The Monday After: Decline of Alabama offense is removing Tide from College Football Playoff contention

It's early November, and Alabama's College Football Playoff hopes are effectively over. The Crimson Tide are 7-2 after falling to LSU 32-31 in overtime Saturday. While the first two-loss team in the four-team playoff era would likely to be from the SEC, it wouldn't be a non-conference champion, which means it likely won't be Alabama. 

Should the Tide miss the CFP for the second time in nine seasons, its offense would be to blame. That might seem strange to say about a team that ranks sixth nationally in points per game, but a look beneath the hood shows it is not operating at the same elite level it has been over the last few years.

Nearly a decade ago, following the 2013 season in which Alabama started 11-0 but lost the Iron Bowl watched Auburn play for a national title (the Tide would go on to lose the Sugar Bowl as well to finish 11-2), Nick Saban made an important decision that helped solidify his status as the greatest college football coach of all time. He realized the way he'd been doing things on offense wouldn't work if he wanted to continue recruiting at a level that could win national titles. He replaced offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier with Lane Kiffin, who modernized the Tide offense. It worked. Suddenly, Alabama had an offense that was just as good, if not better, than its defense. It went from having game managers at quarterback to first-round NFL Draft picks.

In Saban's first seven seasons at Alabama, his teams produced two draft picks at receiver: first-round pick Julio Jones in 2011 and fourth-round pick Kevin Norwood in 2014. In the nine seasons since Saban modernized his offense, Alabama has had nine receivers drafted, and only two of them (2017 third-round pick ArDarius Stewart and 2022 second-round pick John Metchie) were selected after the first round. DeVonta Smith even won the Heisman Trophy in 2020, becoming the first receiver to win the award since Desmond Howard in 1991.

Those first-round picks don't exist on the 2022 Alabama offense, however. Carrying the group are quarterback Bryce Young, running back Jahmyr Gibbs ... and that's about it. Young won the Heisman last season, but one could argue he's been more impressive this season despite his numbers because he's had to carry the load himself. It's no coincidence that the biggest plays in Alabama's biggest games have come from Young scrambling around to buy time and making something out of nothing. He simply doesn't have a lot of help. 

It's evident to anybody who has watched Alabama that the offense isn't performing at the same level, but the numbers back it up, too. Here's a look at how Alabama's offense ranked in key stats in each season since 2017:

The table below uses percentiles instead of the raw stats to give you a better idea of how Alabama's offenses compared to the rest of the country at the time. The higher the percentile, the better.

While the offense still ranks as one of the best in the country, there's a clear drop-off from the elite of the elite starting last season when OC Bill O'Brien succeeded Steve Sarkisian, who left to take the Texas job. The drop-off may not seem like much, but look at how Alabama's offense ranks over the last two seasons compared to Georgia in the table below. The Bulldogs have an elite defense, but the offense is constantly questioned because it doesn't have a future first-rounder at QB.

Numbers in table reflect national percentiles. 

Alabama has scored more points per game -- which is still the most important statistic! -- but Georgia's offense has been far more efficient. While it doesn't throw as often, it's been the more explosive passing attack with quarterback Stetson Bennett. I'm not bringing this up to make any point about those players or Georgia's offense; the point is Alabama's offense has declined over the last two seasons. Defense no longer wins championships; offense does. Saban realized it after the 2013 season and understands it today. With Young off to the NFL after this season, there will be a lot of on-field offensive personnel changes in the offseason. I'd bet on there being changes on the sideline, too.

Not-Quite-Dead Pipe Dream of the Week

The SEC has been the best conference for a long time now, but it's been just as good off the field with the propaganda (if not better). No conference does a better job of spreading the message that it's the greatest, and there was one narrative going around during the last few weeks that proved it.

Columns, radio shows and podcasts (including our own) wondered if the SEC could get three teams in the CFP this season. The basis of the question was the loser of the Tennessee-Georgia game might benefit from not having to play in the SEC Championship Game and finish the season 11-1. Then, if Alabama (because we all assumed it would be Alabama!) won the SEC title, we'd have three one-loss SEC teams (with losses to one another) that could all get in over one-loss Power Five champions from other conferences.

The SEC propaganda machine is so powerful that it's brainwashed us all into believing a loss in the SEC is more impressive than a win anywhere else. If any team from outside the SEC loses a game -- to anybody, in any fashion -- and it can't be in the playoff (hi, Clemson). But a loss to Georgia? That's not a loss, it's a medal of honor.

And the narrative wasn't put to rest this weekend, despite the results. Tennessee was smothered with a pillow by Georgia, but the SEC will push that it's still a playoff team because it only lost by 14 points, hoping that you forgot the lone Vols touchdown came in garbage time. And God help us if Ole Miss beats Alabama next weekend. The three-team SEC dream machine will crank right back up.

Banger of the Week

I don't know how many people watched it because it was played at the same time as Alabama-LSU, but did you see the game between SMU and Houston? The Mustangs beat the Cougars 77-63, setting an FBS record for the most points scored in regulation. The Mustangs scored 11 touchdowns on 13 possessions, punting once and kneeling out the final seconds of the game on the final possession. 

The two offenses combined for 1,352 yards, and SMU QB Tanner Mordecai threw for an American Athletic Conference record nine touchdowns. He also ran for a 10th. Clayton Tune, the losing QB, threw for a mere 527 yards and seven touchdowns. He also threw three interceptions, so imagine how many points Houston might've scored without the turnovers.

Punt of the Week

It was an epic weekend for punting thanks in large part to high winds throughout the country, but for my money, none were better than that beauty from Georgia's Brett Thorson. Honestly, I might've wasted all our time writing about how Alabama's offense is keeping it from competing for a national title. It's clear that what a national title contender really needs is an elite punter.

Offensive Lineman Touchdown of the Week

I swear Oregon treated its game against Colorado as a scrimmage. Not only did Ducks quarterback Bo Nix throw a touchdown to his offensive lineman, Josh Conerly, but later in the game running back Bucky Irving threw a touchdown to Nix. Oh, and linebacker Noah Sewell scored a rushing touchdown, too. 

Scramble of the Week

UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson hurdled a defender on this scramble, and it was only the cherry on top of an all-around hilarious play. Honestly, I think my favorite part was the elongated spin move at the end. You can almost pinpoint the moment when DTR thinks "let's see what other crazy stuff I can do right now."

Struggle Train of the Week

It appears the Purdue offense wasn't the only thing that had trouble dealing with the wind in West Lafayette on Saturday. The good news for Purdue is that even though it lost to Iowa, Illinois lost later in the day to Michigan State. That means the Boilermakers control their fate in the West. Win out and the Big Ten West is theirs. However, if Illinois beats Purdue in Week 11, the Illini have to lose to both Michigan and Northwestern to miss out on a trip to Indianapolis.

College Football Playoff Projection of the Week

Well, we know who will be No. 1. After that it's anybody's guess, so here's mine.

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. Michigan

Until the next Monday After!