Tom Fornelli's Four Pack: Picks for Ohio State-Miami, Alabama-Indiana and every game in CFP quarterfinals

We are through to the second round of the College Football Playoff, which means the world can no longer complain about two Group of Five teams being in the field, and wouldn't you know it, the talk around the playoff has gotten considerably quieter since.

Is it possible that having Tulane and James Madison in the field generated far more discussion of the games than having Notre Dame in would have? Maybe! I would bet the lack of discussion has a lot more to do with the holidays than the teams involved, but it'd be a lot funnier if it was strictly a result of people not having anything left to be angry about.

I do feel the need to point out, though, that while the G5 teams are gone, only one of this week's four quarterfinals has a spread smaller than a touchdown. Do I feel one or two of those spreads is too large? Too small? Let's break it down.

Cotton Bowl

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami: This is a trickier matchup for Ohio State than the spread seems to suggest. On the surface, I totally understand why the Buckeyes are favored by as much as they are. Yes, Miami beat Texas A&M on the road in the first round, and the winds were howling through Kyle Field, but the Hurricanes scored only 10 points. Ohio State's defense is a lot better than A&M's, which suggests Miami will have difficulty scoring.

But we know they won't have to deal with the wind this time, as the Cotton Bowl is indoors. Regardless, even if Miami's offense struggles again, I believe the Canes will hang around here. Ohio State is the best team in the country, but we have seen its offensive line struggle against the two best defensive fronts it saw all season: Texas and Indiana. A few weeks ago, I was extremely confident the Buckeyes would beat Michigan comfortably because the Michigan front seven wasn't quite as menacing as it had been in recent seasons. Texas and Indiana were, and Ohio State scored 24 points in two games against them.

Furthermore, Julian Sayin was pressured on 30.9% of his dropbacks against Texas and Indiana, while the Ohio State offense had a negative play rate of 30.91%. Compare those numbers to the 24.1% pressure rate and 21.15% negative play rate in Ohio State's other 11 games. Miami's defensive line could legitimately be the best one Ohio State has seen, and I'm expecting it to cause a lot of problems. I don't know if the unit can win this game by itself, but I don't know that it can't, either. I have Ohio State winning, but not nearly as comfortably as the spread suggests. The Pick: Miami +9.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Orange Bowl

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon: I am fascinated by this game. All season, I've harbored a suspicion that Oregon is yet to hit its peak performance, and injuries have certainly played a part in that down the stretch. At the same time, I also wonder if Oregon may not be the team we've seen all year. A very good team with holes like damn near everyone else. You can make all the excuses you want for what happened in the second half against James Madison in the last round, but the truth is, the Dukes were moving the ball before then; they simply didn't finish drives.

On the other side, the Oregon offense certainly won't have as easy a time in this one. If you haven't watched Texas Tech this year, the talk about its defensive line isn't hype. It's real. The front seven has been incredible, and I would argue it's the best Oregon has seen this year (they've played Indiana and Penn State, remember). I don't know how successful the Red Raiders' offense will be, as it's struggled to finish drives in the red zone all year, and Oregon's defense has been good in the red zone, but I expect that, like Miami, the Tech defense will keep this team in the game.

So I don't know who wins. I can see Oregon winning by enough to cover the spread because Tech's offense can't score. I can also see Tech smothering the Ducks and winning a rock fight. In the end, no matter the result, I don't see nearly as many outcomes where the Red Raiders score 27 points. The Pick: Texas Tech Team Total Under 26.5 (-118) at FanDuel

Rose Bowl

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama: What's crazier? That Alabama and Indiana are playing in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff, or that Indiana is favored by a touchdown in the game? It's wild to think of the history of these two programs and see them in this spot, but it's a great reflection of what college football is, and can be heading into 2026.

As for how this game will go, the loss of Stephen Daley on defense is a big one for Indiana. He led the team in tackles for loss with 19. Indiana's front seven has been spectacular all year, but it's not so much a talent situation as it is a discipline and coaching situation. That's not to say these guys aren't athletic freaks; they are. They're just also freakishly able to never be caught out of position. At the same time, Indiana has been a juggernaut, but it doesn't have the same kind of depth the other blue blood contenders in the field have, so a loss like Daley's isn't easy to replace.

And that will impact the Indiana defense overall. I also think that, based on what I saw from Oklahoma, the Indiana offense will be able to move the ball well against the Crimson Tide defense. If Oklahoma receivers did a better job catching passes, or John Mateer did a better job seeing them, the Sooners may have routed Alabama instead of blowing a 17-0 lead. Fernando Mendoza didn't win the Heisman by being a bad quarterback, and the Hoosiers have a much better rushing attack than the Sooners did, too. I'm not expecting a wild shootout here, but I'm not ruling it out, either. The Pick: Over 47.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Sugar Bowl

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss: The first meeting between these two was one of the most entertaining games of the year, and I hope the encore is nearly as fun. What stands out to me from that game, though, is how Georgia handled the second half. It was a common occurrence in Georgia games this season. Their opponent would jump out to a quick start and put the Dawgs in a hole, only to see Kirby Smart and company go to the locker room at halftime, get to work in the lab, fix things, then dominate the second half.

In this case, it was the fourth quarter. Ole Miss led 21-20 at halftime and 35-26 after three, but Georgia outscored them 17-0 in the final frame. Defensively, Ole Miss' final three possessions lasted 11 plays and totaled 13 yards. The Rebels will be much better than that in this game, but how much better?

Also, Georgia had eight full possessions in the game and scored points on all eight of them. The Ole Miss defense has been a sore spot all season, and it was no different last week. Tulane may have only scored 10 points, but it racked up 421 yards of offense. I'm skeptical Ole Miss will suddenly be able to get the stops it needs to pull off the upset in the rematch, much like Tulane couldn't get against the Rebels last week. The Pick: Georgia -6.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Who will win and cover in each college football bowl and playoff game? SportsLine's computer model just simulated each matchup 10,000 times and has revealed its picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all its college football picks.