Most people reading this column are casual sports bettors because -- let's be real -- if you were a professional, you'd have no need to read my thoughts on anything. While I consider myself a casual bettor, too, there are times in this column when I use terminology that isn't understood by everybody.
For instance, several readers want to know what I mean when I say, "The market hasn't caught on yet." Essentially, I don't think there's been a proper adjustment -- from bettors or oddsmakers -- to a team or situation. To use a real-world example, let's take a quick look at how the market has adjusted to point totals for college football games this season.
Last year, game totals decreased dramatically as the year progressed due to rule changes affecting the number of plays in games. Those changes have continued into the 2024 season. Check out how the average total for FBS games has changed from week to week.
| Week | Average Total | Points Per Game | Under Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
0+1 | 53.79 | 53.01 | 59.4% |
2 | 53.33 | 50.38 | 56.9% |
3 | 51.86 | 52.26 | 45.6% |
Unders hit 59.4% of the time in Weeks 0 and 1, but when it came to Week 2 games, the average total didn't drop much. This is likely because the sample size wasn't large enough to warrant changing the approach yet. The unders crushed again in Week 2 with similar totals, cashing in 56.9% of the time.
But Week 3? The average total dropped from 53.33 points to 51.86, and unders won only 45.6% of the time.
This is only an example. There are all sorts of factors that could've played into the results. Matchups play a significant factor as well. Still, it's an interesting look at how things change during a season, and paying attention to things like this can help you in your decision-making.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Games of the Week
No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan: This certainly feels like a "gotta have it" game for Michigan, doesn't it? Yes, the Wolverines bounced back from their loss to Texas with a win over Arkansas State (which wasn't as close as the score suggests), but their play was still poor enough on offense they felt the need to make a change at quarterback. Davis Warren is out and Alex Orji is in. How's it going to look? We'll find out together!
My suspicion is that Michigan will be even more run-heavy with Orji, particularly on his first start. The problem is I'm not sure if it's the best strategy against a USC defense that's better than last season, but isn't great. The Trojans have been better at stopping the run to this point, and for as troublesome as Michigan's offense has been, the Wolverines still rank No. 42 nationally in EPA per rush.
On the other side of things, how will Miller Moss and this offense look on the road against a good defense in a hostile environment? Moss has been great in his three starts, but this is easily the best defense he's seen yet. With so many questions about how the offenses will look, the under seems like the safest play. The Pick: Under 46.5 (-109)
No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma: One of the benefits of legal sports betting in more states across the country is it allows me to expand my options with picks in this column. It comes in handy with games where you don't feel great about a spread or total but do have some confidence in how things are likely to play out in one area! For example, I believe the Tennessee Volunteers are one of the best teams in the country. The numbers support that. However, with NC State looking pretty mediocre to start the year, there's a good argument to be made the Vols haven't been tested yet and the first true road start for Nico Iamaleava could present some problems.
This is why I'm uncomfortable betting on Tennessee as a road favorite, even if I believe it's the better team here. I am certain that Oklahoma's offensive line is not up to its usual standard. QB Jackson Arnold has done a good job of getting the ball out quickly, but the Sooners don't have many options in the passing game right now. And how much time will he have here? Regardless of opponent, Tennessee has an outstanding defensive line, led by James Pearce Jr., and it does an incredible job of getting pressure without bringing an extra body.
With Oklahoma's line struggling and the offense's inability to hit explosive plays (OU ranks 116th nationally), it's hard for me to buy into the idea the Sooners will light up the scoreboard. If they want to win, they need to muddy it up. So we're going to bet the Sooners team total. The Pick: Oklahoma Team Total Under 24.5 (-105)
Lock of the Week
Charlotte at Indiana: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I went with Indiana as my Lock of the Week at UCLA last week, and the Hoosiers crushed the Bruins. This spread is much larger, but I feel the same about the situation as I did last week. I have written about it already, but the Hoosiers are legitimately good. Probably not "win the Big Ten" or "playoff contender" good, but good enough to be in that second tier of the Big Ten. And they're certainly much better than Charlotte.
I could go through a whole host of statistics, but I'll save time and tell you if there's an offensive statistic that matters, Indiana is ranked near the top of the country and Charlotte's near the bottom. Defensively, things aren't much different. The only thing we have to worry about is Indiana taking its foot off the gas late, but Curt Cignetti doesn't strike me as a merciful coach. Plus, this team is still trying to establish itself as one that wants to be taken seriously, so I trust another message will be sent. The Pick: Indiana -28.5 (-105)
Underdog of the Week
Cal at Florida State: At some point, we need to accept that Florida State isn't a good team that's gotten off to a poor start, it's a bad team playing to its level. It's been the same mistakes every week. DJ Uiagalelei has been erratic, but the throws he's put on the money are often dropped. There isn't much push in the run game, and things aren't a whole lot better defensively.
Meanwhile, Cal has already gone on the road to beat an Auburn team that looks better than the Noles to this point, and the Bears have yet to allow more than 14 points in a game. Why anybody would want to bet on this Florida State team as a favorite boggles my mind. That's not to say they've no chance at winning, but you won't catch me betting on it. The Pick: Cal +2.5 (-108)
Under of the Week
Michigan State at Boston College: If you're into erratic QB play, boy, do I have a game for you! I created a stat called Whoopsy Daisy Rate that tracks how often a QB fumbles or throws an interception, and both of these QBs are higher than average. To be fair, Thomas Castellanos looks promising under the tutelage of Bill O'Brien at Boston College. Castellanos isn't asked to do a ton in the passing game, but he's been effective.
It's part of the reason I like the under. Boston College has run the ball 66.3% of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the country. I anticipate it'll use the run game to control the tempo and keep Michigan State's Aidan Chiles and his rocket arm off the field as much as possible. Even if it can't, the Eagles defense has been encouraging. The cherry on top is neither team moves in a hurry. Michigan State ranks 102nd in snaps per game, while Boston College is 114th. The Pick: Under 45.5 (-105)
Tigers of the Week
UCLA at No. 16 LSU: Listen, I picked on the Bruins last week with Indiana, and I'm doing it again this week. No, it is not fun to lay all these points with LSU given the defensive struggles, but UCLA's defense has been worse. The Bruins play a bend-but-don't-break style. They rank 121st in defensive success rate but are 39th in explosive play rate allowed. But if you're going to play red zone roulette, you need to get stops in the red zone. The 5.25 points they're allowing on red zone possessions ranks 113th. LSU should score at least 41 points in this game based on what I've seen from both squads, and I have a tough time envisioning a scenario where UCLA keeps up. The Pick: LSU -24 (-110)
| Bets | Last Week | Season | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 1-1 | 4-2 | 1.8 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 1-2 | -1.22 |
Overall | 4-2 | 8-10 | -3.07 |
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $2,000 in profit since its inception -- and find out.
