College Football Playoff overreactions: Discipline issues will doom Miami, Indiana the best team of modern era

And then there were two. The 2026 college football season has led to this: No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami will meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game to decide the best team in the country. 

In most years, the Hurricanes would be seen as an overwhelming favorite against Indiana. But Miami has gone on an underdog run of its own after making the playoff as the last at-large team. 

Indiana, meanwhile, has bowled over opposing teams en route to a 15-0 record. The Hoosiers are 2025's hegemon and it appears as if they aren't going away anytime soon. 

They handled their semifinal game against Oregon with ease, downing the Ducks 56-22. Miami, meanwhile, triumphed over Ole Miss in a 31-27 thriller that ranks as one of the best postseason games of the CFP era. 

Those semifinal games, of course, provided plenty of material to overreact to as the 2025 season nears its conclusion. 

Indiana is the best team of the CFP era 

Yes, better than 2019 LSU. The Hoosiers may not have as much elite NFL talent -- though quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a shoe-in to go first overall in the 2026 draft -- and the offense isn't quite as explosive, but they are a more complete team. 

Indiana's +473 point differential ranks first among schools in the playoff era (hat tip to my CBS Sports colleague Tom Fornelli). The Hoosiers have bludgeoned opposing teams by an average of 31.5 points per contest. Their last three wins against blue bloods Ohio State and Alabama and new blood Oregon have come by a combined score of 107-35. 

Curt Cignetti's squad has won all but one of its games against ranked opponents by at least 10 points. And Indiana is doing this in the Big Ten, one of the nation's premier conferences.  

The Hoosiers are also on the precipice of becoming the first college football program to ever go 16-0. Of course, they have the benefit of playing in the expanded playoff years, but an undefeated season in the modern era of college football, when parity is at an all-time high thanks to NIL, seems like an accomplishment that won't be easily repeated. 

After all, only four NFL teams have ever completed undefeated seasons and it only happened once after the league went to a 16-game schedule. 

Indiana vs. Miami: Early preview, odds, picks as Hoosiers will meet Hurricanes in CFP National Championship

Chip Patterson

Miami's discipline issues will doom it against Indiana

Miami was, somehow, able to overcome itself in the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss. The Hurricanes committed 10 penalties for a total of 74 yards, including a targeting foul that resulted in the ejection of cornerback Xavier Lucas. They dropped four potential interceptions. 

Those fouls allowed Ole Miss to hang around and even take the lead at certain points. Ultimately, the Rebels made a few crucial mistakes of their own -- and were pitiful on third down -- which allowed the Hurricanes to outlast Ole Miss. 

That won't do against the well-oiled Indiana machine. The Hoosiers rank third nationally with just 3.57 penalties per game. They're smart, they're disciplined and -- as was seen with D'Angelo Ponds' pick six to open Indiana's semifinal win over Oregon -- they will pounce all over any mistakes the opponent makes. 

Ultimately, discipline will make the difference in a battle between two teams that stack up fairly well otherwise. 

Oregon is in trouble 

You've certainly heard of a clutch gene if you're a fan of sports. Oregon coach Dan Lanning has the opposite. 

In their last three playoff games against Power Four opponents, the Ducks have been outscored 97-66. That includes a 23-0 romp against Big 12 champion Texas Tech this season. 

Talent isn't the issue with Oregon. The Phil Knight money certainly helps, but the Ducks have always recruited at a high clip. Coach Dan Lanning has done a good job at the high school level and in the portal. 

But there's plenty of reason to be concerned about the path that Oregon is walking with Lanning, especially given the recent postseason results. This will be a big offseason for him. 

The Ducks are set to lose both of their bright young coordinators. Will Stein is headed to coach Kentucky while Tosh Lupoi will lead former Pac-12 foe California. 

It is a good sign for a program's health when assistants get head coaching jobs, and it's a testament to what Lanning has built at the young age of 39. The next few months will be a huge test of his ability to keep the ship steady. 

Ole Miss is bigger than Lane Kiffin

It was time to stop talking about Kiffin's move to LSU once the playoff began, but the two will always be intrinsically linked given the time that Kiffin had in Oxford and the messy nature in which he departed. While Kiffin deserves his flowers for elevating the standard at Ole Miss, it's clear that the Rebels have outgrown the need for him. 

His departure didn't do the program any favors or anything like that. Pete Golding has shown, in short order, that he can at least maintain the level of success that Kiffin established -- if not exceed it. Golding, after all, has more playoff wins than Kiffin at this point, and he's only been a head coach for three games. 

Kiffin was certainly hoping that he'd be able to drag some of Ole Miss' top stars with him, but his decision instead galvanized the Rebels. Top running back Kewan Lacy, top linebacker Suntarine Perkins and edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen, along with a bevy of other key players, have already committed to returning. 

On top of that, Ole Miss is off to an incredible start in the transfer portal. The Rebels currently sit seventh in 247Sports' Team Transfer Rankings. They're one of just two schools in the top 10 with less than 10 commits thus far and their average prospect grade of 89.22 is first among top-15 transfer classes. 

Four of Ole Miss' nine transfer additions hold at least a four-star ranking. That includes LSU transfer Carius Curne, the No. 1 offensive tackle in the transfer portal, who spurned Kiffin for the Rebels.