William Gholston looks to make life difficult for Joe Southwick on Friday night. (US Presswire)

MICHIGAN STATE WILL WIN IF: A punishing defense that returns eight starters can play up to the same level it did in 2011. The Spartans defense tenth in the nation last season in points allowed, surrendering only 18.4 points per game. Defensive ends William Gholston, Marcus Rush and linebacker Denicos Allen return, and together that trio played a large role in Michigan State finishing the season with 45 sacks last season. That had the Spartans tied with Oregon for third most in the nation.

On offense being conservative should work best for the Spartans this week. While Boise State returns only two starters on defense, Michigan State only has running back Le'Veon Bell returning at any of the skill positions. So with Bell and four of five starters on the offensive line returning, Michigan State should focus on its ground game Friday night.

BOISE STATE WILL WIN IF: Replacing a quarterback that was as important to the program as Kellen Moore won't be easy for Boise State, and that task becomes more difficult when you realize Boise State has only seven starters total returning from 2011. The key for Boise State this week will be its offensive line. Joe Southwick is going to need time to move the ball through the air, and D.J. Harper will need holes to run through. This sounds simple enough, but actually executing against a defense like Michigan State's is not an easy task.

The Broncos will also have to stop the run and do so quickly. Boise State's front seven on defense is entirely new in 2012, and a matchup against Michigan State and Le'Veon Bell will be a difficult test. With so many new starters on both sides of the ball, it's imperative that the Boise State defense stops the Michigan State run game and forces new Spartan quarterback Andrew Maxwell to beat the Broncos with his arm.

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X-FACTOR: Joe Southwick. Southwick becomes the first quarterback not named Kellen Moore to start a game for Boise State since 2007, and he has some very large shoes to fill. Starting a game on the road against a defense as strong as Michigan State's is not the ideal way to begin your career as a starter, but if Southwick can stay composed and execute the offense then Boise State might surprise a lot of people.