The Athletics never truly rebuild, but they had to know they'd take their lumps last year after trading away Josh Donaldson and Jeff Samardzija in the offseason. Granted, it was necessary after going all-in on 2014. A small-market team can't survive without a farm system.
Take their lumps they did, eventually resigning to their fate and shipping Scott Kazmir, Ben Zobrist and Tyler Clippard out as well. It wasn't all bad news, though. The openings allowed some less-heralded players a chance to strut their stuff, and some of them proved worthy of everyday duty.
Between Stephen Vogt emerging as an All-Star catcher, Josh Reddick becoming a more complete hitter, Billy Burns ably filling Coco Crisp's shoes, Danny Valencia and Mark Canha providing right-handed pop and Marcus Semien streaking his way to Fantasy relevance while refining his defensive game, the Athletics have assembled a ragtag bunch of misfits aching to overachieve.
And they spent much of the offseason adding to their number with players like Rich Hill, Jed Lowrie and Yonder Alonso.
The most interesting of those three is Hill, who's also the lone pitcher of the bunch, and it's the same deal on that side of the equation. Even the Athletics' one star player, ace Sonny Gray, isn't a true ace in Fantasy terms, lacking the strikeout potential of a Max Scherzer or even a Madison Bumgarner, but after delivering almost identical numbers in back-to-back seasons, he does at least have reliability going for him. None of their other four projected starters threw even 120 innings last season.
But that only makes for potential sleepers in Fantasy. Jesse Hahn and Chris Bassitt were looking like viable contributors before suffering injuries, and Kendall Graveman, for all his struggles last year, still has one of the game's best sinkers. In AL-only leagues especially, those three will be trendy choices in the middle-to-late rounds.
Even the Athletics bullpen presents an opportunity for value, with Sean Doolittle set to reclaim the closer role after missing most of last season with a partially torn rotator cuff. He had an 89-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in relief two years ago and could emerge as a top-flight Fantasy option even closing for a bad team.
Which isn't to say the 2016 Athletics are a bad team. They're hard to figure given all the unknowns, but they have a long history of making something out of nothing, and in perhaps the most evenly matched division in baseball, they might just catch everyone by surprise again.
2016 projected lineup
1. Billy Burns, CF
2. Jed Lowrie, 2B
3. Josh Reddick, RF
4. Danny Valencia, 3B
5. Stephen Vogt, C
6. Billy Butler, DH
7. Yonder Alonso, 1B
8. Marcus Semien, SS
9. Coco Crisp, LF
Bench: Mark Canha, 1B/OF
Bench: Josh Phegley, C
2016 projected rotation
1. Sonny Gray, RHP
2. Rich Hill, LHP
3. Jesse Hahn, RHP
4. Kendall Graveman, RHP
5. Chris Bassitt, RHP
Alt: Sean Nolin, LHP
DL: Henderson Alvarez, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. Sean Doolittle, LHP
2. Ryan Madson, RHP
3. Liam Hendriks, RHP
4. John Axford, RHP
5. Fernando Rodriguez, RHP
Only seven starting pitchers recorded double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back-to-back starts last year. Hill was one of them, and he made four starts total. Sample size is paramount to number crunchers everywhere, but the lack of it was the Athletics' market inefficiency this time. They were so impressed by what Hill did last September that they paid him $6 million to see if he can do it again. He's not completely without track record. He just hasn't been Fantasy relevant since 2007, when his wicked curveball helped him record nearly a strikeout per inning with a respectable ERA and WHIP for the Cubs. His control abandoned him thereafter, which may or many not have had to do with a bad elbow ligament that he finally got replaced in 2011, but only last year did he get a chance to start in the majors again. Take a page from the Athletics' book: For the price, why not?
In terms of pure numbers, I like Vogt and think he's being evaluated fairly, but I'm discouraged by the way he ended last season. He was really bad, batting .215 with a .620 OPS over the final three months, which you could blame on a series of nagging injuries that a gamer like him was too willing to brush off. That excuse is wearing thin, though, after a second straight midseason collapse, and Vogt was reluctant to use it when I talked to him at the All-Star game last year, instead saying it was a confidence issue. Either way, he's a post-prime 31-year-old with questionable home run power playing in an extreme pitcher's park -- a mountain of risk for a marginal reward. In a one-catcher league, he may go too late for it to matter, but in a two-catcher league, you can get similar production from Miguel Montero without the heavy premium.
Because each team requires only one third baseman in most Fantasy formats, a player like Valencia is liable to slip through the cracks, passed over for legacy picks and recently graduated prospects. But the 31-year-old not-so-recently-graduated prospect need only pick up where he left off last year to become the one third baseman a Fantasy team needs. He was legitimately that good in limited exposure last season, homering 11 times in 183 at-bats as a full-timer for the Athletics. His 3.55 Head-to-Head points per game during that stretch would have ranked third among third basemen, behind only Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado. Now obviously, a two-month stretch isn't the most convincing sample, particularly not from a longtime journeyman, but Valencia has been a productive reserve for a while now and maybe didn't get a fair shake. The Athletics didn't bother to make any contingency plans this offseason, so clearly they're all-in.
Prospects report
Though the Athletics haven't been shy about trading their prospects in recent years, their minor-league system is still deep in potential Fantasy contributors. Only two are especially high-end, though.
• Franklin Barreto is the best of the bunch. He should eventually give the Athletics their best shortstop since Miguel Tejada and profiles similarly offensively, but at 19, he's a couple years away.
• Sean Manaea has big strikeout potential but also some injury concerns that allowed the Athletics to swipe him from the Royals for rental Ben Zobrist last July. He could join Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation as early as this summer.
• Matt Olson is a Moneyball throwback who contributes mainly walks and home runs. The Athletics' latest efforts to develop those types haven't gone so well, though, and Olson's big drop in homers after leaving the California league last year is concerning.
• Jacob Nottingham, who the Athletics acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade last season, is an offensive-minded catcher who needs to graduate to Double-A before we can assess his long-term viability, but so far, so good.
Renato Nunez and Chad Pinder are closer than any of those four to reaching the big leagues, having hit for power in the upper minors, but they're both swing-at-everything types who may be nothing more than reserves at the highest level. The best thing they have going for them is that they play third base and shortstop, respectively.
