Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-to-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.

Sometimes I'm right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I'm going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.

Last week: 2-3 | 2016 season: 20-31 (39.2 percent)

Mississippi State at BYU (-7.5): The Cougars are brimming with confidence after a solid win against Michigan State, which might have be the Big Ten champs of a year ago but is still a very solid football team. BYU's offensive line, which has really been key in the Cougars' recent success, allowed zero sacks against the Spartans and paved the way for 260 rushing yards. Mississippi State, on the other hand, didn't have 100 yards of offense until the third quarter in its lopsided home loss to Auburn last week. A long trip on a short week, too? Sheesh. Bad spot for Dan Mullen's bunch. Pick: BYU -7.5


Vanderbilt at Georgia (-14): Jacob Eason played poorly in Georgia's win against South Carolina, but it was hard to dwell on that with so much excitement to see the Bulldogs' backfield operating at full speed. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel each ran for more than 100 yards and the offensive line earned praise for contributing to 326 team rushing yards against the Gamecocks. There's no way they are going to be able to replicate that against a stingy Vanderbilt defense, but Georgia should win by 7-10 points. Pick: Vanderbilt +14

Alabama (-12.5) at Tennessee: As banged up as Tennessee is, as tired as they much feel after three straight grinders on the road, this is a game that the Vols believe they can win. This was a game that they had a year ago until the six-minute mark in the fourth quarter before Jake Coker nailed a couple of tough throws to put Tennessee away. Unfortunately, I don't think this worn-and-torn team is going to be able to make it to the six-minute mark against Alabama, a group that seems to reaching the peak of its powers at the right point in the season. Lane Kiffin will be ruthless picking on a beat up secondary in the second half, when I'm expecting to see at least one long Calvin Ridley touchdown on a play where Kiffin has his hands in the air shortly after the snap. Pick: Alabama -12.5

Missouri at Florida (-13.5): Florida hasn't covered since plastering Kentucky, but getting Luke Del Rio back should provide enough of a spark for the Gators to have the same success against Missouri that we saw against LSU. Mizzou won't give up as many points in this game as it did in Tiger Stadium, but Drew Lock won't find much success against the Gators' phenomenal pass defenders. A score of 24-7 or 24-10 sounds right, so I'll take the favorite, but I'd shy away from this game in general with few certainties in the current state of Florida's offense. Pick: Florida -13.5

Ole Miss (-7.5) at Arkansas: What happens when Arkansas plays good teams? The Razorbacks' gusty win against TCU doesn't carry the same juice that it did a few weeks ago, leaving this team with very few truly impressive performances. Ole Miss is a very good team, arguably even more dangerous than Texas A&M. This will be a double-digit win for the Rebels. Pick: Ole Miss -7.5

Southern Miss at LSU (-25.5): LSU's only cover of the 2016 season came in the win against Missouri. It might be slow-starting, but I can't see LSU's offense slowing down once it gets rolling against Southern Miss. I like the Eagles on the 1st half line but the Tigers to pull away in 45-14 kind of game. Pick: LSU -25.5