After ending their 20-year playoff drought just three short years ago, the Pirates have come to expect success. Their 98 wins last year were second only to the division rival Cardinals even though they got only one playoff game to show for it.
Now, though, they're having to retool a bit. As valuable as homegrown players are, they don't stay cheap forever, and so the budget-conscious Pirates had to jettison two on the verge of free agency, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez. Granted, they weren't the most instrumental two, but their intended replacements, Josh Harrison and John Jaso, aren't exactly first-division regulars.
Of course, the Pirates do still have a strong nucleus in place with Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte, both early-rounders in Fantasy, and their third outfielder, Gregory Polanco, could emerge as something similar. Jung Ho Kang should also lengthen the lineup, offering some pop, but he's still recovering from a broken tibia and torn meniscus suffered last year and won't be ready out of the gate.
The Pirates' biggest losses, then, are to their starting rotation, where they'll have three fresh faces in 2016. It's telling, though, that the most concerning departure is J.A. Happ, who was basically a nobody before joining the Pirates for the stretch run last season. They made him and in fact have a history of making pitchers through the efforts of pitching coach Ray Searage. So while Jonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong were essentially lost causes with their old organizations, they have some modest sleeper appeal just because of where they wound up. It's not like the bar is particularly high. The other two departures, A.J. Burnett and Charlie Morton, weren't vying for All-Star spots or anything.
And of course, the Pirates still have burgeoning ace Gerrit Cole and strikeout artist Francisco Liriano, who are the type of pitchers you'd expect to see atop a contender's rotation even if the latter isn't always working at peak efficiency. Again, the nucleus is intact. But while the Cubs and Cardinals made moves to better themselves this offseason, the Pirates' efforts to patch holes on the cheap may result in a down year for them.
2016 projected lineup
1. Gregory Polanco, RF
2. Josh Harrison, 3B
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF
4. Starling Marte, LF
5. John Jaso, 1B
6. Francisco Cervelli, C
7. Alen Hanson, 2B
8. Jordy Mercer, SS
Bench: Michael Morse, 1B/OF
Bench: Sean Rodriguez, IF/OF
DL: Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS
2016 projected rotation
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Jon Niese, LHP
4. Jeff Locke, LHP
5. Ryan Vogelsong, RHP
Alt: Tyler Glasnow, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. Mark Melancon, RHP
2. Tony Watson, LHP
3. Neftali Feliz, RHP
4. Arquimedes Caminero, RHP
5. Jared Hughes, RHP
For much of the second half last year, Polanco looked like a textbook case of the former prospect struggling to find his way in his sophomore season only to turn the corner halfway through, hitting .314 with an .854 OPS in his first 40 games after the All-Star break. But then came the season's final month, when he hit only .224, leaving him with a less-than-impressive .276 batting average and .749 OPS for the second half. Not so clear-cut. But for him, a big-picture view may be more appropriate than the nitty-gritty. He struck out only every fifth at-bat and hit the ball to all fields. He won't turn 25 until late this season, so it's still reasonable to think more of those 35 doubles will clear the fence down the road. I anticipate Charlie Blackmon-like production eventually and would be willing to make Polanco my third outfielder in case eventually is now.
Because he'll be sidelined for the first month or so by the same gruesome leg injury that ended his rookie season, most Fantasy owners will view Kang as headache they don't need, especially since they don't have those fond memories of him leading them to a Fantasy championship. But overlooked in the concern is what a success his transition from Korea was, paving the way for others like Byung Ho Park and Hyun Soo Kim this year. The final numbers don't even do it justice. If you're willing to grant Kang a transition period, then you'll be happy to know that he hit .316 with a .926 OPS over his final 209 at-bats -- or roughly half of his season total. The highest OPS among shortstop-eligible players last year was Carlos Correa's .857 mark, and he's going in the first round. Even sacrificing a month, Kang eight rounds later could be a steal.
You saw that starting rotation, right? It's not anyone's idea of playoff-caliber, and yet we know the Pirates have postseason aspirations. That leaves us with two possibilities: They either have come to expect miracles from pitching guru Ray Searge or think their top pitching prospect is on the verge. Glasnow has ace potential; that much is certain. At 6-feet-8, he has the same advantage Randy Johnson did, using length to make his 98-mph fastball appear even faster. Between that and his power curveball, he's darn near unhittable and has gotten his walk rate down to something close to respectable. Is he ready for a big-league workload, though? Perhaps not, and the Pirates may want to hold off until midseason to save a year of arbitration anyway. But he's the type of prospect worth stashing weeks in advance.
Prospects report
The Pirates have managed to keep their farm system well stocked even as a small-market contender and have several notables apart from Glasnow on the verge of contributing now.
• Jameson Taillon has missed the last two seasons (one for Tommy John surgery and one for a sports hernia), which is why he's behind Glasnow on the organizational depth chart. But he was still the first player drafted after Bryce Harper in 2010 and appeared to be on the verge before his string of bad luck.
• Josh Bell looked like he might get a crack at the starting first base job before the Pirates signed John Jaso, and still may take over this summer. He can hit but has yet to show the power scouts promised.
• Austin Meadows, the ninth overall pick in the 2013 draft, has come up a little short in the power department as well but is still only 20 and looks like a skilled enough hitter to contribute this year if the Pirates are ever short on outfielders.
• Alen Hanson could be the one to fill in for Kang the first month (with Harrison shifting over to third base), but has fallen on hard times in the upper minors and now profiles as more of a utility infielder.
