Indiana vs. Miami prediction, odds, time: 2026 CFP National Championship Game best bets by proven model

The top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers look to become the second team to ever finish 16-0 when they battle the 10th-ranked Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship game on Monday. Miami (13-2) upset Texas A&M and Ohio State in the first two rounds and then won and covered (-3.5) against Ole Miss in the semifinals. Indiana (15-0) has breezed through its CFP schedule after enjoying a first-round bye, beating Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals and dominating Oregon 56-22 in the semifinals. Miami starting safety Xavier Lucas is suspended for the first half after being called for targeting in the semifinals. Starting tight end Elija Lofton is out for Miami, while reserve safety Damari Brown is considered a game-time decision. 

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., which is the Hurricanes' home venue, with kickoff temperature in the low 60s. The Hoosiers are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Miami vs. Indiana odds. The over/under for total points scored is 46.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Before locking in any any Indiana vs. Miami picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $300 in bonus bets if your $5+ bet wins:

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Miami vs. Indiana. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Indiana vs. Miami:

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $300 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins. 

Why Indiana can cover

Junior quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza helps power the Hoosiers' offense. In 15 games, he has completed 73% of his passes for 3,349 yards and 41 touchdowns with just six interceptions. He also has rushed 83 times for 284 yards and six scores. In the national semifinal win over the Oregon Ducks, he completed 17 of 20 passes for 177 yards and five touchdowns. 

Mendoza's elite accuracy makes Indiana's offense extremely tough to stop, but the Hoosiers are also incredibly strong on defense. Indiana finished the regular season ranked fourth nationally in total defense. Indiana has been just has stingy in the postseason, holding Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon to an average of just 11.6 points per game.  See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why Miami can cover 

Senior quarterback Carson Beck helps guide the Hurricanes. In 15 games, he has completed 73.3% of his passes for 3,581 yards and 29 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. He has also rushed for a pair of touchdowns. In the national semifinal win over Ole Miss, he completed 23 of 37 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. The Miami ground attack is led by junior running back Mark Fletcher Jr. In 13 games this season, he has carried 199 times for 1,080 yards (5.4 average) and 10 touchdowns. 

Miami's defensive front could be an x-factor in this matchup. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. has been borderline unblockable at times as the likely top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft has piled up four sacks in the CFP. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Indiana vs. Miami picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 48 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Indiana vs. Miami, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Miami vs. Indiana spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.