One of the staples of offseason Friday Fives has been ranking the best values in early Heisman Trophy odds. Well, earlier this week Bovada released its odds for the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner only 11 months before the award will be handed out, and both Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins and Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor are your early favorites at 6/1 odds.
I thought about once again doing the best values on the board, but then decided to change things up this time. Instead of ranking the best values, I'm going to rank the five worst values on the board right now. The sucker bets, if you will. These are the bets that you would be foolish to put your money on at their current odds because the chances of these players winning just don't add up to what the payout is.
In case that wasn't clear enough, I'm not here to say that these players can't win the Heisman or won't win the Heisman in 2018. I have no idea who is going to win the award, and I'm a voter. What I'm saying is that the odds attached to them are unrealistic, to say the least, and you should avoid them at all costs.
5. Jake Fromm, Georgia (12/1): It's not an awful idea to think that Fromm can be a Heisman contender in 2018. He has a lot of key ingredients working for him, the two biggest being that he's a quarterback and on a team that could be contending for a national title next season. You might also think that with both Nick Chubb and Sony Michel moving on, more of the offense will be placed on Fromm's shoulders next season, but that's where you and I disagree.
Georgia is still going to be a team with an offense based on running the football. You might not know who De'Andre Swift is right now, but believe me, you will learn the name. In fact, I would much rather have Swift at 35/1 than Fromm at 12/1 right now.
4. Khalil Tate, Arizona (14/1): I love Khalil Tate. I love Khalil Tate so much that I get a little perturbed when somebody else says they love Khalil Tate because I feel like I loved him long before they did. In fact, one time I tweeted something about how amazing Khalil Tate was and his mom responded to the tweet, telling me she loves her son too, and I spent a good fraction of a second wondering if she loved him as much as I did.
So you get the point.
Anyway, as much as I love him, you'd have to be a fool to take Khalil at 14/1 right now. Arizona just went through a coaching change, and Tate will now be playing for Kevin Sumlin and Noel Mazzone. Sure, Sumlin had Johnny Manziel, but how have Sumlin's quarterbacks done since Manziel (and Kliff Kingsbury) left? Exactly. Tate is a human highlight film with all the potential of a magical season within him, but I'm not taking him at 14/1 odds.
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (7/1): Without Tagovailoa, Alabama doesn't beat Georgia in the title game. I'm not here to argue that. What I am here to argue is that, while he made some fantastic plays, Tua also made some bad decisions as well. There's a reason he wasn't the starter over Jalen Hurts all season, and it's because when you have a team that's as good as Alabama is in all facets of the game, you just need a QB who won't mess things up. It was the right decision to go to Tagovailoa in the second half because he could do things in the passing game that Hurts can't, and he was needed at that time.
But you know what? There's no guarantee Tua is even the starting QB for Alabama when next season starts. It might be Hurts, and it might be a situation in which we see both of them playing. Also, when is the QB the star of the Alabama offense? I've seen a few Alabama running backs win Heismans lately, but I haven't seen a quarterback do it. So if you want to take a quarterback who might not even be the team's starter at 7/1, you go right ahead. I'll be here not being that stupid.
2. McKenzie Milton, UCF (25/1): UCF was a wonderful story in 2017, even if the over-the-top nature of claiming a national title was a little silly at the end. Milton was a major reason for the success, as he had a terrific season, but I'm not taking him to win the Heisman at 25/1 odds.
There are simply too many questions that need to be answered. Scott Frost is gone, and Josh Heupel has taken over. We don't know exactly what the offense will look like seeing as how Heupel is more of an Air Raid spread, while Frost's offense was more the Oregon-style spread. Also, the odds of UCF going undefeated again are not good, and nobody from UCF is going to win a Heisman Trophy without having one of the most amazing seasons of all time. The odds of that happening aren't equal to 25/1.
1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State/Ed Oliver, Houston (66/1): Listen, I have always been That Guy who gets annoyed that defensive players don't get nearly as much love as they deserve in the Heisman conversation. That said, you'd have to be an idiot to take either of these guys at 66/1. It's not going to happen.
If you want to bet on either Bosa or Oliver, I have a much better idea. Contact me on Twitter, and I'll give you my Venmo information, and you can just send me the money instead. Cool?
Honorable Mention: Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State, 35/1; Will Grier, West Virginia 16/1; Bryce Love, Stanford 7/1
