2024 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Head-to-Head (H2H) categories format sees closers fly off the board faster

One certainty of mock draft season is that just when you think you've learned all the beats and can anticipate what's coming, the script changes on you.

That's how I felt during our latest mock, which happened to be our first for the Head-to-Head categories format. We try to stick to standard Yahoo settings for this format, it being the platform where Head-to-Head categories leagues are most popular, which means, among other things, daily lineup changes.

Head-to-Head categories leagues already favor relievers since dividing the season into smaller, week-long periods gives them a better chance of hanging with starting pitchers in strikeouts while potentially dominating in ERA and WHIP. Add daily lineup changes and the opportunity to rotate in fresh relievers whenever a starting pitcher has an off day, and their utility is that much greater. A weekly minimum of 25 innings helps to curtail the issue, but only to a small degree.

The closer scene is remarkably stable heading into 2024, with all but a handful of teams having a clear favorite for saves and little risk of a committee. It's a luxury we're unaccustomed to, and yet my early drafting experienced seemed to indicate that everyone was on board with it, allowing high-end closers to slip several rounds beyond where we might have seen them go in past years. But that wasn't the case in this draft. Blake Meyer took both Josh Hader and Devin Williams at the Round 3-4 turn, which led to Edwin Diaz going a pick later and Jhoan Duran (who isn't even the clear next-best choice) right behind him.

Things cooled down from there, but the early run shifted the entire relief pitcher market, such that Round 9 (Paul Sewald) was the absolute longest I could justify waiting for one, and by Round 13, Tanner Scott and Kenley Jansen had gone off the board. Setup men like Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu eventually got in on the action, presumably as ERA and WHIP help.

There's more to say about this draft than where the relievers went, of course, but let's get the introductions out of the way first. Here's who all took part:

1) Blake Meyer, FantasyPros (@Buhhlockaye)
2) Ryan McLaughlin, Ryan and Mike Love Pitching (@2BaeballDorks)
3) Michael Polidoro, The Can-Am Super Show (@CanAmSuperShow)
4) Ariel Cohen, Beat the Shift Podcast (@ATCNY)
5) Nick Mimikos, Faceoff Sports Network (@NMimi)
6) Jake Holland, The Toss Up podcast (@jakebaseball17)
7) Jake Wiener, Prospects1500 (@GatorSosa)
8) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company
9) Nick Francis, Nick's Picks (@nicksMLBpicks)
10) JR Fenton, TGFBI participant (@JohnRussell215)
11) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
12) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)

A few observations:

• The starting pitchers also went off the board earlier than I was accustomed to. While standard Yahoo lineups have a second utility spot to fill, there's no corner or middle infield spot and only three outfield spots. The urgency to fill out that side of the lineup isn't as great, which presented an opportunity to luxuriate on pitching. Normally, if I'm picking around the 3-4 turn, as I did in this draft, I'm probably taking my first pitcher there, but not with Jose Altuve and Gunnar Henderson still available. Unfortunately, this led to me settling for Kodai Senga as my ace, and while I did draft four of my top 35 starting pitchers, as is a stated goal of mine, it's not the most imposing foursome
  
• I'm quite pleased, however, with the balance I achieved in the five hitting categories, which is noteworthy since none of my top four picks -- Freddie Freeman, Yordan Alvarez, Altuve and Henderson -- is a surefire 20-steal guy. Three are potential 15-steal guys, though, and I went on to draft more prolific base-stealers like Joshua Lowe, Jackson Chourio, Bryson Stott. The urgency in that category just isn't what it used to be. Meanwhile, my first four picks gave me a sturdy foundation in batting average, which is harder to make up for later.
  
• I think Ariel Cohen deserves special distinction here for beginning his draft in a less-than-conventional way, most obviously by taking Spencer Strider at Pick 4, but then following it up with Michael Harris in Round 2. He was also the one who joined in the early closer run with Jhoan Duran in Round 5. Ariel is a terrific Fantasy player and analyst, and it's always notable when someone with his reputation goes his own way like that. I have no specific complaints about Strider and Duran, other than that I think other needs are more pressing at those stages of the draft, but I do worry about Harris' run and RBI potential relative to other hitters going in that same range.
  
• This draft happened to occur on the same day that much of Fantasy Baseball Twitter was reacting to the likelihood of Walker Buehler being left off the Dodgers' opening day roster, for inning preservation reasons. He still went 109th overall, which would indicate no change to his draft status, but I think once this possibility becomes more widely known, he could drop by as much as 50 spots.
• This draft was also our first since Colt Keith signed a six-year deal with the Tigers, likely ensuring he'll be their starting second baseman. He's eligible at third base for now, and was drafted just after Junior Caminero in round 19. I like Caminero quite a bit more, but I'd be more inclined to say he went too late rather than Keith going to early.