The Reds realized last year that they weren't equipped to compete in a division that ultimately had three 97-game winners, so they, like so many of their NL brethren, took their first steps toward beating juggernauts like the Cubs at their own game.
That is, stockpiling young, cost-controlled talent -- or "rebuilding," as it's more familiarly known.
It's all the rage these days, what with the success of the Cubs and Astros. But as with any other strategy, not every team is going to be as good at it.
Consider the Reds' two biggest moves this offseason. They managed to trade their second-biggest star, Todd Frazier, but in a three-team deal where somehow the Dodgers ended up with the better package of prospects. And they didn't make out much better in the Aroldis Chapman deal, landing none of what Baseball America considered to be the Yankees' top five prospects.
They would have been better off waiting for a ruling on Chapman's domestic abuse case before trading him. They're waiting to move Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips for other reasons, hoping the former (a possible victim of infield shifts) can prove he's not just a .220 hitter and the latter (a notable regression candidate at age 34) can be convinced to waive his no-trade clause.
The two Reds least likely to be on the move are also the two most likely to be drafted first in Fantasy. Joey Votto had a big comeback year and may even sneak into the first round in some drafts. Devin Mesoraco, who was considered an elite catcher at this time a year ago, is hoping for a resurgence of his own after losing a year to hip surgery. Billy Hamilton and Eugenio Suarez are also fixtures, though at this point, what you see may be what you get from Hamilton. His steals are hard to pass up in a Rotisserie league, but you're sacrificing everywhere else. The power-hitting Suarez, who takes over for Frazier at third base, retains his shortstop eligibility from a year ago.
As far as rebuilding goes, the Reds are further along on the pitching side of the equation, having acquired two of their immediate rotation options, John Lamb and Brandon Finnegan, and one of their eventual ones, Cody Reed, in the Johnny Cueto trade last July. All three have big strikeout potential, yet none have quite the upside of top prospect Robert Stephenson. Raisel Iglesias and Anthony DeSclafani look like keepers as well and are more likely to be drafted in standard mixed leagues.
As for the bullpen, Chapman's spot is up for grabs, with J.J. Hoover the leading candidate, but Jumbo Diaz and one-time Fantasy darling Tony Cingrani are also in the mix.
2016 projected lineup
1. Billy Hamilton, CF
2. Brandon Phillips, 2B
3. Joey Votto, 1B
4. Devin Mesoraco, C
5. Jay Bruce, RF
6. Eugenio Suarez, 3B
7. Zack Cozart, SS
8. Scott Schebler, LF
Bench: Adam Duvall 1B/OF
Bench: Yorman Rodriguez, OF
Bench: Ivan De Jesus, IF/OF
2016 projected rotation
1. Raisel Iglesias, RHP
2. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP
3. John Lamb, LHP
4. Michael Lorenzen, RHP
5. Brandon Finnegan, LHP
Alt: Keyvius Sampson, RHP
DL: Homer Bailey, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. J.J. Hoover, RHP
2. Jumbo Diaz, RHP
3. Tony Cingrani, LHP
4. Pedro Villarreal, RHP
5. Ryan Mattheus, RHP
Like most Cuban defectors, Iglesias needed an adjustment period. Unlike most, his came for an out-of-contention, small-market team, so the turnaround didn't make national headlines. Here's the lowdown: Over his final nine starts, he had a 3.13 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He had three straight starts with double-digit strikeouts at one point, making him one of just seven pitchers to achieve that feat, and the others -- with the exception of Rich Hill, another sleeper -- are the kind you'd be drafting in Rounds 3 and 4. Iglesias' walk rate is nearly as impressive as his strikeout rate, and for pitching half his games at a hitter's park, he does an OK job keeping the ball in the park. Pitchers who excel in those three areas generally deliver low ERAs -- it's the whole basis for FIP -- so if he picks up where he left off, he's a middle-round bargain.
Phillips reversed two longstanding trends last year: He had 23 stolen bases, giving him more than 20 for the first time in six years, and he gained 45 points on his OPS after gradually losing them over the previous three years. If he was still in the prime of his career, maybe those gains would deserve further examination, but he's 34. That's old, particularly by middle infield standards, and prior to last year, Phillips had given us every reason to believe he was well into his decline. The danger is in assuming he isn't because of one outlier season. Jimmy Rollins had such a season, also well into his decline, in 2014, and we all know how he followed it up last year. If you're hurting for batting average or steals late, Phillips isn't the worst flier you could take, but you don't want to find yourself in that situation or, worse, reach for him earlier.
Back in 2011, John Lamb was considered the best pitching prospect in a deep Royals system and one of the best in all of baseball. He then had Tommy John surgery and struggled to regain his velocity in the years that followed, dropping his stock considerably. But last year, the velocity was back, and the high strikeout rate -- 9.5 per nine innings, to be exact -- returned with it. Yet he remained under the radar for some reason. The Reds obviously saw value in him, acquiring him in the Johnny Cueto deal, and when they installed him in their major-league rotation, sure enough, he continued to pile up strikeouts, recording 10.5 per nine innings. He probably won't deliver a sub-3.50 ERA with all the home runs he figures to allow at Great American Ballpark, but at a point when you'd be drafting Charlie Morton or Jonathon Niese instead, he clearly stands out for his upside.
Prospects report
Lamb technically qualifies as a prospect still, but he's far from the best the Reds system has to offer. It's especially deep in arms, with Robert Stephenson having long tantalized Fantasy owners with his potential. He'd be safer without the recurring control issues, but his upside makes him a must in long-term keeper leagues, especially since his debut should finally come this year.
Cody Reed and Amir Garrett are the two other pitchers more talented than anyone in the Reds' current starting five, with the possible exception of Raisel Iglesias, but they're not as familiar to Fantasy owners. Reed, who also came over in the Johnny Cueto trade last year, has a devastating fastball-slider combo that could make him big a strikeout pitcher in time. Garrett, who played basketball for St. John's, finally began to translate his raw stuff into numbers at high Class A, though he was old for the level.
Jose Peraza was the one notable prospect the Reds got back in the Todd Fraizer deal, but he even he has his flaws. No doubt, he's ready to take over at second base whenever the Reds find a taker for Brandon Phillips, but neither the Braves nor Dodgers were confident he'd contribute enough offensively, which is why he's with his third organization in a year. He can run, though, so he'll matter in Rotisserie leagues.
Jesse Winker, the best bat in the system, is about ready to step in for Jay Bruce. The potential OPS monster rebounded from a slow start to hit .316 with 10 home runs and .426 on-base percentage over his final 225 at-bats.
