The No. 13 SMU Mustangs (9-1) will try to clinch their spot in the ACC title game when they go on the road to face the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) on Saturday afternoon. SMU extended its winning streak to seven games with a 38-28 win over Boston College last week, moving one step closer to a conference championship appearance in its first season in the ACC. The Mustangs are the only program in the 17-team conference without a loss in league play, and the ACC champion earns an automatic bid into the 12-team College Football Playoff. Virginia has lost four of its last five games, including a 35-14 setback at then-No. 8 Notre Dame last week. 

Kickoff is set for noon ET on Saturday at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium. SMU is favored by 9.5 points in the latest Virginia vs. SMU odds, while the over/under is 57.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any SMU vs. Virginia picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is a strong 21-15 on all top-rated picks over the past eight weeks of this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on SMU vs. Virginia. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the UVA vs. SMU game:

  • Virginia vs. SMU spread: SMU -9.5
  • Virginia vs. SMU over/under: 57.5 points
  • Virginia vs. SMU money line: SMU -323, Virginia +256
  • Virginia vs. SMU picks: See picks here
  • Virginia vs. SMU streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why Virginia can cover

Virginia should be prepared for this game after facing three top-20 teams in the past month. The Cavaliers covered the spread as 20.5-point underdogs in their loss to then-No. 10 Clemson before beating then-No. 18 Pittsburgh as 7-point underdogs earlier this month. They narrowly failed to cover as 20.5-point underdogs against then-No. 8 Notre Dame last week, losing by 21 points. 

Backup quarterback Tony Muskett provided a spark in the second half against the Fighting Irish, scoring both of the team's touchdowns on the ground. The Cavaliers need one more win to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since the 2019 season. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games, while SMU has won three conference games by 10 points or less. See which team to pick here. 

Why SMU can cover

SMU is having an incredible season as an ACC newcomer, entering Week 13 as the only program in the 17-team conference without a league loss. The Mustangs are riding a seven-game winning streak and have won all four of their road games. They trailed Boston College early in the third quarter before erasing the deficit in a 38-28 win. 

Quarterback Kevin Jennings had 298 passing yards and three touchdowns last week, while running back Brashard Smith rushed for 120 yards and a score. Smith has gone over the 1,000-yard mark this season, providing balance for SMU's explosive offense. The Mustangs have covered the spread in five of their last seven games, and Virginia is 2-9 in its last 11 November games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Virginia vs. SMU picks

The model has simulated SMU vs. Virginia 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in more than 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Virginia vs. SMU, and which side of the spread hits more than 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the SMU vs. Virginia spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.