Destiny awaits No. 1 Oregon on several fronts this weekend. In his third season, coach Dan Lanning has his team one game away from regular-season perfection. Throughout a season filled with parity, the Ducks have been a model of consistency from start to finish.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel continues to chase the NCAA career passing record. He has been part of a balanced team that leads the Big Ten in passing, sports a 1,000-yard rusher (Jordan James) and is second in the Big Ten in allowing third-down conversions. Only seven other teams have allowed fewer touchdowns than the Ducks (22).
As Oregon prepares for Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game with Penn State, Gabriel is the lefty fire-starter of it all. His journey has spanned three programs, two land masses and a cultural divide. Culturally, he is the latest great quarterback and Heisman Trophy contender to come out of Hawaii, following in the footsteps of Marcus Mariota and Tua Tagovailoa.
The transfer portal was implemented in the middle of Gabriel's senior season at Mililani (Hawaii) High School in 2018. COVID-19 hit in 2020. Gabriel was then among thousands of athletes who got an extra year of eligibility. NIL debuted in the summer of 2022, while the one-time transfer rule was voted in two months later.
Collectives have been around for 2 ½ years.
Gabriel has been both a witness to and participant of this new age, transferring from UCF to Oklahoma following that 2021 season and again to Oregon following last season. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables would later confirm Gabriel's draft evaluation had something to do with the quarterback leaving the Sooners.
Oregon was a prime destination because it was closer to home. Offensive coordinator Will Stein had just gotten done developing Bo Nix -- who had played under five offensive coordinators in his career -- into a top draft pick under Lanning. NIL riches in the seven-figure range didn't hurt, either.
Stein is Gabriel's seventh offensive coordinator.
"I knew exactly what I wanted," Gabriel said of his transfer to Oregon. "You know what's real. You know what's fake. I could see right through it and knew what I was getting. I said 'yes' as fast as I could."
Gabriel, 23, was asked what words he'd have said to his 18-year-old self flying the 4,700 miles from Hawaii to Orlando, Florida, to begin his career at UCF in 2019.
"You want to spend four years at a place," Gabriel said. "You want to be able to bring your kids back and have those memories. That's not the football world I'm living in. Maybe 10 years ago that was the case."
Don't be twisted. Gabriel enjoyed his time at UCF, where he played for three years, leading the country in passing touchdowns in 2020. But three games into the 2021 season, he was knocked out for the season with a broken collarbone.
This was in the middle of the world changing around him.
He has become a commodity as much as a player; college compensation exists in a nether region that is not fully professional but definitely not amateur anymore.
"You still have to do it," Gabriel said of the NIL era. "Think about it. These NFL guys are getting paid how much? You still have to go produce. That's why I've said nothing has changed.
"[Compensation is] good for the players. Think about all the players, families who can now support them. Think about the giveback to communities. In life there is going to be bad, but you've got to support the good. I've heard so many positives."
Case Keenum's career passing record is on a back shelf of Gabriel's priorities. One guy never changed teams. Another continues to change the world.
College football has never been more transactional. For now, Gabriel wouldn't be surprised if collective bargaining breaks through before the career passing mark is broken.
"You can't take college football out of college football," he said. "You can pay them, but you can't take the pride of the university, the pride for the teammates.
"They're still 18 to 23-year-olds trying to figure it out. There is still that within it. There is still the college vibe in it.
"It's just gotten more complex."
Championship Week game predictions
Conference USA, Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State (Friday): This may be a compelling game. I don't know. The reason to watch, though, is that it may be Rich Rodriguez's last game with the Gamecocks before departing for his old employer, West Virginia. Rich Rod, 61, can still coach. He is 26-10 in three seasons at Jax State. Strange, but only the service academies run it more than the Gamecocks (67.7%). Rodriguez practically invented the modern zone read spread. Jacksonville State 24, Marshall 21
Mountain West, No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 20 UNLV (Friday): The entirety of Boise State's 91-year existence as a program comes down to this game. The Broncos have won championship games before, but they've never played in one where a win would allow them to play for a national championship. Same for UNLV. The Rebels this season held Ashton Jeanty to his fewest yards per carry (3.88) since Game 3 of 2023. On destiny alone, Boise wins the biggest game in program history. Boise State 28, UNLV 27.
AAC, No. 24 Army vs. Tulane (Friday): This one is sneaky good. Army quarterback Bryson Dailey is worth the price of your TV package. The Knights are playing for their first conference title in program history, and Michie Stadium is a fitting venue for such history. The way he adjusted the offense this season, Jeff Monken has proven himself worthy of a Power Four job. Army 22, Tulane 17.
Big 12, No. 16 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State: Arizona State was picked last in the 16-team Big 12 in the preseason. Iowa State was picked sixth. But here they are in a loser-leave-town match for a playoff spot. The Big 12 fulfilled its promise as college football's most entertaining conference. Who knew it would come down to Cam Skattebo vs Jayden Higgins. Of course you don't know who they are. You'll thank me later when ASU's 1,400 rusher dukes it out with the Big 12's No. 4 receiver (Higgins). ASU has won five in a row. Iowa State is on a three-game run. If Clemson beats SMU later in the evening, the winner here might get a first-round bye. ASU's loss of top receiver Jordyn Tyson (shoulder) tilts this one the Clones' way. Iowa State 29, Arizona State 23.
MAC, Ohio vs. Miami (OH): Who isn't all in on Ohio? The Bobcats haven't won a conference title in 56 years. The revenge factor applies here. Miami (OH) won the first meeting 30-20. Ohio's Parker Navarro is fifth nationally in quarterback rushing (868 yards). Teams separated by 160 miles meet for the 101st time in … Detroit. Ohio 21, Miami (Ohio) 19.
SEC, No. 2 Texas vs. No. 6 Georgia: There was a bit of a national stir caused on Nov. 29 when ESPN declared Georgia had "clinched" a playoff berth in the midst of a way-too-close, eight-overtime win over Georgia Tech. What if the Dawgs get blown out by Texas? That would be their third loss of the season, making it four SEC teams in the discussion with three losses. At least two of them (Alabama, Georgia) would be given preferential treatment if the Dawgs survive a loss. Don't ask me. Ask the ACC commissioner and Miami AD. Texas has been waiting for revenge since an Oct. 19 home loss to the Dawgs. The 'Horns would like some big throws of another kind on Saturday. Texas 33, Georgia 25
Sun Belt, Louisiana vs. Marshall: Michael Desormeaux has done great things in his fourth season with the Ragin' Cajuns. At 10-2, Louisiana can win its first Sun Belt title since the Billy Napier days. Marshall has the third-best coverage grade in FBS (per Pro Football Focus). Louisiana scores 35 a game. Something has to give. Louisiana 34, Marshall 17
Big Ten, No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State: This is the one true championship game that is definitively for seeding. No matter what happens here, Oregon and Penn State are in the playoff. The Lions probably need that cushion because they don't do well in big games. You shouldn't have to be reminded James Franklin is 1-13 against top-five teams. A Ducks win gives Oregon its best start (13-0) in program history. In his first year in the Big Ten, everyone in the Big Ten is chasing Dan Lanning and his juggernaut. This is a mulligan game for Penn State after blowing that home showdown to Ohio State. Somewhere, Ryan Day is asking (again), "What happened?" Oregon 29, Penn State 17
ACC, No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson: Clemson backed in despite not taking care of business against South Carolina and after Miami couldn't take care of business at Syracuse. An underrated SMU should roll, but if it doesn't, another CFP flap is on the horizon. How far will the No. 8 Mustangs fall if they lose? And if they fall behind three-loss Alabama that doesn't play and miss the playoff, there will be hell to pay -- at least on social media. SMU 27, Clemson 21
