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USATSI

For the first 11 starts of the season, Jesus Luzardo looked like a potential league-winning pick. He wasn't just good for a late-round pick, he looked like one of the absolute best pitchers in baseball, sporting a 2.15 ERA and three different double-digit strikeout efforts, giving him 77 strikeouts, the seventh-most in the league through May 25. 

Two starts later, his ERA is up to 4.46 and he's managed to either erase all the good he did for your season-long stats or almost singlehandedly cost you your matchup in the past two weeks. Thursday against the Blue Jays wasn't quite as bad as his previous outing, but eight runs in 2.1 innings is hardly good, even if it's not quite as bad as 12 runs in 3.1 innings.

But you know what's weird about Luzardo's performance Thursday? It doesn't seem unfixable. 

Now, don't get me wrong: He was awful. His command was terrible, especially with his slider and sweeper, neither of which went where he wanted them to go. He threw just nine of 24 sweepers/sliders in the strike zone and often missed big. That allowed hitters to sit on his fastballs and changeups – his weaker pitches – which mostly caught too much of the outside half of the zone to the righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup, who didn't miss much when they swung. It got to the point where Luzardo said he'll look into whether he was tipping his pitches after the start. 

But, as bad as Luzardo was in his past two outings, nothing looks unsalvageable. The first place we'd typically look when things go wrong for Luzardo is at the radar gun, but all looks well there – he averaged 96.5 mph with his four-seamer and 96.1 with his sinker in this one, right in line with his season-long averages. Nothing looks amiss there. 

And the movement profiles on his pitches mostly looked okay, too. His four-seamer was getting a bit more run than usual, which might explain why he was missing so much to the glove side. And his sweeper was getting a couple inches less vertical break, which is probably a sign that he just wasn't feeling the pitch well – and if you watched the start, it's clear he wasn't.

But it's also worth noting that, while he was bad Thursday, it's not like he was getting clobbered on every pitch. Only five of the 14 batted balls against him had an expected batting average over .500, and while there were a few more in the .470-.490 xBA range, it's not like the Blue Jays were just teeing off on him and crushing 100-mph liners all over the field. I don't want to say it was bad luck – Luzardo's command was bad enough to earn these results, especially on that sweeper, which has been his best pitch this season. But I don't think it was quite the disaster it looked to be from the line, and I do wonder if Luzardo might have been tipping his pitches, which could be something relatively easy to fix. 

So, where does that leave Luzardo moving forward? Honestly, I think I'm probably viewing him as a buy-low candidate at this point. I moved him down in my rankings this week – how could I not after 20 runs in two starts? – but I didn't bury him. He's still a top-100 player for me and a top-40 SP, and while I understand you might have trouble believing that after how bad the last two starts have been, I'm standing by it. His FIP for the season is still a very strong 2.90, while his xERA is worse but still in the 3.50 range. 

Which is to say, I think it would certainly be a mistake to drop Luzardo. And if you don't have him on your team, I think right now is the perfect time to try to trade for him. See if you can offer someone like Kodai Senga or Tyler Mahle for him straight up; their pretty ERAs hide much worse underlying metrics in both cases. 

Okay, sure, maybe you sit him the next time out, just to make sure he doesn't let this totally derail him – the fact that his next matchup is against the Cubs makes it easier to make the call to sit him, too. But Luzardo gets the Marlins the next time out after that, and I definitely want him around for that one.

Obviously, given Luzardo's injury history, there's a chance he's working through something, which would change my view entirely. But as long as Luzardo is healthy and throwing in the high-90s consistently, I'm going to bet on him getting back on track. That suddenly looks like a much bolder call than it did just a week or so ago. 

H2H Trade Values Chart

RankingPlayerValueEligible
1Aaron Judge48DH-OF
2Shohei Ohtani46DH-SP
3Bobby Witt43SS
4Jose Ramirez413B-DH
5Juan Soto41OF
6Corbin Carroll40OF
7Francisco Lindor37SS
8Fernando Tatis37OF
9Kyle Tucker37DH-OF
10Julio Rodriguez35OF
11Tarik Skubal32SP
12Mookie Betts30OF-SS
13Elly De La Cruz30SS
14Ketel Marte292B-DH
15Rafael Devers283B-DH
16Bryce Harper261B
17Freddie Freeman261B
18Zack Wheeler25SP
19Gunnar Henderson25DH-SS
20Manny Machado253B-DH
21Vladimir Guerrero251B-DH
22Ronald Acuna25OF
23Paul Skenes24SP
24Jarren Duran24OF
25Austin Riley233B
26James Wood23DH-OF
27Garrett Crochet23SP
28Jackson Merrill23OF
29Chris Sale22SP
30Wyatt Langford21DH-OF
31Pete Alonso211B
32Jackson Chourio21OF
33Kyle Schwarber21DH
34Brent Rooker21DH-OF
35Trea Turner21SS
36Marcell Ozuna21DH
37Matt Olson201B
38Dylan Cease20SP
39Jacob deGrom20SP
40Max Fried20SP
41Yoshinobu Yamamoto20SP
42Jazz Chisholm202B-3B-OF
43Logan Webb20SP
44Cole Ragans19SP
45Yordan Alvarez19DH-OF
46Hunter Brown19SP
47Spencer Schwellenbach18SP
48Framber Valdez18SP
49Seiya Suzuki17DH-OF
50Joe Ryan17SP
51Freddy Peralta17SP
52Carlos Rodon17SP
53Teoscar Hernandez17OF
54Kris Bubic16RP-SP
55Ozzie Albies162B
56Spencer Strider16SP
57Bryan Woo16SP
58Josh Hader16RP
59George Kirby16SP
60Riley Greene16DH-OF
61Mason Miller16RP
62William Contreras16C-DH
63Michael King16SP
64Edwin Diaz16RP
65Emmanuel Clase16RP
66Luis Castillo16SP
67Oneil Cruz16OF-SS
68Corey Seager16SS
69Hunter Greene15SP
70Cal Raleigh15C-DH
71Michael Harris15OF
72Bailey Ober15SP
73Sonny Gray15SP
74Pete Crow-Armstrong15OF
75Lawrence Butler15OF
76Seth Lugo15SP
77Isaac Paredes153B
78Robbie Ray15SP
79George Springer15DH-OF
80Jesus Luzardo15SP
81Randy Arozarena15OF
82Shota Imanaga15SP
83Andres Munoz15RP
84Christian Yelich15DH-OF
85Cristopher Sanchez15SP
86Steven Kwan15OF
87Logan Gilbert15SP
88Bryan Reynolds15DH-OF
89Zac Gallen15SP
90Brandon Nimmo15OF
91Nick Pivetta15SP
92MacKenzie Gore15SP
93Junior Caminero153B
94Tyler Glasnow15SP
95Jack Flaherty15SP
96Josh Naylor151B-DH
97Cody Bellinger151B-DH-OF
98Ian Happ15OF
99Will Smith15C
100Blake Snell15SP
101Vinnie Pasquantino151B-DH
102Paul Goldschmidt151B
103C.J. Abrams15SS
104Spencer Torkelson151B-DH
105Aaron Nola15SP
106Mike Trout15DH-OF
107Willson Contreras171B-C-DH
108Adley Rutschman15C-DH
109Willy Adames15SS
110Jose Altuve152B-DH-OF
111Tommy Edman152B-OF
112Eugenio Suarez153B
113Robert Suarez15RP
114Raisel Iglesias15RP
115Nathan Eovaldi15SP
116Rhys Hoskins151B-DH
117Jung Hoo Lee15OF
118Christian Walker151B
119Kevin Gausman15SP
120Gavin Williams15SP
121Justin Martinez14RP
122Nick Lodolo14SP
123Salvador Perez141B-C-DH
124Matthew Liberatore14RP-SP
125Jacob Wilson14SS
126Clay Holmes14RP-SP
127Bo Bichette14SS
128Nico Hoerner142B
129Zach Eflin14SP
130Brice Turang142B
131Trevor Megill14RP
132Anthony Santander14DH-OF
133Jhoan Duran13RP
134Matt Chapman133B
135Nick Castellanos12OF
136Ryan Helsley12RP
137Zachary Neto11SS
138Tanner Bibee11SP
139Felix Bautista10RP
140Yainer Diaz9C-DH
141Jeremy Pena9SS
142Shea Langeliers8C
143Jordan Westburg82B-3B-DH
144Kodai Senga8SP
145Luis Arraez81B-2B-DH
146Xavier Edwards8SS
147Bryce Miller8SP
148Jack Leiter8SP
149Kristian Campbell82B-OF
150Tyler Soderstrom81B-OF
151Royce Lewis83B-DH
152Max Muncy83B
153Brendan Donovan72B-OF-SS
154Maikel Garcia72B-3B-OF
155Kerry Carpenter7DH-OF
156Eury Perez7SP
157Corbin Burnes7SP
158Alex Bregman63B
159Ryan Weathers6SP
160J.T. Realmuto6C
161Dansby Swanson6SS
162Anthony Volpe6SS
163Brandon Lowe52B-DH
164Matt McLain52B-SS
165Jackson Holliday52B-SS
166Andrew Abbott5SP
167Bryson Stott52B
168Shane Baz5SP
169Logan O'Hoppe5C-DH
170Matthew Boyd5SP
171Gavin Sheets51B-DH-OF
172Dylan Crews5OF
173Masyn Winn5SS
174Adolis Garcia5DH-OF
175Ranger Suarez5SP
176Xander Bogaerts52B-SS
177Devin Williams5RP
178Jasson Dominguez5DH-OF
179Grayson Rodriguez5SP
180Luis Robert5OF
181Kyle Manzardo51B-DH
182Lourdes Gurriel5OF
183Ivan Herrera4C-DH
184Alec Bohm41B-3B
185Geraldo Perdomo4SS
186Drew Rasmussen4RP-SP
187Marcelo Mayer43B-SS
188Taj Bradley4SP
189Agustin Ramirez4C-DH
190Jordan Romano4RP
191Camilo Doval4RP
192Miguel Vargas31B-3B-OF
193Mark Vientos33B-DH
194Grant Holmes3RP-SP
195Pete Fairbanks3RP
196Addison Barger33B-OF
197Kenley Jansen3RP
198Mitch Keller3SP
199Logan Henderson3SP
200Colton Cowser3OF
201Cedric Mullins3OF
202Byron Buxton3OF
203Josh Jung33B
204Michael Busch31B
205Carlos Correa3SS
206Jake Burger31B-3B-DH
207Tanner Scott3RP
208Hayden Birdsong3RP-SP
209Gleyber Torres32B-DH
210Brenton Doyle3OF
211Chris Bassitt3SP
212Ryan Pepiot3SP
213Heliot Ramos3OF
214Austin Hays3DH-OF
215Ben Rice31B-DH
216Jorge Polanco32B-3B-DH
217Luis Garcia32B
218Nick Martinez3RP-SP
219Nolan Schanuel31B
220Edward Cabrera3SP

Roto Trade Values Chart

RankingPlayerValueEligible
1Aaron Judge49DH-OF
2Shohei Ohtani48DH-SP
3Bobby Witt45SS
4Jose Ramirez403B-DH
5Corbin Carroll38OF
6Fernando Tatis37OF
7Kyle Tucker34DH-OF
8Julio Rodriguez34OF
9Juan Soto33OF
10Elly De La Cruz33SS
11Francisco Lindor33SS
12Ronald Acuna33OF
13Rafael Devers303B-DH
14Tarik Skubal30SP
15Freddie Freeman291B
16Mookie Betts29OF-SS
17Bryce Harper281B
18Gunnar Henderson27DH-SS
19Zack Wheeler27SP
20Manny Machado263B-DH
21Ketel Marte262B-DH
22James Wood26DH-OF
23Vladimir Guerrero261B-DH
24Jarren Duran25OF
25Jackson Merrill25OF
26Paul Skenes24SP
27Austin Riley233B
28Jackson Chourio23OF
29C.J. Abrams23SS
30Kyle Schwarber23DH
31Trea Turner23SS
32Pete Alonso231B
33Oneil Cruz23OF-SS
34Brent Rooker21DH-OF
35Marcell Ozuna21DH
36Chris Sale21SP
37Garrett Crochet19SP
38Cole Ragans19SP
39Yoshinobu Yamamoto18SP
40Wyatt Langford18DH-OF
41Jazz Chisholm182B-3B-OF
42Framber Valdez18SP
43Yordan Alvarez21DH-OF
44Matt Olson181B
45Josh Hader17RP
46Jacob deGrom15SP
47Mason Miller15RP
48Emmanuel Clase15RP
49Logan Webb15SP
50Pete Crow-Armstrong15OF
51Andres Munoz15RP
52Max Fried15SP
53Edwin Diaz15RP
54Hunter Brown15SP
55Spencer Schwellenbach15SP
56Dylan Cease15SP
57Seiya Suzuki15DH-OF
58Freddy Peralta15SP
59Joe Ryan15SP
60Robert Suarez15RP
61Michael Harris15OF
62Bryan Woo15SP
63Jhoan Duran15RP
64Riley Greene15DH-OF
65Junior Caminero153B
66Teoscar Hernandez15OF
67Michael King15SP
68George Kirby15SP
69William Contreras15C-DH
70Lawrence Butler15OF
71Cal Raleigh15C-DH
72Robbie Ray15SP
73Corey Seager15SS
74MacKenzie Gore15SP
75Ozzie Albies152B
76Raisel Iglesias15RP
77Carlos Rodon15SP
78Spencer Strider15SP
79Kris Bubic15RP-SP
80Cristopher Sanchez15SP
81Randy Arozarena15OF
82Ryan Helsley15RP
83Sonny Gray15SP
84Jose Altuve152B-DH-OF
85Hunter Greene15SP
86Bailey Ober15SP
87Bryan Reynolds15DH-OF
88Ian Happ15OF
89Jack Flaherty15SP
90Nick Pivetta15SP
91Logan Gilbert15SP
92Christian Yelich15DH-OF
93Jesus Luzardo15SP
94Josh Naylor151B-DH
95Mike Trout15DH-OF
96Isaac Paredes153B
97Luis Robert15OF
98Shota Imanaga15SP
99Tyler Glasnow15SP
100Will Smith15C
101Seth Lugo15SP
102Brice Turang152B
103Tommy Edman152B-OF
104Steven Kwan15OF
105Zac Gallen15SP
106Luis Castillo15SP
107George Springer15DH-OF
108Adley Rutschman15C-DH
109Willson Contreras151B-C-DH
110Ivan Herrera15C-DH
111Yainer Diaz15C-DH
112Camilo Doval15RP
113Cody Bellinger151B-DH-OF
114Salvador Perez151B-C-DH
115Felix Bautista15RP
116Eugenio Suarez153B
117Kenley Jansen15RP
118Trevor Megill15RP
119Jordan Westburg142B-3B-DH
120Anthony Santander14DH-OF
121Shea Langeliers14C
122Kevin Gausman14SP
123Pete Fairbanks14RP
124Logan O'Hoppe14C-DH
125Zachary Neto14SS
126Bo Bichette14SS
127Nico Hoerner142B
128Nathan Eovaldi14SP
129Blake Snell14SP
130Aaron Nola13SP
131Christian Walker131B
132Tanner Bibee12SP
133Spencer Torkelson111B-DH
134Xavier Edwards11SS
135Agustin Ramirez10C-DH
136Paul Goldschmidt101B
137Kerry Carpenter9DH-OF
138Willy Adames9SS
139Rhys Hoskins91B-DH
140Vinnie Pasquantino81B-DH
141Matt Chapman83B
142Jacob Wilson7SS
143Nick Castellanos7OF
144Brendan Donovan72B-OF-SS
145Jung Hoo Lee7OF
146Dansby Swanson7SS
147Jasson Dominguez7DH-OF
148Brandon Nimmo7OF
149Ryan Weathers7SP
150Bryce Miller7SP
151Brenton Doyle7OF
152Gavin Williams7SP
153Maikel Garcia72B-3B-OF
154Tyler Soderstrom71B-OF
155Alex Bregman73B
156Shane Baz7SP
157Hunter Goodman7C-DH-OF
158Tanner Scott7RP
159Jackson Holliday72B-SS
160Kodai Senga7SP
161Bryson Stott72B
162Nick Lodolo7SP
163Andrew Abbott7SP
164J.T. Realmuto7C
165Chris Bassitt6SP
166Justin Martinez6RP
167Kyle Finnegan6RP
168Jeff Hoffman6RP
169Luis Arraez61B-2B-DH
170Jeremy Pena6SS
171Royce Lewis63B-DH
172Corbin Burnes7SP
173Ranger Suarez6SP
174Wilyer Abreu5OF
175Anthony Volpe5SS
176Heliot Ramos5OF
177Matt McLain52B-SS
178Byron Buxton5OF
179Victor Scott II5OF
180Geraldo Perdomo5SS
181Masyn Winn5SS
182Kristian Campbell52B-OF
183Lars Nootbaar5OF
184Jac Caglianone51B
185Dylan Crews5OF
186Clay Holmes5RP-SP
187Alec Bohm51B-3B
188Max Muncy53B
189Devin Williams5RP
190Jordan Beck5OF
191Taylor Ward4OF
192Gleyber Torres42B-DH
193Aroldis Chapman4RP
194Adolis Garcia4DH-OF
195Casey Mize4SP
196Zach Eflin4SP
197Drew Rasmussen4RP-SP
198Eury Perez4SP
199Austin Hays4DH-OF
200Cedric Mullins4OF
201Brandon Lowe42B-DH
202Mark Vientos43B-DH
203Marcus Semien42B
204Yandy Diaz41B-DH
205Carlos Estevez4RP
206Luis Garcia42B
207Carlos Correa3SS
208Josh Jung33B
209Ezequiel Tovar3SS
210Austin Wells3C
211David Bednar3RP
212Xander Bogaerts32B-SS
213Joshua Lowe3OF
214Parker Meadows3OF
215Dustin May3SP
216Colton Cowser3OF
217Kyle Stowers3OF
218Tyler O'Neill3OF
219Jorge Polanco32B-3B-DH
220Taj Bradley3SP
221Matthew Liberatore3RP-SP
222Matthew Boyd3SP
223Marcelo Mayer33B-SS
224Jonathan Aranda31B
225Jake Burger31B-3B-DH
226Addison Barger33B-OF
227Logan Henderson3SP
228Matt Shaw33B
229Mitch Keller3SP
230Jorge Soler2DH-OF
231Will Warren2SP
232Miguel Vargas21B-3B-OF
233Pablo Lopez2SP
234Ben Rice21B-DH
235Michael Busch21B
236TJ Friedl2OF
237Ryan Pepiot2SP
238Edward Cabrera2SP
239Grant Holmes2RP-SP
240Jeffrey Springs2SP
241Landen Roupp2RP-SP
242Andres Gimenez22B
243Jose Caballero22B-3B-OF-SS
244Noelvi Marte23B
245Max Meyer2SP
246Emilio Pagan2RP
247Kyle Manzardo21B-DH
248Yusei Kikuchi2SP
249Sandy Alcantara2SP