alabama-oklahoma.jpg
Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff kicks off on Dec. 19, but not without some controversy. Alabama and Miami are in and Notre Dame is out. I'll be the first to admit that I'm shocked the Irish didn't make the field, but that no longer matters. We have the matchups for Round 1, so it's time to dive in and break them down.

Here is a look at all four of the first-round matchups, along with two futures bets you should consider before the games kick off. 

Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5, 40.5) at Oklahoma Sooners, Friday, Dec. 19

We can debate whether or not Alabama should be in the CFP, but that is now irrelevant. The Tide made it, so it's about analyzing the matchup versus Oklahoma. I really like this spot for Alabama, and it was my first official play on SportsLine. 

Say what you want about the Tide, but they played a brutal schedule. Alabama had that span in October where it defeated four top-15 teams in consecutive weeks, something that has never been done. In my opinion, they haven't looked the same since. The Tide were beat up and running on fumes towards the end of the season. I think we see a different Alabama team in the playoff. 

If you go back to the first matchup between these two teams, Oklahoma was held to 212 total yards and just 4.2 yards per play. The Tide turned the ball over three times and still lost by only two points. 

This will be a defensive slugfest, as the 40.5 total suggests. It comes down to which offense makes more plays in the second half. I trust Kalen DeBoer with some time off to figure out ways to attack Oklahoma's aggressive defense. Give me the Crimson Tide to advance.

Pick: Alabama ML

Miami Hurricanes at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 51.5), Saturday, Dec. 20

Can someone tell me why this game is at noon ET on Saturday? Shouldn't the best game be at night so we have something to look forward to while we are watching two mismatches? It makes no sense to me. 

Miami caught a bit of a break with this being an early kickoff. However, not all home-field advantages are created equal, and Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play in the country. If this game were played on a neutral field, I would give Miami a much greater chance of pulling off the upset. 

The Aggies are flying under the radar a little bit. Let's not forget, Texas A&M was unbeaten heading into the season finale against Texas and quarterback Marcel Reed got hurt in that game. He returned but was clearly limited. Reed is expected to be 100% for the playoff. 

My concern for Miami is Texas A&M will be by far the best defense the Canes have faced this year. I also wonder how good Miami is this season. They lost two games in the weak ACC, which is ridiculous. They are hanging their hat on the Notre Dame win but that was back in August with freshman quarterback CJ Carr making his first career start. 

I think the Canes are going to struggle to score in this matchup. A&M sends a lot of different blitzes on third down and I expect that to bother Carson Beck, leading to a couple of turnovers. I like the Aggies to advance, although my favorite play is the Miami team total under 23.5. 

Play: Miami team total Under 23.5

Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels (-17.5, 56.5), Saturday, Dec. 20

This is the toughest game to call, in my opinion, and I don't have a strong play. The two teams met earlier this season and Ole Miss rolled at home by a final score of 45-10. Of course, a lot has happened down on the Grove since September. 

You may have heard that head coach Lane Kiffin left for LSU, making the Rebels a bit of a wild card in the CFP. Still, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense should be too much for Tulane to contain. 

The one glimmer of hope for Tulane is stopping the run. The Green Wave rank 29th in rush defense and have allowed an average of just 46 yards in their last three games. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has had trouble stopping the run at times this season, allowing 171 yards a game. Granted, we need to take the level of competition into account, although that is the one area where Tulane has an edge in this matchup. 

Out of the four first-round games, this is the one I can see going multiple different ways. I lean Under 56.5, but it's by far my least confident pick of the four plays. 

Lean: Under 56.5

James Madison Dukes at Oregon Ducks (-21.5, 50.5), Saturday, Dec. 20

The last game of the first round is also the one with the largest spread. Oregon is laying over three touchdowns at home to James Madison. I tried to find a way to back the underdog here. I just can't do it, though. 

This isn't basketball where we see big first-round upsets that makes March Madness so special. The big difference in football is in the trenches. James Madison has an athletic defense but the Ducks have a big edge on both lines. Even if the Dukes hang around for a while, I think Oregon wears them down and pulls away in the second half. 

There are a couple different ways to attack Oregon in this game. Instead of laying the 21.5 and worrying about a potential back door cover, I like the Oregon team total Over 35.5. Even if the Ducks take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, I can see a scenario where running backs Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. break off some big runs to get over this number. 

I'm rooting for James Madison to keep it close so we get a good game. However, the more likely outcome is we are breaking down the Oregon-Texas Tech quarterfinal matchup in the third quarter. 

Lean: Oregon team total Over 35.5

CFP future bets

Texas Tech Red Raiders to make CFP semifinals (-120)

The likely quarterfinal matchup is Texas Tech vs. Oregon. I like the Red Raiders in that matchup, and FanDuel has them opening as a 1.5-point favorite. I can see money coming in on Texas Tech, so I prefer betting them now at -120 to make the semifinals.  

The reason I am so high on the Red Raiders is because they dominate in the trenches, and that ultimately wins close games most of the time. Texas Tech ranks second in havoc (tackles for loss, passes defended) and defensive success rate. The Red Raiders' defensive line is constantly in the backfield either pressuring the quarterback or stuffing running backs. 

I don't think this is a great Oregon team. They faced one defense this season in Indiana with a similar profile to Texas Tech, and the Hoosiers held Oregon to 20 points and just 267 total yards in a game where Dante Moore finished with 186 yards and two interceptions. If the Ducks aren't able to run the ball against that stout Texas Tech defensive front, can Moore win a big game with his arm? I'm not so sure. 

I considered taking the Red Raiders to make the title game at +310, but a potential semifinal matchup versus Indiana would be a bloodbath and a dead-even matchup, in my opinion. Instead, I'll take Texas Tech to win one game over Oregon at -120. 

Georgia Bulldogs to win National Championship +600

One thing I always look for in college basketball is teams peaking late in the season. It really doesn't matter what a CBB team does in November heading into March Madness. 

It's not the exact same with football, but with the expanded playoff field, there is some merit betting a team that is playing its best in December. Georgia is a team peaking at the right time. 

I was concerned back in September when Tennessee was running up and down the field against Georgia's defense. Since allowing 35 points to Ole Miss on Oct. 18, the Bulldogs are giving up an average of only 9.8 points and just dominated Alabama in the SEC Championship. 

Georgia's path to a title certainly isn't an easy one. The Bulldogs get the winner of Miami-Texas A&M and then have to face Ohio State. If they do meet the Buckeyes, I favor Georgia. Ohio State has faced two real defenses this year in Texas and Indiana. They scored 14 and 10 points. With the way Georgia's defense is playing right now, I give them an edge. 

The bottom line is Georgia is +600 and Ohio State is +195. That makes no sense. What would the spread be in that game, Ohio State -1.5? There is too much value on the Bulldogs entering the playoff for me to pass up.