Biggest ADP Risers and Fallers, Stephen Strasburg's spring debut, velocity readings to know and more

Happy Hump Day, everybody. Something I like to do every Fantasy baseball draft season is pay attention to average draft position trends. While an overall ADP aggregate is pretty accurate, there are ways to dig even deeper. Over at the NFBC, you can actually sort their ADP by certain date ranges. So what we did on today's podcast was compare ADP from Jan. 9-Feb. 9 to the ADP from February 9-March 9. It might seem insignificant but it's not! I can assure you.

During just one month somebody like White Sox prospect Andrew Vaughn has moved up 60 spots in ADP. Chances are he'll move up another 60 spots over the next few weeks. On the other end, mid-round starting pitchers like Zach Plesac, Max Fried, Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy between six and 12 picks. That's pretty important to know, especially if those are targets for you. For the rest of the pod, we focused on Stephen Strasburg's spring debut and some other strong performances you need to know about. 

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Strasburg's spring debut

Strasburg returned to the mound for the first time in a long time, and despite facing an Astros lineup that featured many of their regulars, he racked up a really strong line: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K against Houston. After the game, Strasburg sounded optimistic about his return to the mound.

"It didn't really feel any different than it has in past springs," Strasburg said. "I guess in a way that's a relief."

Strasburg presents a bit of an unknown for Fantasy managers this draft season. While we don't have much data at all on pitchers getting carpal tunnel surgery, his procedure lasted just 15 minutes, according to Maria Torres of The Athletic. That would seem to suggest a more minor surgery. Strasburg currently has an ADP of 65.4 and he's the SP21, but that could change fast after this debut and if no health issues arise.

Chris threw a little cold water on the Strasburg bounce-back campaign, but he also revealed his range on the Nationals pitcher in his rankings: "The risk isn't gone. If he's able to pitch, that's good, but the risk that we had in our minds is still there. However, in Strasburg's case, as far as we know, this shouldn't be something that becomes a recurring injury. The hope is if he's right, and we get velocity readings and he's throwing 95, you can move forward with him as a top-25 SP."

ADP Risers

Chris sees the upside in Cron now that he signed in Colorado and he can get behind the rise in his ADP: "There's a lot to like about C.J. Cron. He had 55 home runs between 2018-2019 and that was not in a ton of plate appearances. 560 in 2018 and 499 in 2019. Coors Field is obviously a great place to hit for power, but it also boosts your BABIP as well. It's not inconceivable that playing half his games at Coors Field, Cron can hit .280 with 35 home runs and 100 RBIs. For Fantasy he can be a legitimate top-12 option if he stays healthy and gets the job. There's a lot to like about him as a late-round pick."

I think it's easy to get excited about Kolten Wong. If you need an MI in a Roto league, he's going to lead off for the Brewers, and if he stays healthy I can see 90+ runs and 20+ steals, and that's definitely valuable in a Roto league. 

And of course, Ohtani's ADP is climbing. And it's going to keep on climbing. That might give you reason to stay away, but Chris made the case for why that would be unwise. "I think if you get 120 innings out of Ohtani, he can be a top-15 SP on a per inning basis especially after he showed the stuff is back. In his first start, he was hitting 100MPH, he had the splitter, and he had multiple breaking balls."

ADP Fallers

Taylor Rogers reached 94 mph on his fastball in his most recent spring game and could end up a value if he gets more saves than anticipated. Rogers had an interview with the local broadcasters during the game and he was asked about the potential saves situation. Rogers said there was no reason to talk about it with manager Rocco Baldelli because they all know the bullpen will be splitting save opportunities depending on what Baldelli decides in each situation. This is something to keep an eye on if you're chasing saves late in drafts.

With the exception of Sonny Gray, Chris is lower than consensus on Zach Plesac and Max Fried even after this fall in their ADP. Chris was out on Dylan Bundy earlier, but with this drop in ADP, he's more likely to draft him. I feel the same way as Chris -- and yes I wrote him up as a potential ADP bust last month -- but everyone has a price. If he continues to fall, I can be interested there.

We both feel Dinelson Lamet is going to shoot up ADP with a couple more healthy innings and Chris will have no interest in drafting him at that price.

News and notes

1. David Price, who opted out last season, is not a lock for the Dodgers' rotation, but I kind of feel like this is being taken out of context. Manager Dave Roberts said he expects Price to be built up enough to be in opening-day rotation but added that Price is willing to fulfill "whatever role is best for the Dodgers in 2021." Price pitched a hitless inning with one strikeout against the White Sox on Monday

• There is no timetable yet for Carlos Carrasco's spring debut, per Mets manager Luis Rojas. Carrasco was a little late arriving to Mets camp in Port St. Lucie, Florida due to additional medical checkups related to his 2019 leukemia diagnosis. At what point do we start to worry? Chris says the only way we start to worry is if it affects his ability to be ready for opening day, and even then, he should be fine -- it's a long season -- assuming there are no issues.
• Alex Reyes will work as a long reliever this season. The goal is to get him 100 innings.
• Zach Britton is scheduled for arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone chip in his elbow. Apparently, he won't be ready for game action for 3-4 months. Chad Green is now the next man up behind Aroldis Chapman.
• George Springer is day to day with left abdominal tightness.
• Xander Bogaerts is getting close to 100%.
• Alex Bregman is not close to live game action.
• Yordan Alvarez could debut next week. The ADP on Alvarez is 81.4. There's risk here, but the upside is he can return first-round value.
• Jonathan Hernandez UCL injury. He will not pitch for the next month and potentially longer. 
• Willie Calhoun dealing with a tight groin.

Velocity readings to monitor

• Carlos Martinez averaged 92 MPH on his fastball Tuesday, but he averaged 95.8 MPH back in 2019 as a relief pitcher. The last time he was a full-time starter was back in 2017, and he averaged 95.6 MPH on his fastball then. Chris says that unless he gets back into at least that 94 MPH range, it's going to be pretty hard to get excited about him. It's harder to limit hard contact when you're throwing 3-4 MPH less.
• Deivi Garcia, who is battling for the Yankees' fifth starter job, averaged 93.6 MPH on his fastball Tuesday. Last year that was 92.3 MPH. He pitched three shutout innings with five Ks and five whiffs on 37 pitches. Please keep in mind it did come against the Tigers.
  

Here's what you might have missed

We're going to close out with the best content you might have missed from the day before. On Tuesday, Scott broke down the players with the biggest difference in value in Roto vs. H2H leagues. One of the most common questions we get is how to approach players in different formats, and no matter what your pleasure is, Scott has players you'll want to target to get an edge on your league. With so many drafts moving online, these players with more value in each respective format could end up one of your better values you'll draft if their ADP does not reflect the scoring -- and that's usually the case. Scott went deep on this one with players to target in each format at every position.

So which Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.