It's the second week of the college football season but Week 1 on the calendar. Confused? Don't be. While we can discuss the merits of labeling something "Week 0," there's no argument elsewhere. Football is here and the overreactions have only begun.
Suddenly, Florida State's best chance at achieving anything meaningful this season is in the courts. Social media vultures jumped on that Georgia Tech result for pure sport, didn't they? Never mind the Seminoles lost at the gun to a plucky Yellow Jackets team in another country with 11 games left (at least).
Now, other victims await our judgment following as the first full week of games takes center stage.
This is an early warning to reel in your knee-jerk reactions. The newly expanded College Football Playoff not only means more access but also more hope. You may have missed two of these gems buried in the unwritten CFP rules because, well, they're unwritten.
- For the first time in the BCS era (since 1998), winning your conference isn't the clearest path to a championship.
- You can lose early, actually lose big, and still be in the running ... as long as you win your conference.
Yes, both those things can be true at the same time.
Don't forget, the top five ranked conference champions get automatic spots in the CFP field. Yes, there are nine conferences, so this isn't about complete redemption for this weekend's losers. But such is the impact of the breadth and width of the 12-team playoff.
This week's games are great because they're not definitive. That's good news for those on the unfortunate end of Clemson vs. Georgia, Penn State vs. West Virginia, Miami vs. Florida, Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M and LSU vs. USC.
Losing doesn't kill your season. You can rebound.
In fact, third place in the Big Ten and SEC might be a safe haven in the expanded playoff era. Those teams will probably be in the CFP and don't have to risk their seasons in a conference championship game.
Last year, those teams would have been Missouri, a No. 9 seed at 10-2, and Penn State, a No. 10 seed at 10-2. Penn State lost to Ohio State and Michigan in the regular season. Missouri lost to LSU and Georgia.
Before we go any further, yes, I know Alabama got to the BCS (2011) and CFP (2016) without even winning its division. I know LSU lost twice, gave up 50 points at home and still somehow won a national championship (2007). While those results were outliers, they are also further evidence that the SEC -- and now Big Ten -- will get every consideration from the selection committee in the room.
Meanwhile, FSU continues to be the last thing you think of before this weekend's kickoffs and the first thing you think of next week. The 'Noles play Monday night against Boston College with their season still alive ... for now.
Week 1 storylines
Dabo Swinney and his philosophy are on trial as Clemson battles Georgia on Saturday in Atlanta. No (or few) transfers? No bueno, Dabo. We're about to find out just how far the Tigers have slipped from national contention, if at all. Their record since that last title (2020) is 54-13, an achievement almost any program would accept. Difference here is that Clemson continues to compete against its own championship legacy. Last year's four losses were the most since Swinney's second season (2010). Cabe Klubnik must be a difference-maker. The Bulldogs have won 39 straight regular-season games. A win Saturday would make them the first FBS team to win at least 40 straight in the regular season since Oklahoma in 1957. Georgia is favored by 13.5 points, which is the largest spread Clemson has faced in a dozen years and second-largest in the Dabo era.
Florida vs. Miami is akin to a loser-leave-town match in pro wrestling. Billy Napier absolutely cannot afford a loss considering a schedule that is tougher than stale jerky. This is as close to a must-win as there is in the opener. There simply aren't many Ws on the schedule. If Napier goes 7-5, he might deserve a contract extension.
But Mario Cristobal? He's got 80 million reasons to be safe. No, he won't be in trouble starting Year 3, but the program needs to show progress. Cristobal's 12-13 record is the worst by a Miami coach in his first two seasons since Lou Saban (9-13) in 1977-78. Cristobal might have the best quarterback on the field; Cam Ward has thrown for the most yards in the FBS ranks since 2020 (more than 13,000). In a sold-out Swamp desperate to break a five-game losing streak, Florida will have the better team for at least one glorious afternoon this season.
Penn State gave new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki quite the bag in stealing him from Kansas. The innovative play-caller who helped put the Jayhawks on the map might be the difference in the Nittany Lions' season going into the opener at West Virginia. One thing bothers me, though. Kotelnicki is noted for his ability to squeeze the best out of dual-threat quarterbacks. Penn State's Drew Allar is a statue. This one still screams Nittany Lions. Allar had the second-best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the country last season. Penn State has won 21 straight against unranked opponents (fourth-longest active streak). But the Mountaineers will try to elongate this one with a punishing running game and Garrett Greene, one of the best running quarterbacks in the country. West Virginia coach Neal Brown surprised everyone last season pulling out nine wins with his job on the line. Advice: Put 'em away early, Nits.
I'm having a hard time getting a feel for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M. This opener might be as tough as it gets for the Fighting Irish this season. The schedule is playoff friendly. Anything less than 10 wins and this season should be considered unfulfilled. First year Texas A&M coach Mike Elko, a former Notre Dame defensive coordinator, knows a lot about Irish quarterback Riley Leonard. They were together last season at Duke. This is the second time since 2000 a head coach/QB who have played together the previous season faced each other on different teams the next season. Still waiting for the best recruiting class of all time to kick in at A&M. Following the Jimbo Fisher debacle, the Aggies needed the normalcy that Elko provides. Next up is winning an SEC title at a school with more money and facilities than NASA.
Is it logical to assume that Michigan coach Sherrone Moore wants to take his NCAA case to a full hearing? Heading into the season opener against Fresno State, Moore has been accused by the NCAA of deleting 52 texts from his phone (since recovered) in the Connor Stalions sign-stealing case. A negotiated resolution, believed to be on the table, would wrap up this situation sooner rather than later. Moore agreed to such a resolution last year by taking a one-game suspension in the season opener. How bad would it look if Moore accepted a suspension via that resolution for his first game as head coach? Stay tuned because Moore's future status is one of the few ways the NCAA can really harm the program going forward in the Connor Stalions case. Or maybe not. Michigan won a national championship last year with its head coach missing half the regular season.
The pressure is on Lincoln Riley as USC opens with LSU. The Trojans absolutely have to start playing some defense to get to the next level. New defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn will get a test from what's left of LSU's explosive offense from last year (quite a bit, actually). Rumors recently swirled that Riley has been trying to get out of this game for two years. He also hinted at Big Ten Media Days that the Notre Dame rivalry may end. Beat a quality nonconference opponent while prepping for the Big Ten, Lincoln. That's how you play "catch up." These programs have produced the last two Heisman winners.
Watch the hell out Thursday night, Coach Prime. North Dakota State will smack Deion Sanders' Colorado team in the mouth. They are fearless. We know this because NDSU is 6-1 against the current Power Four since 2010. All of those games have been on the road. Prediction: To put it in binomial nomenclature, the Bison bison will win. (Either way).
UCLA at Hawaii: By the end of the season only Apollo 13 will have traveled more air miles than the Bruins.
Boston College at Florida State (Monday): You thought Haynes King was dangerous? Boston College QB Tom Castellanos ran for 1,100 yards last season. Only Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels ran for more among quarterbacks.
FAU at Michigan State: It wouldn't be a proper kickoff to the season without a gambling controversy. The Spartans begin the season with a win total of 4.5.
Quick kicks
- Steve Sarkisian continues to tease an Arch Manning appearance. Asked this week whether Manning will play in the first half against Colorado State, the Longhorns coach said, "We'll find out." Let me translate: Yes, we will see Manning at some point in the game. Sark has to have a plan to keep Manning (and the family) happy as the sophomore QB backs up Quinn Ewers for the second straight year.
- The National Football Foundation reports a record 3,534 players in all three divisions will begin the season having earned their degrees. The COVID-19 year certainly helps. Northwestern leads everyone (surprise!) with 34 undergraduate degrees.
- Considering the point spread, Clemson is seeking its biggest upset win since 2004 (at Miami)
- Ohio State (hosting Akron on Saturday at 3:30 pm ET on CBS) has won 24 straight season openers. That's the third-longest streak since 1978.
- Michigan is the first program to follow a national championship with a new coach since Frank Solich replaced Tom Osborne at Nebraska in 1998.
- These six teams have a chance to win the national championship: Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss. We know this because in the 10-year history of the CFP, teams ranked in the top six in the preseason won it all.
