Buckle up, college football fans.
It's time for our weekly predictions, and we have our first narrative-setting top-5 matchup of the season Saturday night in Austin. No. 1 Ohio State's trip to fourth-ranked Texas could challenge all-time viewership records for a regular-season game, given the stakes between two title-contending programs this fall.
The Longhorns' loss to the Buckeyes last season ultimately cost Texas an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff, which drew the ire of coach Steve Sarkisian. Winless in his tenure at Texas against Georgia and Ohio State (0-5), this is a barometer matchup for Sarkisian at home, a must-win game for a leader under the microscope nationally when considering his team's overall talent level.
No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan is another appealing non-conference showdown in Week 2 for two teams entering with a considerably different feel after last weekend's results. The Sooners blanked UTEP in their quest for a CFP return while the Wolverines nearly stumbled -- perhaps should've stumbled -- against Western Michigan in Kyle Whittingham's debut.
Season results (Week 1): Brad Crawford (8-0 straight, 6-2 ATS), Chris Hummer (7-1 straight, 2-6 ATS)
Week 1 was a profitable weekend around here. I whiffed on Clemson +10.5 at LSU during a complete demolition by Lane Kiffin's squad, but I had a feeling UCLA would topple California in Bob Chesney's debut, along with Boise State covering against Oregon. The Broncos, despite the loss to the Ducks, are my new Group of Six favorite.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
No. 12 Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky
Hummer (Kentucky +10.5): I think there's a lot of value with Kentucky at that spread. To extrapolate too much from a game against Youngstown State is dangerous, but I'd point out that Penguins quarterback Beau Brungard is one of the best running signal callers in the FCS. He ran for nearly 1,500 yards last year. Kentucky held him to 29 yards and the Penguins to 2.1 yards per carry. That's what I'm watching against Alabama. Can the Tide run the ball consistently against an above-average front seven? I think Alabama does enough, but Kentucky keeps this close at home thanks to a strong defensive effort and an occasionally explosive offense. … Alabama 24, Kentucky 20.
Crawford (Kentucky +10.5): Over the summer, I laid out five reasons why first-year Kentucky coach Will Stein could be among the SEC's biggest surprises in his opening campaign for the Wildcats. What he did with Oregon's offense was magical these last few years. Here's the first opportunity at his first head job. He doesn't have to beat Alabama to pick up more believers, by the way. Simply keeping it respectable at home against the Crimson Tide will drive momentum and more heads toward Kentucky moving forward. ... Alabama 27, Kentucky 24.
No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5) at Michigan
Hummer (Oklahoma -6.5): I was on Oklahoma for this game entering the season. Now, it's almost difficult to be heavily on the Sooners, given that the line has shifted 8.5 points after the Wolverines' poor showing last week against Western Michigan. As it is, I just don't see how Michigan will generate consistent offense. The Sooners have an elite front seven, and Michigan struggled to run the ball against WMU. This will be a real test for Oklahoma's new-look offense, which now operates almost exclusively out of 12-personnel (82.8%) compared to 11-personnel a year ago (83.7%). That shift is designed to better protect John Mateer and establish a more consistent run game. It worked against UTEP. Will it work against Michigan? The Sooners do enough on offense to escape with a win. … Oklahoma 24, Michigan 17.
Crawford (Oklahoma -6.5): This point total has swelled since the Wolverines' last-gasp escape against Western Michigan, moving six points from the initial preseason line. Brent Venables has to be licking his chops looking at the film from that one as the Sooners prepare to pin their ears back and get after Bryce Underwood. Michigan will have to dirty this one up at the line of scrimmage and keep it ugly to have a shot. I'm don't have any confidence in that offense being able to move the football against a defense coming off a shutout, however. ... Oklahoma 24, Michigan 7.
Arizona State at No. 10 Texas A&M (-13.5)
Hummer (Arizona State +13.5): These are two teams with big expectations that I had big questions about entering the year. It's hard to take away much from either of their Week 1 blowouts, so I think about this game in two ways: 1. Can ASU expose a questionable Aggies offensive line? The Sun Devils generated a ton of pressure last week against Morgan State, but didn't turn those pressures into sacks (just two). That needs to change against Marcel Reed. 2. How does Cutter Boley look against a good team? He was brilliant last week (387 yards, 6 TDs), but A&M is a much different test against what should be a good-to-elite secondary. The Aggies are the better team and pull away late. … Texas A&M 34, Arizona State 21.
Crawford (Texas A&M -13.5): Cutter Boley was sensational in his debut for the Sun Devils against Morgan State, throwing for 387 yards and six touchdowns during a 70-point masterpiece. However, there may not be a quarterback in the country who sees as much variance from the pocket from Week 1 to Week 2 with Arizona State's trip to Kyle Field. It's known that I'm not high on the Aggies this season after labeling them as the most overrated team in the preseason rankings. They're going to suffer their first loss soon, but it won't happen this weekend. I like the cover here at home. ... Texas A&M 31, Arizona State 16.
Arizona at No. 15 BYU (-7.5)
Hummer (BYU -7.5): This is a rematch of arguably the best game in Big 12 play last season, which ended as a BYU win in double overtime. The Cougars dominated a lot of that game, but poor play by Bear Bachmeier (12-for-29, 172 yards, two touchdowns) held them back. I think he's a much different quarterback in Year 2. BYU brings back eight starters on defense and the core of a secondary capable of slowing the Wildcats' dangerous passing attack. BYU makes an early-season Big 12 statement and covers at home. … BYU 28, Arizona 20.
Crawford (BYU -7.5): There was enough on the game film from BYU last week to feel better about my projection of the Cougars as the 10-seed in this season's CFP. In fact, another weekend with a positive sample size -- especially against a quality league opponent -- and I might put BYU ahead of Texas Tech as the Big 12's new frontrunner. This is a dangerous game in Provo for the home team, given Noah Fifita's ability at the quarterback position for the Wildcats. One team has a notable defensive edge here, however. ... BYU 31, Arizona 17.
Arkansas at No. 20 Utah (-11.5)
Hummer (Utah -11.5): I worry for Arkansas because it only averaged three yards per carry against Central Arkansas. Sacks of course played into that total, but neither of the Razorbacks' top backs cleared the three-yard mark on average. Utah, meanwhile, is consistently among the best defenses in the Big 12. Throw in a huge home-field advantage for the Utes at night, and I like Utah to make a statement against the SEC and cover. … Utah 34, Arkansas 21.
Crawford (Utah -11.5): Politely, the Razorbacks looked closer to a 4-8 team in their debut than an 8-4 squad under Ryan Silverfield. And this Utah team remains relentless on offense, despite the loss of OC Jason Beck to Michigan. I wondered if the scheme would look different without their ace in the hole, but so far, so good from Devon Dampier and Co. We're underestimating Utah's defense as well, even after heavy personnel losses. This is a bad spot for Arkansas. ... Utah 41, Arkansas 20.
Mississippi State (-1.5) at Minnesota
Hummer (Minnesota +1.5): Get ready to learn the name Kamario Taylor. He's arguably the most freakish talent at quarterback in college football, and he wowed last week with 354 yards passing, 59 yards rushing and five total touchdowns. This is a fun matchup for Minnesota, too, which is hosting its first SEC opponent in 65 years. The Gophers are undervalued in this game. They have elite NFL talent in a few key spots -- on the offensive and defensive line -- and have a talented enough front seven to make Taylor throw to beat them. Mississippi State is probably the more talented team. But at this point in the year, give me the consistency of Minnesota and the home-field advantage that comes with it. …. Minnesota 21, Mississippi State 20.
Crawford (Mississippi State -1.5): After the SEC's perfect opening weekend, this one feels like another in the win column, considering quarterback Kamario Taylor's abilities as a dual-threat. P.J. Fleck could have something up his sleeve defensively if the Gophers can create pressure up front, but this is one of the more athletic teams Minnesota will face all season. And for the SEC vs. Big Ten arguers, this serves as another data point concerning the mid-tier of each conference. The last team with the football wins. ... Mississippi State 27, Minnesota 23.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas (-1)
Hummer (Texas -1): This is a rare toss-up for Vegas. That line indicates the Buckeyes are slightly better than the Longhorns on a neutral field, but this will be anything but a neutral environment. I'm watching two things in this game. First, how does Texas contain Jeremiah Smith? He only has 46 total yards in two games against the Longhorns. But Texas' cornerback group is mostly new, and it was the only shaky part of the defense in Week 1. A big day for Smith is bad news for Texas. On the other side of things: This is a huge test for a reworked Texas O-line. How that unit holds up -- and whether Arch Manning can avoid questionable decisions -- will determine if Texas can win this game. I think Smith has a good day, but Texas' offense moves the ball, and the Longhorns win late thanks to their incredible depth of playmakers. … Texas 24, Ohio State 21.
Crawford (Texas -1): Sticking with my pick of the Longhorns here that I've had the entire offseason. It doesn't get any bigger than this for Sarkisian, at night and under the lights in Austin with, perhaps, the best team he's had overall at the program. Manning was a deer in headlights against the Buckeyes last season, a helluva lot to ask in his first game as Texas' full-time starter. He's a seasoned vet, now, with plenty of experience against quality competition. If it doesn't happen now for the Longhorns, will it ever under Sarkisian? Hollywood Smothers sparks a big play in the run game, and the Longhorns force a turnover from Julian Sayin late to survive an instant classic. ... Texas 30, Ohio State 24.
