In the third of four midseason positional updates (1Bs/3Bs, Cs), this week we will take a look at how middle infielders have fared this season and how the performances of some have compared to our expectations. In assessing the scarcity level of productive second basemen and shortstops, all players who are regulars have been included and placed into one of four categories: The Elites, The Stars, The Bubble Guys and The Duds. These groupings of players by position will show us how many are producing at the highest levels and, therefore, how much the top talent at these positions is worth as compared to their peers at other positions. We will also be able to gauge the production level of a typical player and compare that against the norms at other positions.
Before moving on with the analysis, here are just a few reminders of how we look at position scarcity here at By the Numbers.
- Players at each position are initially ranked by their Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) so far this season. I use this measure, because it incorporates the gamut of offensive events that are captured in Fantasy scoring (and then some). It is also a per-game metric, so players who are or have been injured are not penalized.
- Initial rankings are then revised. Rankings for players who have not played much this season are adjusted based on their longer-term trends. Adjustments are also made for players whose performance this year is highly aberrant or not supported by skill indicators.
- Players who have a primary position other than second base or shortstop, but who are eligible at either position, have been included. For those who are eligible at both second and short, they have been listed as shortstops for the purposes of the analysis. The median level of productivity for second basemen is considerably higher than for shortstops, so if a player is eligible at both, it is best to play him at shortstop.
Second Basemen
The Elites: It's no surprise to see Chase Utley on this short list of elites, but Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler have both taken enormous leaps in their productivity that few expected. Both have increased their power dramatically, and Kinsler is managing this while cutting down his whiff rate (Uggla, not so much). With no other second basemen nowhere near this trio's lofty echelon, these three have to be considered among the most valuable players in Fantasy.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Dan Uggla | 12% | 31% | 0.322 | 35% | 70 | 8.6 | 99 |
| Ian Kinsler | 9% | 14% | 0.209 | 36% | 89 | 8.6 | 100 |
| Chase Utley | 10% | 16% | 0.294 | 29% | 83 | 8.5 | 100 |
The Stars: The dropoff to the second tier is substantial, but each of these players is performing, or has the potential to perform, well above the norm for their position. The surprise player on this list is Alexi Casilla, but it is clear from his skill numbers that he belongs here. As of right now, his skill profile is not much different from Dustin Pedroia's. His excellent whiff rate and speed are consistent with his minor league numbers, and his walk rate is likely to improve. Only his Isolated Power seems a little out of place, as he has never gone over .100 at any level above Class-A. As a 23 year-old, this leap in development is not unfathomable either. There aren't many of these second tier performers to go around, so Casilla's availability in so many leagues is welcome news for the legions of owners stuck with one of the Bubble Guys or Duds listed further below.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Brian Roberts | 11% | 19% | 0.196 | 35% | 69 | 7.0 | 99 |
| Mark DeRosa | 12% | 23% | 0.171 | 34% | 55 | 6.4 | 88 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 6% | 9% | 0.146 | 33% | 65 | 6.1 | 99 |
| Howie Kendrick | 2% | 18% | 0.158 | 39% | 29 | 5.8 | 79 |
| Alexi Casilla | 7% | 10% | 0.128 | 34% | 32 | 5.8 | 36 |
| B.J. Upton | 16% | 24% | 0.129 | 35% | 55 | 5.6 | 100 |
| Brandon Phillips | 6% | 17% | 0.198 | 30% | 56 | 5.3 | 100 |
The Bubble Guys: These are the guys who are solid picks for AL-only and NL-only leagues but borderline rosterable in mixed leagues. Kelly Johnson and Robinson Cano were not expected to make this list, and given their almost universal presence in CBSSports.com leagues, at least one owner in practically every league appears to be expecting a second half comeback. Based on his performance from last year -- his first full major league campaign -- Johnson should be hitting for at least as much power and average as Mark DeRosa. There is no reason to think he can't do it in the second half, and he is one of the higher-ceiling bubble choices. Cano's performance has been more enigmatic. He has been a completely different batter this year, making more contact, hitting more flyballs than in the past, but with much less power. Perhaps he has made adjustments or fixed his mechanics recently, because he has hit better over the past month. Cano, however, has a ways to go before his production returns to the level of the second tier.
So who among the majors' second basemen is Joe Average? Who is the personification of Fantasy fringeness? That would be Akinori Iwamura, who has the median RC/27 score for second basemen of 5.1 and a uniquely run-of-the-mill skill set. Congratulations, Aki. You are the latest addition to the All-Mr. Bubble Team.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Ray Durham | 13% | 19% | 0.124 | 35% | 43 | 6.0 | 13 |
| Ty Wigginton | 10% | 16% | 0.176 | 30% | 33 | 5.9 | 36 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 6% | 11% | 0.102 | 35% | 42 | 5.6 | 15 |
| Kelly Johnson | 10% | 21% | 0.160 | 32% | 49 | 5.5 | 92 |
| Orlando Hudson | 9% | 16% | 0.158 | 34% | 50 | 5.5 | 84 |
| Ronnie Belliard | 13% | 19% | 0.245 | 23% | 25 | 5.4 | 6 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 10% | 20% | 0.104 | 33% | 51 | 5.1 | 45 |
| Jeff Baker | 7% | 29% | 0.200 | 34% | 26 | 5.1 | 9 |
| Placido Polanco | 6% | 7% | 0.088 | 32% | 46 | 5.1 | 87 |
| Kazuo Matsui | 9% | 16% | 0.084 | 33% | 34 | 5.0 | 30 |
| Mark Ellis | 12% | 13% | 0.148 | 25% | 45 | 4.7 | 53 |
| Jose Lopez | 4% | 9% | 0.115 | 32% | 48 | 4.5 | 77 |
| Rickie Weeks | 11% | 23% | 0.152 | 26% | 39 | 4.3 | 80 |
| Jeff Kent | 5% | 12% | 0.154 | 26% | 33 | 3.9 | 57 |
| Robinson Cano | 4% | 9% | 0.114 | 26% | 33 | 3.3 | 98 |
The Duds: These are the second basemen to be avoided if at all possible, even in AL-only or NL-only leagues. If you are wondering where all of the AL Duds are, remember that players who are also eligible at shortstop are featured on that list instead of this one. It appears that the junior circuit has a number of players who are so versatile, that they can perform below replacement level at a variety of infield positions.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Jamey Carroll | 9% | 17% | 0.071 | 32% | 27 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Edgar Gonzalez | 6% | 24% | 0.117 | 37% | 21 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Luis Castillo | 14% | 9% | 0.069 | 28% | 32 | 4.3 | 17 |
| Aaron Hill | 7% | 15% | 0.098 | 30% | 24 | 4.0 | 25 |
| Bill Hall | 5% | 13% | 0.083 | 29% | 8 | 4.0 | 31 |
| Jose Castillo | 7% | 18% | 0.157 | 30% | 36 | 3.9 | 13 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | 9% | 23% | 0.084 | 33% | 27 | 3.9 | 9 |
| Adam Kennedy | 7% | 13% | 0.074 | 32% | 23 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 3% | 13% | 0.078 | 25% | 26 | 2.3 | 32 |
Shortstops
The Elites: As I was making performance projections back in February, I wrote that Hanley Ramirez represented one of the most scarce and valuable commodities in Fantasy baseball. Here's the evidence. As he did last season, he is providing Manny Ramirez-type production (even better, actually) at a position where David Eckstein is the typical player. (Oops, I gave away the identity of the next Mr. Bubble.) Jose Reyes is also a cut above the rest, but at least in the first half, Hanley has been in a class all his own.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Hanley Ramirez | 11% | 22% | 0.255 | 35% | 86 | 8.6 | 100 |
| Jose Reyes | 10% | 12% | 0.187 | 32% | 72 | 6.6 | 100 |
The Stars: Jimmy Rollins' power has inexplicably fallen off a cliff in the first half, and while still very good, he has not been producing on an elite level. Even more surprising is that Ramon Vazquez and Clint Barmes have been performing at least as well as Rollins so far. Vazquez's .310 average will fall as his 38 percent H/BIP rate decreases, but behind that fluky rate are still some very good skill stats for a middle infielder. Barmes' power and contact numbers are even better than Vazquez's, and they are indicative of the type of performance he produced prior to the unfortunate and career-stifling Deer Meat Incident of 2005. It may seem crazy to rank Vazquez and Barmes ahead of Fantasy stalwarts Derek Jeter and Orlando Cabrera, but when you compare their skill and per-at-bat Fantasy stats, Vazquez and Barmes are clearly having more productive seasons. Like Alexi Casilla, both shortstops are widely available and more than good enough to be plugged into a mixed league lineup.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Ramon Vazquez | 11% | 20% | 0.165 | 38% | 40 | 6.9 | 22 |
| J.J. Hardy | 10% | 16% | 0.195 | 31% | 50 | 5.8 | 95 |
| Carlos Guillen | 11% | 14% | 0.150 | 31% | 52 | 5.7 | 99 |
| Michael Young | 7% | 16% | 0.127 | 35% | 58 | 5.6 | 99 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 9% | 10% | 0.163 | 28% | 45 | 5.6 | 100 |
| Clint Barmes | 6% | 17% | 0.185 | 34% | 29 | 5.5 | 47 |
| Ryan Theriot | 11% | 10% | 0.050 | 35% | 50 | 5.3 | 87 |
| Cristian Guzman | 4% | 8% | 0.112 | 33% | 56 | 5.3 | 88 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 3% | 13% | 0.151 | 33% | 31 | 5.0 | 58 |
| Miguel Tejada | 5% | 12% | 0.150 | 29% | 46 | 4.4 | 99 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 6% | 21% | 0.213 | 29% | 44 | 4.4 | 86 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 9% | 15% | 0.132 | 18% | 9 | 1.8 | 57 |
The Bubble Guys: In addition to Jeter and Cabrera, Yunel Escobar has been an unpleasant surprise this year. His skill stats are not much better than the bubblelicious Eckstein's, and as a result, his batting average and runs scored are down significantly from '07. Whether it's these three underachievers, or the usual bubble suspects, like Eckstein or Jack Wilson, your typical major league shortstop is a contact hitter with minimal power. Stephen Drew and Mike Aviles are exceptions, but over the long haul, both will hit for a lower average due to their higher whiff rates. Nick Punto and Jerry Hairston can provide steals, but neither will sustain their current high batting averages, as their aberrant H/BIP and Isolated Power numbers are due to come crashing down.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Jerry Hairston | 7% | 14% | 0.145 | 40% | 40 | 8.2 | 47 |
| Nick Punto | 10% | 15% | 0.147 | 37% | 18 | 6.1 | 5 |
| Mike Aviles | 4% | 16% | 0.181 | 33% | 19 | 4.8 | 43 |
| Stephen Drew | 5% | 18% | 0.199 | 29% | 46 | 4.8 | 90 |
| Derek Jeter | 7% | 12% | 0.112 | 32% | 46 | 4.6 | 99 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 8% | 4% | 0.095 | 29% | 28 | 4.6 | 30 |
| Erick Aybar | 3% | 14% | 0.108 | 32% | 27 | 4.5 | 20 |
| Yunel Escobar | 10% | 13% | 0.096 | 32% | 42 | 4.5 | 91 |
| Damion Easley | 6% | 11% | 0.096 | 32% | 22 | 4.4 | 3 |
| David Eckstein | 9% | 10% | 0.082 | 30% | 27 | 4.3 | 9 |
| Jack Wilson | 5% | 8% | 0.061 | 33% | 20 | 4.3 | 8 |
| Orlando Cabrera | 9% | 12% | 0.095 | 29% | 47 | 4.2 | 92 |
The Duds: There are an awful lot of shortstops you need to avoid, but keep in mind that several of these players -- from Aaron Miles to Donnie Murphy to the Izturises -- are eligible at other positions. Then again, if someone like Brendan Ryan isn't hitting enough to be rostered as a shortstop, he'd do you about as much good as Buddy Ryan if you put him at third base. Though this may be a shock to his many owners, Edgar Renteria fits nicely into this group. Note how unfavorably his skill and per-at-bat Fantasy numbers compare with that of Maicer Izturis. Then start scouring the waiver wire to see if Ramon Vazquez, Clint Barmes or Alexei Ramirez is available as a replacement.
| Player | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | H/BIP | Runs Created | RC/27 | Own % |
| Emmanuel Burriss | 7% | 11% | 0.054 | 32% | 14 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Aaron Miles | 6% | 9% | 0.055 | 34% | 26 | 4.2 | 5 |
| Marco Scutaro | 11% | 15% | 0.063 | 30% | 33 | 4.2 | 9 |
| Brendan Harris | 7% | 23% | 0.116 | 32% | 35 | 4.0 | 15 |
| Maicer Izturis | 8% | 9% | 0.077 | 29% | 27 | 3.9 | 15 |
| Bobby Crosby | 8% | 17% | 0.115 | 30% | 38 | 3.9 | 37 |
| Julio Lugo | 12% | 20% | 0.061 | 33% | 31 | 3.9 | 26 |
| Cesar Izturis | 8% | 5% | 0.066 | 25% | 22 | 3.6 | 3 |
| Omar Quintanilla | 5% | 20% | 0.106 | 31% | 17 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | 11% | 5% | 0.140 | 21% | 6 | 3.2 | 24 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 2% | 6% | 0.108 | 28% | 30 | 3.2 | 32 |
| Jason Bartlett | 5% | 15% | 0.037 | 30% | 25 | 3.1 | 11 |
| Edgar Renteria | 7% | 12% | 0.072 | 28% | 28 | 3.1 | 74 |
| Khalil Greene | 6% | 25% | 0.115 | 27% | 31 | 3.0 | 49 |
| Donnie Murphy | 10% | 36% | 0.132 | 26% | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brendan Ryan | 6% | 17% | 0.044 | 30% | 14 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Felipe Lopez | 9% | 16% | 0.079 | 27% | 26 | 2.9 | 19 |
| Adam Everett | 6% | 12% | 0.135 | 20% | 6 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Fahey | 2% | 15% | 0.115 | 27% | 4 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Omar Vizquel | 9% | 11% | 0.020 | 17% | 6 | 1.3 | 2 |
The conventional wisdom is that middle infield production is the hardest to find. While there are a fair number of second-tier shortstops available, there is less second-tier talent at second base than at any other position we have reviewed so far. So not only are Utley, Kinsler and Uggla especially valuable, but so are Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia and others of their ilk.
Conventional thinking about middle infielders holds up even better when considering the value of the Bubble Guys. Not surprisingly, the median RC/27 is lower for the middle infield positions than for the corner infield positions. The gap will probably grow in the second half, as long as several of the slow-starting first basemen start to pick up their pace in the final three months. This may seem like common sense, but the implication is not so obvious. Though an average corner infielder like Casey Blake will produce far more than someone like Eckstein, he is not really any harder to replace. If this were more apparent, Eckstein would be owned in far more than nine percent of our leagues, and Blake would be owned in far fewer than 57 percent.
| Position | Median RC/27 | Mr. Bubble |
| Catcher | 4.3 | Gregg Zaun |
| First Base | 5.2 | James Loney |
| Second Base | 5.1 | Akinori Iwamura |
| Third Base | 5.5 | Casey Blake |
| Shortstop | 4.3 | David Eckstein |
The last installment of this series will cover Fantasy outfielders, which will be in this space in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, enjoy the All-Star break and the (mostly) elite talent that will be on display.
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera
would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his
statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
