The Nationals overcame a sluggish start to the 2015 season, and by July, it looked like they were on their way to fulfilling the sky-high expectations many had for them. After all, they added Max Scherzer to an already-potent rotation, and they were returning one of the National League's most prolific offenses largely intact.
Instead of carrying their midseason momentum towards a playoff berth, the Nationals finished with a 35-40 record in the second half, winding up seven games behind the NL East-leading Mets. This happened even though Bryce Harper emerged as the best hitter in the majors and Scherzer had his best season to date. It didn't help that Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Denard Span and Jayson Werth suffered through injury-plagued seasons, and Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos didn't produce as expected.
Also, the dream rotation of Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister was merely good instead of great. The same could be said of the bullpen, which will be better remembered by the late season drama centered around imported closer Jonathan Papelbon than by its achievements.
Span, Desmond, Zimmermann and Fister all became free agents, and former closer Drew Storen and infielder Yunel Escobar were dealt, but for all of the subtractions, the highest-profile addition may have been in the manager's office. Matt Williams, who shouldered much of the blame for the Nationals' failure to reach the postseason, was replaced by Dusty Baker, who will try to replicate the successes he had with the Giants, Cubs and Reds.
There are new faces on the field as well -- namely Daniel Murphy and Ben Revere, both of whom should find plenty of homes on mixed league Fantasy rosters. Tanner Roark and Joe Ross aren't new to the rotation, but they will replace Zimmermann and Fister after spending last season on the fringes of a secure starting role.
Despite last season's shortcomings, the Nationals will again bear the burden of high expectations. With the possible exception of Scherzer, there is probably not a Fantasy-relevant player on the roster who doesn't come with big questions about their ability to live up to their potential. That includes Harper, who in many leagues will have to justify his owner's decision to use the first overall pick on him.
2016 projected lineup
1. Ben Revere, CF
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B
3. Bryce Harper, RF
4. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B
5. Daniel Murphy, 2B
6. Jayson Werth, LF
7. Wilson Ramos, C
8. Danny Espinosa, SS
BENCH: Clint Robinson, 1B/OF
BENCH: Stephen Drew, 2B
BENCH: Michael Taylor, OF
2016 projected rotation
1. Max Scherzer, RHP
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP
3. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
4. Tanner Roark, RHP
5. Joe Ross, RHP
ALT: A.J. Cole, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
2. Shawn Kelley, RHP
3. Blake Treinen, RHP
4. Oliver Perez, LHP
5. Trevor Gott, RHP
As a 27-year-old who has had his fair share of accomplishments, Stephen Strasburg is not your typical breakout candidate. However, he has yet to live up to the hype that accompanied him when he came up with the Nationals five and a half years ago. That could change in 2016, at least if Strasburg can carry over the improvements he made late last season. After pitching his way to a 6.55 ERA through late May, Strasburg only made three more starts over the next two months, as he made two trips to the disabled list for neck, back and oblique issues. When he returned, he started to locate his pitches more towards the outside part of the zone, and his results improved dramatically.
Because Strasburg has been plagued by health issues and inconsistency, owners should not draft him until after Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta come off the board. If he can keep up what he started over the final two months of 2015, he could surpass all four aces in Fantasy value. If that sounds outrageous, bear in mind that Strasburg posted the lowest xFIP (1.95) of any pitcher with at least 60 innings in the second half.
The injury concerns that followed Anthony Rendon to the majors when he debuted in 2013 finally became a reality in 2015. Rendon missed roughly half the season with a sprained MCL and a strained oblique, but his troubles extended beyond his missed time. His home run power evaporated, as did his prowess as a base stealer, as Rendon made only three attempts, two of which were unsuccessful. Rendon hit flyballs nearly as far on average as he did the year before, but his 21-homer output from 2014 was a little suspect. According to ESPN's Home Run Tracker, 12 of those home runs had "just enough" distance to clear the fence. Just maybe Rendon's pedestrian numbers from last season weren't merely a by-product of him being banged up.
Generally speaking, even deep-league Fantasy owners don't go out of their way to draft bench players. Occasionally, it can be a savvy move to lock up a player who has a shot to play a bigger role due to versatility or opportunities presented by injury-prone starters. Clint Robinson fits both descriptions. He can play first base plus either outfield corner, and he is the first line of defense should Zimmerman get hurt. That could mean substantial playing time for Robinson, and last season, he showed that he can be more than productive enough for deeper points and OBP leagues.
Prospects report
The Nationals took a gamble by making Lucas Giolito -- already a veteran of Tommy John surgery -- their top pick in the 2012 draft, and it appears that gamble is about to pay off. Giolito cruised through the lower minors and did a creditable job in eight Double-A starts last year. It would be an upset if he wasn't promoted to the majors by midseason, and he is worth stashing in deeper leagues until he is recalled.
While Giolito is the Nationals' top pitching prospect, A.J. Cole is probably the closest to being major league-ready, having already thrown 168 2/3 innings in Triple-A. Cole doesn't have sufficient upside to be targeted in redraft leagues on Draft Day, but he will be worth a waiver claim in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues if promoted. As a control pitcher with flyball tendencies, he should fare well in his home starts at Nationals Park.
Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo both made cameos with the Nationals last season, and many thought Turner would be in line to succeed Desmond as the starting shortstop on opening day. It doesn't appear that will happen, but with a good start at Triple-A, he could conceivably supplant Danny Espinosa at any time. Difo won't likely make a Fantasy impact in 2016, but he is worth stashing in dynasty formats as a potential future steals source.
As an 18-year-old whose highest level is Short-Season Class A, Victor Robles is a long way from the majors, but he is looking like the Nationals' center fielder of the future. In 108 minor league games, Robles has batted .334 with 46 stolen bases in 60 attempts. He has also shown moderate power with seven home runs, 25 doubles and nine triples in 395 at-bats. Robles is a must-own outfielder in dynasty formats.
