On paper, it's easy to see why some were shocked by Maddux Madsen beating out Malachi Nelson for the Boise State starting quarterback job. It's not every day a former three-star prospect -- the No. 1657 overall player in his recruiting class -- gets the edge over a highly-touted transfer like Nelson -- a five-star prospect out of high school who was once considered the heir apparent to Heisman winner Caleb Williams at USC.
Fifteen of the top 20 quarterbacks in the 2024 247Sports transfer rankings are expected to start immediately for their respective schools. Four others -- Jaden Rashada (Georgia), Austin Mack (Alabama), Dante Moore (Oregon) and Julian Sayin (Ohio State) -- all transferred to programs with the expectation of sitting behind entrenched starters.
Some would read Boise State coach Spencer Danielson's decision as an indictment on Nelson and cast doubt on his future with the Broncos. But according to 247Sports recruiting analyst Greg Biggins, it has more to do with Madsen's experience than any deficiencies on Nelson's part.
"It makes a lot of sense for both sides," Biggins said. "(Madsen) probably gives them the best chance to win."
Boise State's schedule is also a deciding factor. The Broncos enter the year as one of the favorites to grab the Group of Five's auto bid to the College Football Playoff. One of the biggest games on the Broncos schedule comes early against Oregon -- one of the betting favorites to win the Big Ten. While a win over the Ducks isn't essential for the Broncos' playoff hopes, Boise needs a good showing at the very least to make an impression on the playoff committee. Oregon (No. 3) is the only team ranked in the AP top 25 on the Broncos' schedule.
Madsen appeared in nine games last season, throwing for 1,191 yards and nine touchdowns and rushing for another two scores. That experience will come in handy against what will easily be the most talented defense the Broncos see this season.
"Oregon to me is a top-five team nationally with one of the top pass rushes in the country," Biggins said. "I don't know if you want to throw Malachi Nelson in that right now. He hasn't played a lot of college football, and Oregon is fierce."
Biggins has covered Nelson since he first popped up on the radar as a promising high school prospect out of Los Alamitos, California. He says Nelson is still in good spirits after the announcement and there is belief inside the program that he could see the field later in the season. Boise State gets a bye the week after playing Oregon, which could give the Broncos an opportunity to reevaluate their quarterback situation -- or at least find ways to get Nelson some meaningful snaps.
"I wouldn't rule out by Week 3, 4 or 5, you might see Malachi Nelson in there and playing some serious football," Biggins said. "I talked to someone very close to Malachi and I know there has been talk is he going to transfer again? Malachi is very happy at Boise State. He likes the staff, he likes the offense and it's a good fit for him. He is there and ready to compete. This is not an issue for him not starting Week 1. It's a long-term play."
