The Longhorns have a Quinn Ewers problem.
All right, that's a bit dramatic. It's more that the Longhorns and Quinn Ewers have a red zone problem. The primary problem is that they aren't performing well enough in that part of the field, and I believe Ewers is a large part of the reason why.
Texas' red zone woes were a primary topic of discussion last season. While the Longhorns won the Big 12 and reached the College Football Playoff, they did so while featuring a subpar red zone offense. Texas' average of 3.93 points per red zone possession last year ranked 107th nationally and 59th among the 69 programs in the Power Five (RIP) leagues. For some perspective, last year's fellow CFP participants ranked 8th (Alabama, 4.85), 10th (Michigan, 4.82) and 24th (4.6) among Power Five teams in points per red zone trip.
When it came to areas for improvement, it was a primary focus for Texas this offseason. One that, like the rest of Texas' offense, was affected by running back injuries before the season began. Still, red zone performance has improved. Texas is at 4.42 points per trip this year, nearly half a point more than last season, but it ranks only 67th nationally and 37th in the Power Four. So, Texas has gone from bad to average.
The problem is they've been veering toward below-average down the home stretch. Here's a comparison of how Texas' offense performed in its first seven games (including the first loss to Georgia) compared to the latest six.
| Texas Offense | Points per Possession | Points per Red Zone Possession |
|---|---|---|
First 7 Games | 3.08 | 4.92 |
Last 6 Games | 2.33 | 3.65 |
The 3.65 points the Longhorns have scored on red zone trips over their last six games are 0.28 points fewer than last year's 3.93 and would rank them 65th in the Power Four this year, ahead of teams like Michigan State, UCLA, Northwestern and Houston. That's not the kind of company Texas wants to keep, particularly compared to the company it'll be keeping in the playoffs.
So what happened?
There is no easy answer. The truth is it's likely a series of problems, but many of them center around Ewers. We have no idea how healthy Ewers is right now. He missed two games due to an oblique injury this season. If you've never suffered one, they suck. They're zero fun to have, and they don't heal with anything other than treatment and rest.
Depending on the severity of the strain, it's very possible Ewers hasn't healed, and he's simply been playing through it the best he can. Considering the torque a quarterback puts on his torso when throwing, that's no easy feat. Essentially, any time Ewers has to reach back and put some juice on a football, he's feeling that injury.
The red zone is an area where QBs are often forced to put a little more velocity on throws as the field shrinks and windows get tighter. I don't think it's a coincidence that since returning from the injury, a lot of Ewers' throws in the red zone or just outside it have been short throws, screens, or rainbow fades to the end zone, hoping his guy can make a play.
Too often, Texas isn't. The numbers reflect it clearly as a team, and even moreso individually. Here's how Ewers compares to the 12 quarterbacks leading the teams in the College Football Playoff.
| Red Zone Stat | Ewers (Rank Among 12 CFP Quarterbacks) |
|---|---|
Passing Efficiency | 172.1 (11th) |
Completion Rate | 58.3% (8th) |
Yards per Attempt | 3.5 (12th) |
Air Yards per Attempt | 5.0 (11th) |
Touchdown Rate | 26.7% (8th) |
Those are numbers as a passer, which leads to another problem Texas has with Ewers in the red zone. Among the 12 CFP quarterbacks, Ewers ranks fifth with 16 passing touchdowns but only eighth in total red zone touchdowns with 17. Ewers has one rushing touchdown in the red zone, which ties him with Georgia's Carson Beck and is one more than Tennessee's Nico Iamaleava.
But Beck and Iamaleava have been better passers, and while they don't rush for touchdowns, they've been better runners too. Of the 12 CFP QBs Ewers it the only one with negative rushing yards (-43) in the red zone. That's 59 yards fewer than Indiana's Kurtis Rourke, who ranks 11th. Ewers has been limited by an ankle injury since he got rolled up on by mammoth Kentucky defensive tackle Deone Walker in mid-November. Coach Steve Sarkisian updated the status of Ewers' health this week and said Ewers no longer needs the TayCo Athletic Brace on his right ankle. Still, Ewers was never to be confused with Vince Young.
There's a seemingly obvious answer looms on the sideline: Arch Manning.
In Texas' 17-7 win over Texas A&M, Manning came in for three of Texas 13 red zone plays and rushed for 14 yards, including a touchdown. I thought we'd see more of this plan in the SEC Championship, but Sarkisian and Texas had other ideas. Texas ran 10 plays in the red zone against Georgia, and Manning was on the sidelines for each one of them (he rushed for five yards on Texas' first play of the sole overtime frame). Texas' two red-zone possessions (not including OT) ended with three points. Georgia's three regulation possessions ended with 13. That 10-point gap was rather significant in a game that needed overtime to decide it.
So will we see more of Manning in the red zone against Clemson? It stands to reason it makes sense for Texas to consider it, but its first round matchup may not require it. The Clemson defense has allowed 4.21 points per red zone possession, which ranks 33rd in the Power Four. The Tigers have allowed 14 passing touchdowns in the red zone, which ranks 108th nationally. Meanwhile, only two of the 11 rushing touchdowns the Tigers have allowed have come against quarterbacks.
Even if it's not a necessity against Clemson, the overall numbers suggest that if Texas is to win four playoff games and win a national title, it has to do a much better job of finishing drives, and that likely means the Longhorns will have to hand the reins over to Manning more often than they have been.
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