"He's still got a ways to go."
That's what a high-ranking NFL front office staffer said this summer about Arch Manning's 2025 tape, a common theme when speaking with NFL scouts about the Texas quarterback's future as a draft prospect.
"I think he's an eventual first-round guy, but I don't think the tape from last year says first round yet," that front office staffer told CBS Sports in June. "I view Arch right now as a developmental (NFL) starter that still has a long way to go in terms of touch and processing and seeing the field, but you expect that he's going to get it because he has all the physical tools and the wiring and the pedigree from his family and all that."
Simply put, many NFL personnel and scouting staffers want to see continued growth from Manning this season before being ready to project him as a definite to be one of the top picks in next year's NFL draft if the fourth-year junior decides to turn pro. Manning ranks as the No. 1 player on Mike Renner's Big Board at CBS Sports.
Personnel and scouting staffers saw clear growth throughout last season but there will be a lot of NFL eyeballs on Manning when Texas faces Ohio State on Saturday to see if he's now taken another step forward.
"The good's really good," an NFL college scouting director told CBS Sports. "I think he had severe issues last year with accuracy, ball placement and just anticipation all over the field, but if you just go talent for talent, like he's 1A, 1B with the best guys in the country coming out. It's just really about the nuances of the position. Sometimes he looks like he's skipping rocks. If you watch the Ohio State game (last year), he looked terrible and looked scared and timid but then towards the end of the year, he started playing better."
After the up-and-down start to the season last year, which included losses to two of Texas' first four Power Four opponents and 170 passing yards or fewer from Manning in three of those four games, the former Class of 2023 No. 1 ranked recruit did close his first season as the Longhorns' starting QB with an average of 286 passing yards in the final six games. In those six matchups, four of which were against opponents ranked in the top 20, Manning also accounted for 19 total touchdowns (14 passing and five rushing) with just two interceptions. Nobody in college football had a higher QBR than Manning after Halloween.
"I felt like earlier in the season last year, (Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian) was protecting him with his play-calling comparative with Quinn Ewers because Sark can dial it up with the best of them and I didn't think that they were doing necessarily things to open up the offense," the college scouting director said. "It seemed like it was more to protect the quarterback from himself, but that's just one man's opinion. He's a better athlete than quarterback at this point, but he's got traits to be a really good quarterback. He just needs more time on task. I mean, he played at a 2A high school, where you look at the people that they played, it was nobody. And last year was his first time really being a starter (in college). So I think it was A) Great he came back to school and B) They have a ton of talent out wide. So he has toys, he has a really good play-caller and I expect him to take a natural jump this year."
Manning is indeed off to a good start in 2026.
In two-and-a-half quarters of work during Texas' season-opening 59-7 win over Texas State, Manning threw for 305 yards with four touchdown passes and one interception. Two of the touchdown passes were to star Auburn transfer Cam Coleman, who's a possibility to go in the top 10 of next year's draft. One of the others was a jet sweep to another star junior wide receiver, Ryan Wingo, who also has a shot to go early in next year's draft. Manning hit both Wingo and Coleman on deep shots as well.
It was a nice warmup before this upcoming game against Ohio State on Saturday, a matchup that will provide NFL personnel and scouting staffers with a much better feel for Manning's readiness to be considered a clear-cut top prospect for next year's draft.
"I think he's probably just playing with a little more confidence with it being Year 2 starting for him," Texas State head coach and former NFL QB GJ Kinne told CBS Sports. "I would say that's the biggest thing I saw is he just looks more comfortable. Physically, he's as good as there is in college football.
"He's got everything. He's big. He's athletic. He's got a really strong arm. I think he's also got a couple first rounders at receiver. It kind of reminds me of when Joe Burrow had Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. He's got elite weapons around him and he's really talented."
