No. 10 Florida State built a College Football Playoff-caliber roster in 2023 by threading a perfect needle between transfer portal additions and internal development. Naturally, the Seminoles tried the strategy again over the offseason, reeling in 17 transfers and the No. 7 transfer class in the nation.
But if a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, for Week 0 is any indication, lightning rarely strikes twice.
The Seminoles didn't look "back" to business by any means against the Yellow Jackets, or back to the levels of Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher that made them a national power. Instead, they were "back" to looking like a group playing together for the first time ever, more reminiscent of Mike Norvell's early years.
Looking down the roster, it's easy to see why.
The Seminoles replaced experienced quarterback Jordan Travis with Oregon State transfer DJ Uiagalelei. He failed to reach 200 yards passing. Wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are in the NFL. Top transfer Malik Benson had just 39 yards receiving. Transfer running back Roydell Williams mustered just 3.2 yards per carry. A full 58 of Florida State's 98 yards rushing came on the first scripted drive of the game.
Florida State entered the season boasting -- supposedly -- the nation's best defensive line, despite losing Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to the NFL. Georgia Tech's offensive line bulldozed them to the tune of 5.3 yards per carry, including 6.4 yards per carry from running backs. The entire defensive line, including Georgia transfer Marvin Jones, combined for 0.5 tackles for loss. Florida State, conversely, gave up three tackles for loss to defensive linemen and seven TFLs overall.
Everywhere Florida State hoped to seamlessly plug a hole, there were cracks forming. And even worse, the Seminoles barely even had a unit that looked ready to lead the team. The most positive sign was an encouraging first half from all-purpose senior Lawrance Toafili, but that's nowhere near enough to build a serious ACC contender.
Last season, the top five teams in the 247Sports team transfer rankings were Colorado, Ole Miss, USC, LSU and Auburn. Only the Rebels exceeded their preseason win total. While Week 0 games aren't always the perfect indicator of program success (look at Northwestern winning its only game of 2022 in Ireland, for example), Georgia Tech revealed enough red flags to set off some real alarms for teams hoping to reload and maintain through the transfer portal.
College football history is littered with one-year wonders whose production falls back to Earth. TCU reached the national championship game in 2022 and failed to reach bowl eligibility one year later. Auburn rode Cam Newton to a national title in 2010 only to go 8-5 in 2011. Washington, entering the Big Ten with a new coach (Jedd Fisch) and retooled starting 22, is facing a similar dilemma after reaching the national title game last season.
There was optimism that Florida State, as a somewhat recent national championship program, would simply be able to ride the wave. Multiple programs across the country tried to replicate the Seminoles' portal success from 2023 and have breakout seasons of their own. For the "Portal Kings" at Ole Miss and Colorado, take the Seminoles' stumble as a warning sign.
By the way, Georgia Tech ranks No. 44 in returning production overall, including No. 8 on offense. That chemistry and communication was a devastating advantage as quarterback Haynes King and running back Justice Haynes combined to engineer two scoring drives to win the game. That's the kind of benefit that a program can't find in the portal.
Is Florida State's season over? Not necessarily. The expanded College Football Playoff gives the Seminoles some breathing room. The ACC champion is essentially guaranteed a spot in the field. However, guaranteeing wins on the schedule becomes a lot more difficult after watching Florida State flame out in Ireland. Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami could all easily be losses. SMU, Florida and Memphis won't be easy, either.
Teams grow the most between their first two games, and that should be true for a Florida State team still trying to learn about itself. Still, Florida State is the first team in ACC play with a loss. In an eight-game conference slate in which 17 teams are vying for two slots, these margins matter more than ever.
Almost every year, a preseason top-10 team falls all the way out of the rankings. For the first time in the BCS/CFP era, a top-25 team has already lost by Aug. 24.
Florida State's breakout 2023 season was a perfect storm of things going right. Until further notice, it should be viewed as the exception, not the rule.
