Not many bounces have gone our way in 2024, but we weren't the victims of luck last week (the Six Pack went 2-4). Mostly, we just whiffed. However, one question has been echoing through my brain all week.
What the hell did the Six Pack ever do to you, Eli Drinkwitz?
Last week, we took the Under 48.5 in Missouri's battle with Texas A&M. The game did not go how I thought it would -- I don't think many people expected the Aggies to hand out the kind of beatdown they delivered to the Tigers -- but it was the end of the game that blew my mind.
Trailing 41-7 with 12 seconds left, Missouri faced a fourth-and-goal from the 6-yard line. Instead of going for it and trying to score a touchdown, Drinkwitz sent out the field goal team. Blake Craig's 23-yard kick was good, and Missouri lost 41-10 instead. And our under lost.
Why he did it, we'll never be sure. Perhaps he thought the score would look better if Mizzou reached double-digits. Or maybe he hates the Six Pack. Whatever the case, I didn't appreciate it, Eli!
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Games of the Week
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon: Not only do I get the sense fans have been looking forward to this game all year, but there's part of me that feels the teams involved have felt the same way. Ohio State's been on cruise control for the most part, and while Oregon struggled early due to injuries on the offensive line, the Ducks are off to a 2-0 start in conference play despite not playing the cleanest of football.
On Saturday night, we'll get a much better read. As I break down the matchup, I have concerns for both teams. I've been impressed with Ohio State's offensive line, but it's facing a front here that's better than anything it's had to deal with so far. Also, the Ducks have the most dangerous offense that a stellar Ohio State defense has seen. Conversely, Oregon hasn't seen anything like these Buckeyes, either!
The closer I look, the more I worry about both offensive lines. Yes, Oregon's has improved as it's gotten healthier, but it's still banged up and hasn't been incredible. I also expect Ohio State's line to struggle, which will make it difficult to run the ball, and that could lead to Ohio State having to lean more on Will Howard than it'd like.
I lean toward Ohio State to win, but I don't have a confidence level high enough to lay points on the road here. The under feels like a smarter play; both offenses could struggle more than anticipated. The Pick: Under 53.5 (-108)
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma: It's a situation that isn't dissimilar to the one I just discussed in Ohio State and Oregon. The primary difference is I have no faith in the Oklahoma offense. The Sooners offensive line is a mess, and the wide receiver room is an infirmary ward. The quarterback change has helped a bit, but not enough to where I feel any level of confidence the Sooners will be able to move the ball consistently against a strong Texas defense.
On the other side, QB Quinn Ewers should be back, and that's great news for Texas. Still, he hasn't played in a few weeks, and this is a quality OU defense -- one that made things difficult for him in the first half of last year's meeting. Granted, I have a lot more faith in Texas' offensive line to perform well, but I can't help but wonder if Texas will ease Ewers back in and lean more on its rushing attack. The Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)
Lock of the Week
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU: I have no doubt the Ole Miss defense is improved this season. It has. The doubt begins to creep in on the amount of trust we can put in the incredible numbers the unit has posted so far. Have you seen the teams the Rebels have faced? What's the best offense Ole Miss has seen? Is it Wake Forest? Kentucky? South Carolina? Whichever one you want to argue, you can't dispute that the Rebels haven't faced an offense close to the one they'll face in this spot.
LSU has plenty of weapons on offense, a QB who does a good job of getting the ball to them, and an offensive line with NFL players on it, including at both tackle spots. It's a line that can neutralize Ole Miss' front better than anybody else has.
None of which is to say that Ole Miss can't light up LSU's defense. While the Tigers' defensive front is better than it gets credit for, the secondary is still a massive problem, and this is not a team you want to face with problems in your secondary. QB Jaxson Dart and company will find plenty of success, but enough to pull off the upset and cover? I'm not so sure. LSU is a difficult team to beat at home, especially at night when Tiger Stadium is going berserk. The Pick: LSU +3.5 (-110)
Over of the Week
Washington at Iowa: You didn't see this one coming, did you? I didn't either, but here we are. Listen, Iowa's offense is not good, but it's better than last year and has put points on the board against everybody not named Ohio State. Last week, the Buckeyes took away RB Kaleb Johnson and stymied the Hawkeyes. Washington hasn't been nearly as effective stopping the run, so I expect Iowa will have more success on the ground, and that'll lead to more points on the board.
The Huskies haven't been as effective away from home, but QB Will Rogers has played well and the run game has been solid. While Washington's overall red zone numbers are bad, they're skewed by a particularly bad performance against Rutgers that included missed field goals. The unit looked much better against Michigan last week. Both teams will do enough to get us past this low number. The Pick: Over 41.5 (-109)
Under of the Week
No. 10 Clemson at Wake Forest: I know the Clemson offense has exploded in recent weeks, putting up at least 40 points in three straight before scoring only 29 against Florida State last week, but I don't think we'll see that same level of play this weekend. First of all, I don't know how many points Wake will be able to score, and if Clemson doesn't need to score 40, I can see the Tigers easing their foot off the gas here.
It's an early start and Clemson's second straight road game. It's also its fourth straight week with a game, and it won't have another bye until after next week's game against Virginia. We've seen coaxh Dabo Swinney take cautious approaches in spots like this before. The Pick: Under 60.5 (-105)
Friday Night Dog of the Week
No. 16 Utah at Arizona State: We should all operate under the assumption that Cam Rising isn't going to play at this point because he almost never plays. And there's no debating that Utah is a much more dangerous team with Rising than without him. The Utes put up 38 points against Utah State with Isaac Wilson, but Utah State is one of the worst defenses in the country and has hemorrhaged points all year.
In two Big 12 games against Oklahoma State and Arizona, Utah's offense is averaging 1.19 points per possession with a 37.0% success rate. That's bad. Those numbers would rank 130th and 118th nationally, respectively. There's no way I want to trust an offense that's played that poorly as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road against an Arizona State team that's been able to score against everybody it's faced. The Pick: Arizona State +6.5 (-107)
| Bets | Last Week | Season | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 1-1 | 7-5 | +0.57 |
Lock of the Week | 0-1 | 3-3 | -0.32 |
Overall | 2-4 | 16-20 | -5.93 |
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets in Week 7 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.