Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has been one of the surest bets in college football over the past 15 years. The Cowboys have eight 10-win seasons since 2010 and a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game in 2023. The Cowboys had the second-most returning production in the Big 12 heading into 2024 and were considered a leading title contender.
That's what makes this start so damaging. The No. 20 Cowboys got boatraced 42-20 against No. 23 Kansas State to drastically shift their place in the Big 12 title race. Suddenly, the chances of getting into the College Football Playoff as an at-large are all but extinguished. The pathway to the Big 12 Championship Game is substantially more difficult.
Granted, these first two games of the Big 12 slate for Oklahoma State were always the most difficult. The Cowboys got Big 12 preseason favorite Utah in the opener (a 22-19 loss) and immediately went on the road at Kansas State. The Wildcats, picked No. 2 in the preseason conference poll, needed to bounce back after losing to BYU one week ago. OSU was a late rally against Utah away from losing the two games by a combined 66-23.
There are still plenty of winnable games left on the schedule for Oklahoma State, but the matchups against conference title contenders showed where the Cowboys stand. There's an unbelievable microscope on the Big 12's marquee games. The race for the championship game will be perhaps the most competitive in college football. Last season, the Big 12 had to release clarifications each week on its tiebreaker rules because the semantics were so complicated.
In two of the last three years, a team that finished 7-2 in the Big 12 standings missed out on the Big 12 title game -- Oklahoma in both 2021 and 2023, the latter of which whiffed after losing to Oklahoma State in the final Bedlam game. That dynamic will only get more pronounced as 16 teams fight for two spots in a divisionless set up.
New momentum for K-State
On the other side, Kansas State showed how much teams have to gain. After beating Oklahoma State, the Wildcats have a major tiebreaker heading into the heart of the season. They don't have another ranked opponent until a road game on Nov. 30 against No. 18 Iowa State. If results hold, that very well could be a play-in game for the Big 12 Championship Game.
Fueling that optimism is the bounce-back performance of quarterback Avery Johnson. The first-year starter turned the ball over twice in a loss to BYU and failed to score a touchdown. Against the Cowboys, Johnson reached the end zone five times, including his first two rushing scores of the year.
Any consternation about the regular season not mattering anymore in college football in the age of the expanded College Football Playoff is proven short-sighted by games like these. Kansas State's season swung its way into the Big 12 title frame with a win. Oklahoma State's life got much more difficult.
When the final selections are made for Arlington, Kansas State's win over Oklahoma State in September will stand tall. The Cowboys' failures in these games will only make their path tougher.