SEC college football picks, odds in Week 2: Texas fights for early season SEC pride in trip to Michigan

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Week 2 of the college football season provides us with one of the bigger nonconference games of the season, and the SEC is set to face big early season tests with three programs leaving their home states to play ranked teams.

Two College Football Playoff teams from last season meet at The Big House when No. 3 Texas (1-0) travels to No. 10 Michigan (1-0), the defending national champion. Michigan isn't quite what it was last season, it appears, and fell one spot in the AP Top 25 after a listless offensive performance in a 30-10 victory against Fresno State. Texas picked up where it left off last season with quarterback Quinn Ewers and new firepower at receiver following a Week 1 blowout of Colorado State.

All eyes will be on Ann Arbor, but the SEC has a lot at stake elsewhere in nonconference games with the Big 12 and ACC. Strength of schedule is more important than ever in the 12-team era of the College Football Playoff (more on that in a minute), and solidifying the conference over the Big Ten will be crucial if the SEC intends to challenge for five spots in the postseason. There's a long way to go, sure, but big games in the first two weeks of the season will directly affect the SEC's standing in the hierarchy down the road.

So far, results have been mixed. LSU came up short against USC, losing its fifth straight season opener, and Georgia trounced Clemson, a program that continues to fade in the background since its title runs in the mid-2010s. The conference's footing didn't get much help with South Carolina struggling to beat Old Dominion, and most of the conference opted to feed on weak FCS opponents to start the season.

Why so many cupcakes?

The SEC made history in Week 1, beating seven opponents by 50-plus points, the most by any conference since at least 2000. Five wins were by more than 60 points.

Overall, the SEC was 13-3, with its wins coming by an average score of 53-5. Six games were shutouts. Three teams scored more than 70 points. Arkansas became the first team in 20 years to score touchdowns on the first 10 possessions of a season, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

SEC fans will boast, but they shouldn't. None of the blowouts were entertaining to anyone except the home crowds, hungry to see their teams for the first time. That novelty wears off in Weeks 2 and 3. Most of the blowouts came against FCS teams, the feeder fish of college athletics. The SEC stalks the waters, rips apart its prey, and FCS teams go home with a nice paycheck for their troubles. Casual fans don't show up to the stadiums and don't tune in on television. There's no threat, no drama. Only one SEC team outside Vanderbilt has lost to an FCS opponent in the last decade.

At some point, the reliance on FCS opponents to fill a four-game nonconference schedule will bite the conference in the playoff committee's analytics, which makes a move to nine conference games all the more pertinent beyond 2025. A decision should be reached in January after the first iteration of the 12-team playoffs is conducted -- and the playoff managers decide whether to expand (again) to 14 or 16 teams in 2026.

This isn't just an SEC problem, but among the big two conferences, it is the worst. Only 15 FBS teams do not play an FCS opponent this fall. Five of those teams reside in the Big Ten, including USC, which has never played an FCS team. (Texas is the only SEC team without an FCS opponent on the schedule.) The Big Ten's nine-game conference schedule and restrictions on FCS scheduling may bolster that league to No. 1 by default at the end of the season.

The widening margin on the scoreboard should have been expected with the transfer portal robbing the FCS of its best players. Meanwhile, the big dogs in the Big Ten and SEC are only improving after the latest round of conference realignment.

If the idea is to bolster FCS programs financially, why not schedule spring games against FCS teams and leave the power conferences to schedule other FBS teams during the fall? It inserts something new into the mundane intrasquad spring scrimmages, and several coaches and administrators are open to the concept. In the fall, replace those FCS opponents with Group of Five schools. Believe it or not, MAC and Sun Belt schools need money, too.

"If [Alabama wants] to pay me $2 million, I'll be down there on Saturday and Sunday, I'll play them twice, get four million and help our budget," Jacksonville State coach Rich Rodriguez said on his weekly radio show. "They can beat our brains in for a couple million dollars, for sure. I'll call my buddy Greg Byrne, the AD down there, and say 'Listen, Greg, we'll go down there for $2 million, and if you want to do the back-to-back, we'll go for $4 million and have a great time.' I'll even sing 'Roll Tide' for them, if they want."

Just a SECond

Before we move on to this week's SEC picks, here are a few interesting notes to get you ready for Saturday:

Georgia's 40-game winning streak in the regular season is the longest in the FBS since Oklahoma, which won 45 straight from 1953-57.
Michigan and Texas have met only one other time, in the 2004 Rose Bowl, which Texas won 38-37 thanks to Vince Young's five touchdowns.
Michigan has won 29 straight regular-season games, the best streak in Big Ten history. The Wolverines have won 23 straight at Michigan Stadium.
Florida hasn't started a season 0-2 since 1971, the longest streak in the FBS. The Gators (0-1) host Samford this week.
Missouri scored three touchdowns in the first 5:19 last week against FCS Murray State, the fastest scoring onslaught in school history.
Oklahoma drilled Temple 51-3 despite going 1 for 12 on third downs, which was Week 1's worst conversion rate in the FBS. The Sooners were perfect on fourth downs, however (3 for 3).

Picks

Straight up: 9-1 | Against the spread: 6-4

*Picks use opening SportsLine consensus odds

No. 3 Texas at No. 10 Michigan

Michigan's defense is no pushover, but that offense leaves a lot to be desired. One should always be cautious of judging a team based on a Week 1 result, but I'm confident in saying Michigan's offense is nowhere close to what it was a year ago. Former walk-on Davis Warren gives the Wolverines their best shot at quarterback, but don't expect explosive plays to be common this season in Ann Arbor. Meanwhile, Texas is hitting on all cylinders as you would expect. The key development is Steve Sarkisian expanding the receiver rotation from three to five players to six to eight. Last week, all four touchdown catches were made by transfers. Pick: Texas -3.5

No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 24 NC State (Charlotte)

Dare we say veteran transfer quarterback Grayson McCall seems shaky in NC State's offense? The former Coastal Carolina superstar wasn't at his best last week but did rally from a fourth-quarter deficit to beat FCS Western Carolina by 17. Meanwhile, Tennessee's Nico Iamaleava (314 yards in the first half last week) looks the part of the superstar we saw in the bowl game. The Volunteers scored on their first seven drives. Iamaleava completed 2 of 4 passes of more than 20 air yards. One item to remember: NC State failed to have a 100-yard rusher since 2021 but finally had one last week. That's a good sign for the Wolfpack in an otherwise disappointing showing. However, the Vols have too much firepower and a solid defense. Pick: Tennessee -5.5

Arkansas at No. 16 Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State will go as far as its offensive line and Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II will carry the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys have the oldest and most experienced offensive line in college football history, with players averaging 23.6 years old. Arkansas' offense looks revitalized with Bobby Petrino back in town calling plays and former Boise State quarterback Taylen Green running and throwing (the Razorbacks scored touchdowns on all 10 possessions last week). The Cowboys have won 24 home games since 2020, second only to Alabama in the FBS. This game could finish in the 30s, but the Hogs close the gap to cover as the Pokes pick up the win. Pick: Arkansas +9.5

South Carolina at Kentucky

Boy, South Carolina has significant problems on offense. The Gamecocks' two touchdowns in a 23-19 squeaker against Old Dominion were gift-wrapped turnovers inside the 10-yard line. Heralded freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers completed only 10 of 24 passes for 114 yards and was sacked four times. His legs got them out of trouble with 68 yards on 22 totes. He should be better than this.

Meanwhile, Kentucky cruised to a 31-0 win against Southern Miss in a weather-shortened game that ended in the third quarter. Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff looked pretty darn good, completing 12 of 18 throws for 169 yards and three touchdowns against one interception (a tipped ball), and the new transfers at receiver have curbed the the dropped pass rate from the group last season. South Carolina has won the last two in this series, but I've got the Wildcats pulling away in a double-digit win Saturday. Pick: Kentucky -6

Cal at Auburn

Not many people watched Auburn last week in its opener against Alabama A&M, but the world is about to learn all about its stable of new, electric receivers. Freshman Cam Coleman is the real deal and Penn State transfer KeAndre Lambert-Smith provides veteran savvy on the field. This offense can -- and will be -- explosive, but I still have questions about Payton Thorne's accuracy. He's prone to miscues but doesn't get enough credit as a runner. Cal can stay in this game with two or three turnovers, just as it did last week when it pulled away in the second half against UC Davis. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza wasn't great last week (15 of 22 for 158 yards), and playing at Jordan-Hare Stadium is going to be a monumental task for the Bears. If RB Jaydn Ott can be productive with 20-plus carries, the Bears can cover. I don't expect that. Pick: Auburn -13.5

Mississippi State at Arizona State

Arizona State flew under the radar with one of the more surprising results of Week 1: a 48-7 win against a solid Wyoming team. The Sun Devils defense was most impressive, picking off two passes in the first quarter and allowed only 118 yards. This game could be a high-scoring affair. I am -- and have always been -- a big believer in quarterback Blake Shapen, the Baylor transfer now leading Mississippi State in Jeff Lebby's new Air Raid offense. I love how he moves with the ball and his ability to run will keep defenses off balance. As good as Arizona State's defense was last week, Mississippi State might be better. Playing on the road hurts MSU in this spot, especially with an offense that tries to average three plays per minute (!). I'm more confident in this game hitting the over (55.5) than I am with my winner. Pick: Arizona State -1.5

Houston at No. 15 Oklahoma

Houston was demolished at home by UNLV, and though I'm a Barry Odom stans, that's unacceptable for a Big 12 team, even if it is transitioning with new head coach Willie Fritz, who was masterful at Tulane. Houston needs time as Fritz has proven to be a slow builder. The Cougars will walk into a buzz saw in Norman as Jackson Arnold and Co. continue to ramp up for their SEC opener in two weeks against Tennessee. Pick: Oklahoma -21.5