Never has Texas State been more valuable. Or Toledo. Or UTEP. Or North Dakota State for that matter.
Who knows as conference realignment rounds the latest crazy turn and heads toward an absurd homestretch. Last week, the American Athletic Conference stood strong. Earlier this month, the Pac-12 raided the Mountain West ... or was it the other way around?
Either way, the Pac-Whatever and the Mountain West continue to be conferences in name only. Utah State joined San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State in jumping from the MWC to the Pac-12; Air Force, San Jose State and UNLV opted to stay with the Mountain West. For a moment, UNLV -- 104th in total FBS football viewership since 2016 -- was desired by all of those three conferences. Just not by its starting quarterback.
Meanwhile, the MWC, using exit fees the Pac-12 paid to snatch its five members, then turned around and used that cash to incentivize the current six full-time members to stay. Things got so heated that UNLV went from being coveted by the Pac-12 to being sued by the Pac-12 in the span of a week.
You can't make this stuff up, folks.
We found out the Mountain West had a grant of rights from six schools -- but granted to what? The MWC is still waiting on two more full pledges to actually become a conference again. The phone lines are open, and operators are standing by for any schools interested. There were reports over the weekend that the MWC was zeroing on Texas State as lucky No. 7.
The Pac-12 (as of this writing) also remains under the eight-team threshold after Memphis and Tulane reaffirmed their loyalty to the American. Such is current realignment as we know it.
Add it up, and the MWC and Pac-12 have almost assured mutual irrelevancy. Before this latest round of realignment, there was no doubt the Mountain West was the dominant Group of Five conference (at least in terms of access to the College Football Playoff).
Now? Well, the Pac-12, if it shores itself up, will be a solid, upstanding member of what is now the Group of Six conferences. In addition to Texas State, the Mountain West is reportedly interested in Toledo and NIU from the MAC. The truth is the league has been evaluating dozens of schools, sources tell CBS Sports. If there is any solace to be had, apparently the Mountain West won't dip down to FCS to fill out its roster. So forget about those North Dakota State and Montana State rumors. But this ain't over yet.
The solution is as obvious as the nose on Pinocchio's face: the schools in two almost-conferences should have merged. Call it the Mountain Pac, the Pac West, the Jackson Five, it doesn't matter. Such a conference would have a CFP berth nailed in most years.
Make that nine out of 10 years. That lineup of schools that should have been (once again for your viewing pleasure) …
- Oregon State
- Washington State
- Fresno State
- Colorado State
- San Diego State
- San Jose State
- Tulane
- Memphis
- UNLV
- Boise State
- New Mexico
- Air Force
Those programs have the most legacy in the Group of Five. By legacy, I mean the best programs available with a postseason history. Oregon State, Washington State, Tulane and Boise State each played in BCS/New Year's Six bowls. They are the "Best Of The Rest Coast" had to offer after the old Pac-12 split apart.
Oregon State and Washington State had/have a $250 million war chest to sprinkle among its partners to keep its athletic departments spending on a Power Five level for as long as possible. (Oregon State said recently it has enough cash to do so for the next three years.)
Instead, the pair used that money to pry those five schools away from the MWC by paying their exit fees. The new Pac-12 is now going to waste legal fees suing the MWC.
But the best reason to merge is there would be something more for play for. The conference champ would be in the CFP in most years. The team would have been the ultimate underdog in getting to that point. Historically, college football hates underdogs. You shouldn't have to be reminded the SEC has won 13 of the last 17 national championships.
The expanded CFP is not only giving the Group of Five (soon to be Six) access, but a chance to rewrite that history. Under Chris Petersen, Boise State proved it could play with the big boys. Go Google Fresno State under Pat Hill. UNLV already has two wins this season over Power Five opponents.
This new CFP gave them that access to … play … for … a … national … championship. If nothing else, ESPN will devote significant resources to pumping up that underdog angle. To this point, these leagues have played with their food for so long in realignment their chances at bogarting that Group of Five berth have diminished.
It's going to be a crapshoot out there between the American, Pac-12 and Mountain West. May the best in mediocrity win. Actually, all three of them should have merged.
What I'm hearing right now …
Toledo and Northern Illinois would have to do some soul searching to go the Pac-12. There would be a definite bump in revenue; the MAC averages $1.5-2 million per team annually in media revenue. The reconstituted MWC will be at somewhere around $5-$7 million.
But how much of that new revenue would be eaten up in travel? Thanks to the folks at airmilescalculator.com, we know that Toledo is 600 miles closer to London, England, than it would be to new Mountain West rival Hawaii.
USF seemed never to be a candidate for the Pac-12 when its name surfaced because of that same reason. In the MWC, the Bulls' closest road trip would be to Colorado State, more than 1,500 miles away. The average roadie for the remainder of the conference would be more than 2,200 miles.
But we've crossed that threshold with UCLA this season flying the equivalent of 89% of the way around the circumference of the Earth in the Big Ten. Geography doesn't matter, apparently, until it hits the wallets of the Group of Five.
Things have been quiet with the Pac-12 after Tulane, Memphis, USF and UTSA rebuffed the conference's attempts to lure the schools. Memphis AD Ed Scott went public, saying the Pac-12's offer of $2.5 million to exit the American was way too low. Memphis faced $25 million in exit fees from its current conference.
One industry source suggested the Pac-12 may take another run at the schools by raising the offer.
The MWC may have soured on filling in with FCS members because of the mandatory two-year waiting period for those schools to get full FBS membership and be eligible for a bowl. James Madison was denied a waiver to play in a bowl last season while it was transitioning.
Plus, one source mentioned possible pushback from the power conferences. They simply don't want, for example, the Sacramento State president suddenly armed with a vote to impact, say, the House v. NCAA settlement.
Industry sources continue to say the value of the reassembled MWC and Pac-12 won't be much different than the current Mountain West. The usual suspects continue to be out there as possible TV partners --- Fox, CBS, ESPN. Could there be a wild-card bidder out there that is willing to scratch a big check? TNT recently lost the NBA and might have a willingness to fill slots. A spokesman for TNT Sports deferred comment.
"We are diligent with our approach to sports media rights, and if there are opportunities available in the marketplace, we at least have discussions with all parties," the spokesman said in an email.
Whatever the two conferences do to fill out, industry sources agree those additions are going to be "dilutive." That is, not adding to the value of the league. UNLV AD Erick Harper provided a hint of what the Pac-12 is offering when he told CBS Sports last week that number was projected to be $10-$15 million per school annually.
That prompted this response from veteran Jim Williams, an Emmy-winning sports media consultant:
"From a television standpoint, who the heck is going to pay you [that] money?" Williams asked. "You took a conference [MWC] that was worth $5 million per school and you split it in half. No sense. They're not going to get that [$10-$15 million).
"How the hell does Oregon State and Washington feel as if they're entitled to big money?" Williams continued. "[Those leagues] don't have four time zones. They have two time zones where 22% of the country lives. I like watching Mountain West basketball and football, but not to the point where if I'm a media person I'm going to give you a check for $7 million or $8 million or $9 million dollars."