country outside of Ohio State played better down the stretch against stiff competition than the Bulldogs.

4. Texas Tech: The first 12-win season in school history and a conference championship won. That's a key element in the Red Raiders potentially moving ahead of Big Ten runner-up Ohio State in Sunday's final rankings. The Red Raiders dominated the Big 12 Championship Game, torching the league's second-best team -- BYU -- for a second time this season. The committee has a decision to make for the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 spots.

5. Oregon: The Ducks saved their best execution for late in the season, running off six straight wins -- including a pair over ranked teams since the loss to Indiana -- to secure a first-round home game. Oregon's hoping to get wideouts Gary Bryant Jr. and Dakorien Moore back for the opening round and is trying to win its first playoff game under Lanning after falling to Ohio State in last year's quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl.

6. Ole Miss: Not only did losing Lane Kiffin not affect the Rebels' standing, but the committee boosted Ole Miss last week after routing Mississippi State on the road to finish 11-1. The promotion of Pete Golding to head coach coupled with Charlie Weis Jr. returning to Oxford to call plays for a postseason run strengthened the committee's opinion of Ole Miss, though we didn't hear that publicly. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels will get a first-round home game with a chance to move on to the quarterfinals as a betting favorite.

7. Texas A&M: After sliding behind Ole Miss last week, the Aggies will be at home in the first round as a one-loss SEC selection from the at-large group. Texas A&M squandered an opening-round bye opportunity in the finale at Texas, but a victory at Notre Dame this season was one of the nation's best, and they tip-toed around several SEC opponents down the stretch to finish off one of the best regular seasons in program history.

8. Oklahoma: The committee never wavered on the Sooners despite this offense struggling to produce over its final four games of the season. Oklahoma's win at Alabama stamped its playoff trip in the first of three elimination games the Sooners won in November to get to the first round. This defense is as stout as any in the field, but it looks like Oklahoma will have to win ugly to keep it going as a title threat.

9. Notre Dame: The most debated final two at-large spots in playoff history is unfolding between three bluebloods, and if the committee follows the same path they've taken the last five weeks, the Fighting Irish and Crimson Tide will be the choices at Nos. 9 and 10 over Miami. Notre Dame had a resume-booster while the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes were idle during championship weekend as well following Boise State's win in the Mountain West Championship Game. Notre Dame beat the Broncos earlier this season, 28-7.

10. Alabama: The Crimson Tide should be very thankful the committee moved them to No. 9 last week ahead of the SEC Championship Game with Georgia. It acted as a built-in buffer, essentially. Following Saturday's lackluster play against the Bulldogs, Alabama would be out in favor of Miami had Kalen DeBoer's squad still been in the No. 10 spot coming into championship weekend. Now, the committee can simply move Alabama back one spot and avoid the Notre Dame-Miami dilemma altogether. That's where we're projecting Alabama to be in the final rankings, just ahead of the Hurricanes for the final at-large spot. Also, by seeding Notre Dame and Alabama at Nos. 9 and 10, the committee avoids regular-season rematches in the opening round of the playoff.

11. Tulane: The highest-ranked Group of Five team entering conference championship weekend, the Green Wave ran away from North Texas in the first half and never looked back to win the American under outgoing coach Jon Sumrall. Tulane will be on the road in the first round, likely facing Oregon at Autzen Stadium as a double-digit underdog.

12. James Madison: Unless the committee was convinced by five-loss Duke that the Blue Devils are worth a spot in the playoff, then JMU is going to get the final auto-bid designation by being ranked higher in the final top 25. The Dukes didn't pass the eye test in the Sun Belt final against Troy, but it was their 12th win -- and that's four more than Duke this season. Plus, JMU was ranked 25th in Tuesday's penultimate rankings.

Bowl intel beyond the playoff bracket

The Notre Dame-Miami debate for the committee has significant implications for a few of the highest-tier bowl games outside of the playoff. The Fighting Irish are eligible for any of the ACC's bowl slots, which includes the Pop-Tarts Bowl and Gator Bowl. One bowl source told CBS Sports this week BYU is expected to be chosen to fill the Big 12's tie-in for the Pop-Tarts Bowl against one of the ACC's highest finishers. Based on our final playoff projection, that's either Miami, Duke or Virginia.

Miami played in the Pop-Tarts Bowl last bowl season, so the Hurricanes would also be a welcomed option for the Gator Bowl against a 10-win Vanderbilt team if not selected for the playoff. Tennessee is also being considered for the game in Jacksonville on Dec. 27, a source told CBS Sports on Saturday. If the Vols play in the Gator, Vanderbilt would likely play in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa against Iowa, per team sources.

One of the postseason's top games outside of the playoff, the Citrus Bowl gets first selection of SEC and Big Ten teams once the 12-team bracket is set and the highest-ranked remaining teams in each league are often selected. We expect Texas (9-3) be the choice in Orlando from the SEC side — unless Alabama is left out of the playoff bracket — and Michigan as the Big Ten's representative. The Wolverines (9-3) last played in the Citrus to end the 2019 season while the Longhorns would be a first-time participant.

After the Citrus Bowl selects a team, there will be a pool of six bowls and the conference -- in consultation with the institutions and the bowls -- will make the assignments for this group from all eligible remaining SEC teams. With the SEC being unable to fill its bowl allotment this season after six teams finished with five or fewer wins, one of the league's tie-ins this month will not get a conference team. We're expecting that to be the Mayo Bowl in Charlotte.

Kansas State (6-6) declined a bowl opportunity and sources tell CBS Sports that Rice (5-7) is being considered for that final spot based on its high Academic Progress Rate (APR) ranking. Auburn (5-7) would be next in line, but would likely decline to focus on recruiting and its new staff under Alex Golesh. The Owls have made it clear they would be interested in playing another game this season.

Also in the Big Ten, there was multiple game wanting Penn State (6-6), but a source confirmed Saturday the Nittany Lions are heading to Yankee Stadum to play an ACC opponent in the Pinstripe Bowl. In other yet-to-be-announced Big Ten designations, we expect Nebraska to play in the Las Vegas Bowl, Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl and Illinois in the Music City Bowl, among others.