2025 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: First look at Head-to-Head (H2H) points shows Paul Skenes going in Round 1

A little over a month ago, we held our first mock draft for 2025, and some of the picks were straight-up bananas.

It could be that I'm the problem. After all, much of the early ADP data on NFBC also has me scratching my head. So, while some of the picks in this latest mock, our second for 2025, raised an eyebrow for me, I'm choosing instead to focus on the ones that were inspired by the scoring format, in this case, Head-to-Head points.

For instance, Juan Soto was the second overall pick in this draft when he often goes outside the top five in Rotisserie. It's less a response to his record-setting agreement with the Mets (not that I'd say he loses value with that move) and more a response to a format that rewards walks and penalizes strikeouts for hitters. Soto deserves special distinction in such a format, having walked (129) more than he struck out (119) for a fifth consecutive season, which is a rare feat for any hitter but particularly one with first-round credentials. Head-to-Head points participants also aren't so concerned with Soto's lack of stolen bases. The stat still has value in this format, but it's not essential like in Rotisserie.

Of course, these appeals to format can sometimes go too far, which I think is what happened with Bobby Witt sliding to sixth. Witt, the consensus No. 2 overall pick, derives much of his value from stolen bases and is a middling walker at best, so the prevailing belief is that he loses value in Head-to-Head points leagues. But again, stolen bases are still worth something in this format, and for what Witt lacks in walks, he makes up for in strikeout avoidance, whiffing just 15 percent of the time this past season. In fact, his 4.16 Head-to-Head points per game were the third-most for any hitter -- more than Soto, notably. It's why I was thrilled to take Witt with my first-round pick, and even seeing Corey Seager last to the middle of Round 5 didn't change that. Thank goodness for utility spots, right?

Head-to-Head points is also known as a format that favors starting pitchers, and while I think that's an oversimplification and applies only up to a certain point, I wasn't surprised to see one taken in Round 1. It being Paul Skenes was a mild surprise, though. Given that he just delivered a 1.96 ERA as a rookie, his upside may well be the highest of any pitcher, but he has yet to prove he can take on the sort of ace workload that we should know better than to presume in the year 2024, which concerns me all the more in a Head-to-Head points league where innings are worth three points apiece. Such a format tends to reward volume over efficiency in general, but especially on the pitching side.

Finally, there's the emphasis on SPARPs in Head-to-Head points leagues, which is to say starting pitchers as relief pitchers, which is to say relief pitcher-eligible starting pitchers. The good ones tend to outscore even the best closers, so many of us saw fit to speculate over who might inhabit such a role. Confirmed SPARPs Nick Martinez, Bowden Francis, Clay Holmes, and Kris Bubic went 124th, 137th, 174th, and 245th, respectively. Meanwhile, relief pitchers rumored to be moving into a starting role include Jeff Hoffman (200), Griffin Jax (214), Mike Soroka (227), and Drew Rasmussen (231).

Here's who all took part in this draft:

1) Nick Fox, NBC Sports (@CT_FOX)
2) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company
3) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
4) B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)
5) Dave Funnell, Prospects1500 (@sportz_nutt51)
6) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
7) Joe Schubert, It's The Bigs podcast (@itsthebigspod)
8) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
9) JR Fenton, TGFBI participant
10) Jeremy Heist, Fantistics Fantasy (@heistjm)
11) Chris Mitchell, FantasyData (@CJMitch73)
12) The Fantasy Gospel (@fantasy_gospel)

Just a few more observations before we get to the results:

• You'll notice I didn't select a starting pitcher until Round 7, which might seem particularly strange in a format that's known to favor pitching, but the position is staggeringly deep right now, with only superficial distinctions to be found between 15 and, say, 50 in my rankings. I aim to load up on that group once I'm convinced the stud bats are all gone. You can judge for yourself whether my pitching staff looks like a competitive one, but I plan to stick with the approach.
• Closers tend to be afterthoughts in Head-to-Head points leagues since every team has only two relief pitcher spots to fill, and some of those are occupied by SPARPs. Ryan Helsley clearly went too early at Pick 35. The next closer (Emmanuel Clase) didn't go off the board until Pick 88, and stud closers were available for several more rounds still. Shoot, Devin Williams lasted until Pick 125.
• For the second time in as many of our mock drafts, Junior Caminero went about 40 picks ahead of his ADP, this time settling at 61, a spot ahead of format specialist Alex Bregman and several rounds ahead of Jordan Westburg, Royce Lewis, and Matt Chapman. I like Caminero so much that I recorded a song about it, but I also believe in safeguarding against downside for unproven players. I simply won't be drafting him at that cost, so let's hope it's a CBS-specific fluke.
• This draft marked the first where I saw Caleb Durbin go off the board. The 24-year-old is a contender for the Yankees second base job, with Gleyber Torres hitting the open market and had a big showing in the Arizona Fall League despite lacking in prospect pedigree. I can see the sleeper appeal, but I can't see taking him 180th overall, much less ahead of Carlos Correa, who averaged nearly as many points per game as Trea Turner last year.
• Other players who struck me as being drafted too early include Matt Olson (20), Jacob deGrom (36), Spencer Steer (47), Kevin Gausman (83), Brice Turang (86), Kutter Crawford (144) and Mitch Keller (145).

(Note that certain players' team designations aren't quite up to date, a product of the draft results populating automatically. It's still the offseason, after all, so not all gears are turning with their usual speed.)