The only set of talking points that matter this season make their debut Tuesday night.
Let the banter commence when the College Football Playoff Selection Committee reveals its first top 25 rankings spectacularly, giving us an early look at teams in the national championship conversation and where they're slotted ahead of a captivating regular season's final weeks.
Which metrics carry the most weight? Does strength of schedule and quality wins trump overall record? Committee chair Hunter Yurachek will do what he can to provide the best explanation on why teams are ranked where they are and what goes inside the CFP war room in Grapevine, Texas.
This season's 13-member selection committee includes Yurachek (Arkansas AD), Nebraska AD Troy Dannen, AD Doug Gillin from Appalachian State, Utah AD Mark Harlan, Middle Tennessee AD Chris Massaro and Virginia AD Carla Williams. Mark Dantonio, Gus Malzahn, Mike Riley and Jeff Tedford are the former head coaches on the committee, while Randall McDaniel, Wesley Walls and Ivan Maisel round out the members.
Important elements to know
AP and Coaches polls, recruiting rankings, college football's most-talented rosters, NFL Draft buzz — all those popular factors when grading teams are ignored by the selection committee, who each privately submit a list of 30 teams they consider the best in the country, and then a "master pool" of sorts is created among the ballots for teams mentioned on three or more of the lists.
Evaluation criteria from there center on on-field performance, data points and further metrics such as resume and record strength, game control, schedule toughness and head-to-head results along with common opponents.
Also, related player or coach availability are considered. There are two teams inside the top 10 right now with starting quarterbacks out for the season — Ohio State and UCLA. As a result, the selection committee could downgrade the Buckeyes and Bruins if they deem the absence of Julian Sayin and Nico Iamaleava, for instance, has altered the overall value of both teams.
The playoff bracket consists of the five highest-ranked conference champions along with the next seven highest-ranked at-large teams. The top-four seeds earn a first-round bye, while seeds 5-8 play at home in the opening round.
As an independent, Notre Dame has a playoff "assurance" of sorts this season as long as the Fighting Irish are ranked inside the final top 12.
What to watch for in first rankings
Tuesday night's reveal offers an initial look at who the selection committee believes are the 25 best teams in college football, but it will not be reflective of what's left this season and the next few polls leading up to Selection Sunday.
Entering the home stretch, several perceived national championship contenders still have nationally ranked opponents on the schedule, and the ACC is the only clear conference title race within the Power Four.
There are only 10 teams that have made it to No. 1 in the CFP Rankings, the first being Mississippi State in 2014's debut top 25. Unbeaten Miami will likely become the 11th on Tuesday night, setting up a potential top-five showdown with significant CFP Rankings implications in Week 10 at Notre Dame.
Who will be college football's highest-ranked two-loss team? Will we see a three-loss team in the initial rankings? These are questions the selection committee will provide answers to this week, with weighted influence on the metrics — one team's schedule vs. another, quality wins, etc.
It's necessary to remind fans that the selection committee defines a "ranked win" as a victory over a team currently ranked in their top 25. Remember — AP and Coaches polls have no influence this week and moving forward in the postseason discussion. Beating a then-ranked opponent in September who's not included in the selection committee's top 25 does not count as a ranked win.
New metric debuts this season
Amid the SEC's scheduling concerns with a ninth game added to the league slate this fall, the selection committee has enhanced its conference strength metric to evaluate teams — which should be beneficial to a league boasting more at-large hopefuls than any other.
The metric evaluating conference opponent strength will help further contextualize the power of a conference when comparing two similar teams. Most importantly, it will provide a measure of how tough a conference schedule was, even in regard to teams within the same league.
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey politicked for his league throughout the offseason in the midst of the Big Ten's three consecutive national championships. Part of the reason the SEC has since shifted its stance on CFP expansion to 24 teams is due to more expected bites at the apple in 2027 and beyond.
"If you look at the entirety of our league, we are by far the most competitive, the strongest football league by far," Sankey said in May.
We'll see how this heightened conference strength metric plays out Tuesday night, but more specifically, on Selection Sunday when there's a logjam of at-large hopefuls with plenty from the SEC.
Teams on the bubble
According to numbers from the NCAA, teams inside the initial top six of the CFP Rankings are essentially locks (92%) to make the final field in the 12-team bracket era. Furthermore, all at-large selections over the last two seasons of the expanded bracket have appeared inside the top 18 of the first rankings, which is bad news for multi-loss teams outside of the top 20 on Tuesday night — unless history is made next month.
Looking over two seasons of data, 50% of the teams that were ranked No. 1-4 in the first CFP Rankings did not appear inside the top four in the final rankings before the postseason. If we're going by recent history, if you're not ranked on Tuesday night, there's no getting in the CFP's final bracket.
The numbers suggest if you're inside the top 6 on Tuesday night, you're in the final CFP field unless you experience chaos over the next few weeks. Miami (2024) is the only team to be ranked inside the top six of the initial rankings and miss the field entirely.
