Heading into the final month of the regular season, five coaching jobs are open: East Carolina, Rice, and Southern Miss (vacant since October), plus Utah State and Fresno State (open since preseason). We learned Thursday morning that Florida would not open, with athletics director Scott Stricklin giving coach Billy Napier a glorified vote of confidence.
While more openings are expected, sources say the 2024-25 cycle could be the slowest coaching carousel in a decade -- but also one of the most unpredictable.
With bowl eligibility still in play for many, the new 12-team College Football Playoff, along with transfer portal dynamics, has leveled the field. Coaches once on the hot seat in August might hold onto their jobs by December.
Timing only adds to the unpredictability. The playoff kicks off Dec. 20, just 11 days after the transfer portal opens. If a major program makes a change, does that take a playoff-bound coach out of the running? And how might top-tier coordinators factor in, eyeing head coaching roles in the Group of Five or Power Four?
"This last month is the most volatile you've seen because of the portal and the playoff," an agent said this week.
To get a gauge on where things sit at the Power Four level, we surveyed 12 college football writers across CBS Sports and 247Sports and asked them to score each coach on a 1-5 scale: Five indicating they believe the coach is as good as gone, with one indicating they do not think the coach should even be on the hot seat.
The results were averaged and spit out into a hot seat poll, which is listed below in descending order.
2024 Hot Seat Rankings tiers
Will he retire on a high note?
Mack Brown, North Carolina
Record: 43-31 in six seasons (second stint), 5-4 in 2024
Brown rated highly in the poll, with most analysts expecting that somebody else coaches the Tar Heels next year. How that happens is what makes Brown the most nuanced coach to discuss here. As the dean of FBS coaches -- in terms of age -- Mack Brown will be allowed to go out his way. At 73, has earned that. Brown deserves a ceremonial exit on his own terms. First FBS coach to win at least 100 games at two schools. A national championship. Hall of Famer. Twenty-six bowls, eight of them of the major variety. Oh, and Brown and the Heels have rebounded nicely from an unsightly four-game losing streak.
One more win and a Brown-coached team would be bowl eligible for the 30th time. Not bad. Brown has basically maxed out at two major programs. (Texas, North Carolina). He should be given the courtesy of deciding when he's done especially when the Tar Heels still have a chance to win eight. Maybe that happens this offseason, maybe it doesn't. I think it should be up to Brown. - Dennis Dodd
Swing group: Could be safe or fired depending on November
Ryan Walters, Purdue
Record: 5-15 in two seasons, 1-7 in 2024
Walters has landed on the hot seat in only his second season because of regression within the program. The Boilermakers are winless in the Big Ten, and at 1-7 this season, his career record is an abysmal 5-15. A 1-11 record this season just doesn't cut it, even at Purdue, which many in the industry label as one of the worst jobs on the power level.
The shadow of Jeff Brohm's tremendous success at the program before Walters' arrival hurts his cause. Walters has already tried to buy some time by firing OC Graham Harrell and taking over play-calling duties on defense but with slight improvement. More recently, Walters had an opportunity to grab a lead against Northwestern in overtime but opted to keep the offense on the field instead of trying a 37-yard field goal on fourth-and-5. The attempt failed and Northwestern won the game. "
"I went to the locker room and told them, 'You know, I know it doesn't seem like it at times. I know it's hard to hear right now, but we are close,'" Walters said after the loss. "You know, there's two of the last three games have went to overtime, and so you're right there." — Brandon Marcello
Neal Brown, West Virginia
Record: 35-33 in six seasons, 4-4 in 2024
Brown's tenure is right around the same place it was at the end of last season. It's perilous, with an open question as to whether the WVU administration wants to part ways with their head man despite the fact that the fanbase seems like it very much does.
Brown was given an extension in March, so there certainly is some institutional backing there, but just how much? Perhaps we'll find out after four games in which the mountaineers are a coin flip proposition in each game. — Richard Johnson
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Record: 28-29 in five seasons, 5-4 in 2024
The Bears are winners of three straight games and Dave Aranda's seat has cooled considerably compared to the start of the year. Baylor's found something with quarterback Sawyer Robertson and can claim big in-state wins in recent weeks over Texas Tech and TCU. Aranda remains well liked by the Bears' administration and has a sizable buyout with his deal running through 2029. As of now, the industry consensus is he's trending toward a 2025 return. — Matt Zenitz
Gus Malzahn, UCF
Record: 28-21 in four seasons, 4-5 in 2024
Malzahn has done good things in his time at UCF. He elevated the recruiting profile of the Knights (third in the Big 12 in 2024) as they transitioned into the Big 12 following back-to-back, nine-win seasons in the AAC. The results on the field, however, have led to some questions. Despite being the only Big 12 newcomer to finish with a .500 record in the regular season in 2023, the Knights have regressed with quarterback problems, leading to the benching of star transfer K.J. Jefferson earlier in the year. Malzahn demoted himself as play-caller on offense and fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof following a five-game losing streak. They then blew out Arizona. Malzahn has a history of giving up play-calling duties only to reclaim them (sometimes within the same season). Malzahn will likely get a fifth season to right the ship if he desires to remain in Orlando. — Brandon Marcello
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Record: 28-29 in five seasons, 5-4 in 2024
Sam Pittman's seat has cooled considerably after entering the season on the front burner of the SEC stove. The win against then-No. 4 Tennessee led to a field storming, and athletics director Hunter Yurachek loudly proclaimed his support for Pittman's job performance in an interview with CBS Sports. Then came back-to-back blowout losses to LSU and Ole Miss at home, leading to fading support among the fan base once again.
Pittman, who has been dealing with a painful hip ailment throughout the season, is likely safe with a winning record, and at 5-4 that remains a distinct possibility with Texas, Louisiana Tech and Missouri remaining on the schedule. Wins against Tech and Missouri would push him to seven wins and give the Razorbacks momentum with a returning quarterback (Taylen Green) and several young pieces to build around as they attack the portal in December. The NIL situation at Arkansas, we're told, is also improving, which helps Pittman's cause. The Hogs are trending the right direction with Pittman as CEO and Bobby Petrino and Travis Williams as play-callers. — Brandon Marcello
Will he retire on a bad note?
Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Record: 166-83 in 20 seasons, 4-4 in 2024
Kyle Whittingham is the winningest coach in Utah football history and is in no danger of being fired. But there has been increased speculation about whether Whittingham, in his 20th season as the Utes' head coach, could be nearing a retirement decision. He has said in the past he doesn't want to coach past 65 years old and yet will reach that age this month. He already has his successor picked out with defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley deemed the head-coach-in-waiting back in July.
In what was supposed to be a season where Utah immediately competed for the Big 12 title, Utah has disappointed to a 4-4 record that has included weekly questions over quarterback Cam Rising's status and offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig's resignation following a home loss to TCU. It'll be up to Whittingham on whether he wants to walk away on a sour note after a storied coaching career that saw multiple Rose Bowl appearances and a 2008 season where the Utes finished No. 2 in the country. — John Talty
Not now, but they may lead 2025 hot seat polls
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Record: 9-13 in two seasons, 3-6 in 2024
It's hard to imagine the Hugh Freeze era in Auburn going worse than it has through nearly two seasons. Through 22 games at Auburn, Freeze is 9-13 overall, 4-10 in the SEC, 1-6 in SEC home games and 0-2 against quarterback Diego Pavia. Freeze has a worse record than his predecessor, Bryan Harsin, who was fired after only 21 games as Auburn's head coach. Statistically Auburn actually isn't that bad but has a remarkable ability to blow games it shouldn't leading to a pitiful 3-6 record that will result in missing a bowl game.
Freeze's recruiting prowess -- the Tigers currently have the nation's fifth-best recruiting class -- should buy him another year, barring unforeseen developments, but he's going to enter next season on a scorching seat. He'll need to show major improvements in Year 3 and must figure out the quarterback position after unwisely not bringing in a transfer QB to challenge Payton Thorne this past year. — John Talty
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Record: 32-32 in six seasons (not including 2015 interim year), 4-4 in 2024
In the first year of the expanded 18-team Big Ten, Mike Locksley and his Maryland Terrapins have taken a step back after three consecutive seasons of at least eight wins. Locksley has a thrilling home win over USC this season, but the Terps are 4-4 and there don't look like many, if any, wins left on the remaining schedule of No. 1 Oregon, No. 6 Penn State, Iowa and Rutgers.
Still, Locksley, who makes $5.8 million annually, isn't in serious danger of losing his job this season. Maryland has limited NIL resources compared to its well-heeled Big Ten rivals like Ohio State and Penn State, but Locksley has done a nice job on the recruiting trail this cycle, currently holding the nation's No. 24 class that includes top-50 recruit Malik Washington. The nation's No. 5 quarterback prospect, Washington could be the future of the program if Locksley can officially sign him next month. — John Talty
Brent Venables, Oklahoma
Record: 21-14 in three seasons, 5-4 in 2024
With each of its final three regular season games being against ranked opponents, it's possible that Oklahoma finishes with a losing record for the second time in three years under Venables. That's not acceptable by OU standards. In fact, Venables' first season as head coach was the Sooners' first losing season since John Blake's final year as Oklahoma's head coach in 1998.
While Venables' job appears safe through this year, there's growing pressure in Norman and it will be important for Venables to make a strong hire at offensive coordinator after firing Seth Littrell. — Matt Zenitz
More: Oklahoma Sooners offensive coordinator hot board, version 3.0
Lincoln Riley, USC
Record: 23-13 in three seasons, 4-5 in 2024
The honeymoon era of Lincoln Riley and USC football is over. Riley, who went 11-3 and helped Caleb Williams win a Heisman Trophy in his debut, is just 12-10 in the time since and sits at 4-5 this season. For context, Clay Helton went 25-11 at USC in his first 36 games as the program's permanent head coach.
Sure, USC is 1-5 this season in games decided by a possession or less and had a few of those swung differently, the vibes would be different. But this problem for Riley throughout his tenure; he has an 8-9 overall record in one-score games. Realistically, Riley is not getting fired this year. He's the fourth-highest paid head coach in college football at over $10 million a year and is just three seasons into a 10-year deal. It'd take Jimbo Fisher-level money to buy him out. USC should be an elite program. There's plenty of NIL money and a fertile recruiting ground. But, at least in this moment, it appears Riley's lost his fastball.
It'll be interesting to see what Riley chooses to do with the rest of his career. He's just 41 years old and NFL rumors have followed him in the past. But USC has a top 10 class for 2025 and should continue to get better on defense under D'Anton Lynn. Don't be surprised if the Trojans mange to bounce back next season. — Chris Hummer
This is a mulligan year
Sherrone Moore, Michigan
Record: 5-4 in one season (not including 4-0 as interim in 2023)
This is essentially a mulligan year for Moore. At Michigan, you shouldn't have those, but this is a unique situation. Not only did Jim Harbaugh leave, but he left on Jan. 24, four days after the national championship game and well after every single top QB in the 247Sports transfer portal rankings had enrolled at their new schools.
It was a bad hand dealt by circumstance, but there was cause for optimism about an offensive identity around returning quarterback Alex Orji, which eventually began to wane during training camp as Orji did not win the starting QB job decisively. Now Michigan looks to the offseason to re-tool and get back to being one of the Big Ten's elite teams. Flipping No. 1 overall recruit Bryce Underwood from LSU would be an era-defining move. — Richard Johnson
He's safe, but this staff overhaul better be good
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Record: 32-25 in five seasons, 1-8 in 2024
Simply put, it's too expensive to fire Mike Norvell now. At north of $60 million, it's not a Jimbo Fisher-level buyout exactly but it's pretty close. The expectation around the industry is that FSU will make coaching changes (plural) on its assistant coaching staff, and that we'll see where the chips fall next season.
FSU's biggest problem, however, is its lack of development of high school recruits brought into the program. The 'Noles nailed their portal evals for the last few years, but with many of their best hits in the NFL, they were unable to backfill with homegrown talent when the time came to do so this year. The results have been disastrous. — Richard Johnson