Staying within the scope of the College Football Playoff conversation near midseason is essential for teams currently on the outside looking in this week. The favorites better take care of business, too.
The SEC will be a multi-bid league and one of those hopefuls -- unbeaten Missouri -- faces a stiff test at Texas A&M to highlight the Week 6 docket. The Tigers are 2-6 against ranked competition on the road under Eli Drinkwitz and would switch spots with the Aggies in the league's pecking order if Texas A&M is able to push its winning streak to five.
Mass AP Top 25 changes coming out of a wild weekend further complicated the Big 12 championship picture, while the Group of Five's auto-bid nominee is coming into focus. And if there's a top-10 elite with potential warts, it's Michigan. The Wolverines rank 130th overall in passing offense -- last among Power Four teams -- and travel to Washington, who was a hard-luck loser at Rutgers last week despite out-gaining the unbeaten Scarlet Knights by 222 yards.
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Missouri (at Texas A&M): This defense is quite good. Any questions about losing ex-defensive coordinator Blake Baker to LSU along with personnel losses and how the Tigers would replace those guys have been answered. However, whether this team has the knockout punch power necessary offensively to reach the playoff remains up in the air. There's a lot to be desired following a six-point win over Boston College and surviving Vanderbilt in overtime. Only the Commodores and Oklahoma have had fewer explosive plays in the SEC. Not to dive too far into the analytics side, but Missouri is one of three ranked teams slotted outside of the top 40 in team scoring efficiency through Week 5. This week's test in College Station will be revealing.
UNLV (vs. Syracuse): Nationally ranked for the first time in program history, the Rebels are one of college football's top stories this season. Clubbing Fresno State in the Mountain West opener with new starting quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams provided a locker room lift. UNLV has two wins over Big 12 competition and an opportunity to take out likely bowl-bound Syracuse this week. Everyone's pointing to the Oct. 25 showdown with Boise State as the Group of Five matchup to watch.
Notre Dame (bye): It's time to start discussing playoff scenarios for the Fighting Irish after their third consecutive win since the upset loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame managed a big-time victory over nationally ranked Louisville and has three quality-win chances left on the slate against Navy, Army and USC. If this team gets to 11-1, they're undoubtedly getting an at-large bid.
Ole Miss (at South Carolina): Will the real Ole Miss please stand up? Maybe last week's loss to Kentucky was the authentic Rebels, a team not worthy of lofty preseason hype and rise in the polls after a 4-0 start. For Lane Kiffin, he's hoping it was more of a wakeup call for a team that's talented but now facing the arduous task of rebounding quickly with a win inside hostile Williams-Brice Stadium against the Gamecocks. Another loss and Ole Miss is done in the SEC's playoff picture.
Michigan (at Washington): Unless the Wolverines find a passing attack, it's only a matter of time before the defending national champions start taking losses and fall out of the Big Ten title race. This team remains run-first and driven by defense, but they're going to need explosive plays this weekend against the Huskies.
Arizona (vs. Texas Tech): The first line of Arizona's eulogy was written after the blowout loss to Kansas State before that was quickly scribbled out following the triumph over Utah. Quarterback Noah Fifita made several key throws in that Big 12 opener and looked like his vintage self for the first time since Week 1. More good news for Arizona? Biletnikoff Award candidate and projected 2025 first-round NFL Draft pick Tetairoa McMillan hasn't reached the end zone in his last three games, yet the Wildcats have still found production elsewhere in the passing game.
LSU (bye): Like one-loss Ole Miss and Texas A&M, the Tigers are one of those mid-tier teams with a chance in the SEC. They've won four straight since the season-opening loss to USC and go head-to-head with three nationally ranked teams — including Ole Miss and Alabama — over the next five weeks. Those will be defining moments for Brian Kelly in Year 3.
Others in the mix: Good luck attempting to pick a Big 12 favorite at the moment given the wealth of teams separated by a game in the conference standings. That's going to sort itself out over the next few weeks before we get to the final month of the regular season, but Kansas State at Colorado next weekend could be an elimination game of sorts for the Wildcats if the Buffaloes are able to stay hot under Deion Sanders. Utah's loss to Arizona was unexpected for the preseason favorite, and with Cameron Rising's status being a weekly uncertainty, the Utes could be in trouble.
One-loss Boise State controls its own destiny in the Group of Five pecking order. The selection committee will not knock the Broncos if they win out with Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty barreling over the competition given what's ahead in the Mountain West, namely UNLV later this month. Service academies Army and Navy are still unblemished through Week 5. Who saw that coming? Navy's signature victory came against Memphis, while Army has beaten up on a soft slate up thus far.
Curt Cignetti is leading a confident bunch at Indiana. The Hoosiers have won five straight by double-digits to open the season and are a victory over Northwestern away from entering the open date with growing expectations. Unbeaten Rutgers is another team in the Big Ten worth keeping an eye on since the Scarlet Knights miss Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Oregon this season. We haven't mentioned Lincoln Riley and USC this week, but the Trojans remain in the picture. The bounce-back win against UCLA last week following a loss to Michigan was needed.
About the expanded CFP
The first College Football Playoff Rankings from the selection committee will be released on Nov. 5, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014.
In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee's opinion.
First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
