The Florida State Seminoles will visit the No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday in a matchup of two of the biggest brands in college football, albeit they're having far different 2024 college football seasons. Notre Dame is 7-1 overall and 3-1 at home, while Florida State is 1-8 overall and 0-3 on the road. The Seminoles have lost five straight, including a 35-11 defeat to North Carolina last week. The Irish are riding a six-game win streak and handed then-undefeated Navy its first loss with a 51-14 victory in their last game. FSU leads the all-time series, 6-5, but Notre Dame won the last meeting in 2021.
Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium. The Fighting Irish are favored by 26 points in the latest Florida State vs. Notre odds, per SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 42.5 points, down from opening at 47.5. Before entering any Notre Dame vs. Florida State picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is a sizzling 18-9 on all top-rated picks over the past six weeks of this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
The model has set its sights on Notre Dame vs. FSU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for FSU vs. Notre Dame:
- Notre Dame vs. Florida State spread: Notre Dame -26
- Notre Dame vs. Florida State over/under: 42.5 points
- Notre Dame vs. Florida State money line: ND -6250, FSU +1870
- Notre Dame vs. Florida State picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Notre Dame vs. Florida State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Florida State can cover
Despite an extremely disappointing season overall, Florida State has been more competitive as of late. It failed to cover in each of its first three games but has gone 3-3 against the spread (ATS) since. That includes covering in both of its games this season against ranked teams, versus then-No. 15 Clemson and then-No. 6 Miami. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has underperformed when huge favorites in 2024. This is the third game in which it's been favored by 24-plus points, and the Irish lost versus the spread in the previous two.
On defense, the Noles are adept at getting to the quarterback, ranking 18th in the nation in sack percentage, including taking down Heisman favorite Cam Ward of Miami four times. That pass defense gets to face a passing offense which is the weakness of the Irish. Notre Dame ranks just 99th (out of 134 FBS teams) in passing yards per game, which often stunts drives by not converting on third downs. Then, the Irish aren't being bailed out by their kicking game, which ranks 114th in FG percentage, and when you add in that 73 FBS teams commit fewer penalties per game than Notre Dame, FSU can win on the margins. See which team to pick here.
Why Notre Dame can cover
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is coming off a bye, which followed a thrashing of Navy, in which quarterback Riley Leonard had 178 yards and two scores thru the air, plus 83 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Irish defense held the Midshipmen to just a 50% passing completion percentage, as only three opponents all season have completed over half of their passes versus the Irish. Notre Dame has forced 18 turnovers on the season, versus just 11 touchdowns allowed, which is a big reason why Marcus Freeman's squad has the No. 4 scoring defense in the nation.
For the season, Leonard has a rushing touchdown in each of his last seven games, while running back Jeremiyah Love has a rushing score in eight straight contests, with the latter tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS. The Irish have won six straight games and dominated in the process, with a 31.3-point average margin of victory. While this game is just the fourth time over the last 30 years that FSU will be an underdog of 23-plus points, it has failed to cover in each of the previous three. See which team to pick here.
How to make Notre Dame vs. Florida State picks
The model has simulated FSU vs. Notre Dame 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Notre Dame vs. FSU, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida State vs. Notre Dame spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.
